Forecasts and Planning Tools

Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts

Forecasting Oregon Coho Marine Survival

February 2005 archive copy

People Involved

• Elizabeth Logerwell (contact person), NOAA Fisheries/Alaska Fishery Science Center
• Nathan Mantua, University of Washington, Climate Impacts Group
• Peter Lawson, NOAA Fisheries/Newport Lab
• Robert Francis, University of Washington, Climate Impacts Group and School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences
• Vera Agostini, University of Washington, Climate Impacts Group and School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences

Marine survival rates for Oregon coho salmon are influenced by several sequential environmental processes that affect coastal ocean food webs:

1. Winter climate prior to smolt migration from rivers to the ocean;
2. Date of occurrence of the “spring transition”, the period when alongshore winds (off the Pacific Northwest (PNW) coast) shift from being mostly northward to mostly southward;
3. Total coastal upwelling during the spring;
4. Ocean conditions during the maturing cohos’ only winter at sea.

By monitoring conditions during each cohort’s lifecycle, we can provide an experimental forecast of Oregon coho marine survival rates.

Recent and Forecasted Conditions

*January-March sea surface temperature is estimated using the long-term (1948-2000) mean plus/minus one standard deviation from the mean.

Current Forecast

Issue date: February 7, 2005 (update of November 2004 forecast)

FORECAST RETURN RATE FOR ADULTS RETURNING FALL 2005 (mean rate): 2% (+/- 1%)

Although January 2005 sea surface temperatures were cold, and therefore beneficial to Oregon coastal coho marine survival, the cold temperatures do not appear to make up for previously warm coastal ocean conditions. This suggests relatively poor marine survival rates for Oregon coastal coho due to return as spawning adults in 2005.

Next Forecast Update:
Spring 2005 (approx. April 2005)

Past Forecast Performance

See Figure 1 for the model’s performance at hindcasting for the period 1969-1998.

Forecast Methodology

To better understand and predict Oregon coho marine survival, we developed a conceptual model (Figure 2) of key environmental processes that influence coastal ocean food webs and ultimately marine survival rates for Oregon coho salmon. The key processes are sequential:

1. winter climate prior to smolt migration from rivers to the ocean;
2. date of occurrence of the spring transition, when alongshore winds (off the PNW coast) shift from being mostly northward to mostly southward;
3. total coastal upwelling during the spring;
4. ocean conditions during the maturing cohos’ only winter at sea.

We then parameterized a general additive model (GAM) with Oregon Production Index (OPI) coho smolt-to-adult survival estimates from 1970-2001 and the environmental processes listed above. For the model training period (smolt year data from 1969-2000), the GAM explained 75% of the variance in observed OPI smolt-to-adult survival rates.

Selected References

Logerwell, E. A., N. J. Mantua, P. Lawson, R. C. Francis, and V. Agostini. 2003. Tracking environmental processes in the coastal zone for understanding and predicting Oregon coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) marine survival. Fisheries Oceanography 12(3):1-15.