Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest

Readings:

Rhythms of Change (ROC), Chapter 1: The Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on the Pacific Northwest, by A.K. Snover and E.L. Miles.

Report: Climate change to wallop state - Seattle Times, Wednesday, February 11, 2009.

Less water, more heat forecast for state - Seattle Post-Intelligencer , Wednesday, February 11, 2009.

Kaje, J. 1999. Kaje System: A conceptual modeling tool for interdisciplinary research. (will be handed out in class)

Readings:

Rhythms of Change (ROC), Chapter 4: The Underlying Rhythms: Patterns of Pacific Northwest Climate Variability, by N.J. Mantua, P.W. Mote.

Lippsett, L. 2000. Beyond El Niño. Scientific American 11(1):77-83.

Background material (optional):

Mantua, N.J., and S.R. Hare. 2002. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Journal of Oceanography 58(1):35-44.

Mass, C. 2008. The Weather of the Pacific Northwest. Seattle: University of Washington Press.

Zebiak, S. 1999. El Niño and the science of climate prediction. Consequences 5(2).

Readings:

Sarachik, E.S. and M.A. Cane. 2009 (in press). Using ENSO information, Chapter 10 in The El Nino-Southern Oscillation Phenomenon. Cambridge Unversity Press.

Sarachik, E. 1999. The Application of Climate Information. Consequences 5(2).

National Research Council. 1999. Summary, pages 1-6 in Making Climate Forecasts Matter. National Academy Press: Washington, D.C.

Hickson, D.J. 1987. Decision-making at the top of organizations. Annual Reviews of Sociology 13:165-192.

Jacobs, K. 2002. Connecting Science, Policy, and Decision-making: A handbook for researchers and science agencies. Silver Spring, Maryland, NOAA Office of Global Programs: 25. (will be handed out in class)

Background material (optional):

Case studies of past climate events...

Changnon, S. 1999. Impacts of the 1997-98 El Niño generated weather in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80(9): 1819-1827.

Changnon, S.A. and D.R. Vonnahme. 2003. Impact of Spring 2003 drought forecasts on midwestern water management. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 129(1): 18-25.

Changnon, S.A. and D. Changnon. 2005. Lessons from the unusual impacts of an abnormal winter in the USA. Meteorological Applications 12:187-191.

Glantz, M.H. 1982. Consequences and responsibilities in drought forecasting: The case of Yakima, 1977. Water Resources Research 18(1):3-13.

Psychology and decision making...

Baron, J. 2000. Thinking and Deciding, 3rd ed. Cambridge University Press. 570pp. ... "The one psychology book to read if you're only going to read one," Ed Sarachik.

Rogers, E.M. 2004. Diffusion of Innovations. New York: The Free Press.

Lewis, H.W. 1998. Why Flip a Coin? The Art and Science of Good Decisions. John Wiley & Sons.

Kahneman, D. [recent Nobel prize winner] and A. Tversky. 1982. The psychology of preferences. Scientific American January:136-142.

Climate conditions and predictions...

International Research Institute for Climate Prediction.

Animated movie of recent tropical ocean conditions on the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center website.

Readings:

Mote, P.W. 2003. Trends in temperature and precipitation in the Pacific Northwest during the twentieth century. Northwest Science 77(4): 271-282.

Pages 1-7 of: Climate Impacts Group. 2009. Executive Summary, The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, edited by J. Littell, M.M. Elsner, L. Whitely Binder and A. Snover. University of Washington.

Summary of current PNW climate change scenarios.

Mote, P. W. and E. S. Salathé. 2009. Future climate in the Pacific Northwest. Chapter 1 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, edited by J. Littell, M.M. Elsner, L. Whitely Binder and A. Snover. A report by the Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington.

National Academies. 2008. Understanding and Responding to Climate Change: Highlights of the National Academies Reports. A report by the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, Institute of Medicine, National Research Council.

Background material (optional):

IPCC, 2007. Summary for Policymakers. In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. For more information, you can also check out the Technical Summary (included in above link) and full report.

Karl, T.R. and K.E. Trenberth. 2003. Modern Global Climate Change. Science 302(5651): 1719-1723.

Rahmstorf, S., A. Cazanave, J. Church, J. Hansen, R. Keeling, D. Parker, and R. Somerville. 2007. Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science Express, 1 Feb 2007. 10.1126/science 1136843.

Nakicenovic, N. et al. 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Or download the Summary for Policymakers.

M.R. Raupach, G. Marland, P. Ciais, C. Le Quéré, J.G. Canadell, G. Klepper, and C.B. Field. 2007. Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104(24):10288-10293. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0700609104.

Salathé, E.P., Jr., L.R. Leung, Y. Qian, and Y. Zhang. 2009. Regional climate model projections for the State of Washington. Chapter 2 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, edited by J. Littell, M.M. Elsner, L. Whitely Binder and A. Snover. A report by the Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington.

Bonfils, C., D.W. Pierce, B.D. Santer, H. Hidalgo, G. Bala, T. Das, T. Barnett, C. Doutriaux, A.W. Wood, A, Mirin, and T. Nazawa. 2008. Detection and attribution of temperature changes in the mountainous western United States. Journal of Climate 21(23):6404–6424, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2397.1.

See also:

Real Climate: Climate science from climate scientists, a blog by climate scientists discussing climate science advancements and climate science in the news.

A compendium of climate change online resources.

Climate Leadership Initiative (University of Oregon). 2009. Setting the Record Straight: Responses to common challenges to climate science.

Readings:

Smithers, J. and B. Smit. 1997. Human adaptation to climatic variability and change. Global Environmental Change 7 (2):129-146.

Adger, W. N., N. W. Arnell, and E. L. Tompkins. 2005b. Successful adaptation to climate change across scales. Global Environmental Change 15:77-86.

Vogel, C. and K. O'Brien. 2004. Vulnerability and global environmental change: Rhetoric and reality. AVISO 13.

Executive Summary, Chapters 4, 7, 8, 9 and Sections 10.2-10.4 in ... Snover, A.K., L.C. Whitely Binder, J. Lopez, E. Willmott, J.E. Kay, D. Howell, and J. Simmonds. 2007. Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments. In association with and published by ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability, Oakland, CA. ... Handed out in class.

As preparation for the group project ... This American Life (Radio Show). 2008. Prologue: Ruining it for the Rest of Us. Episode #370. 19 December. ... Listen to the first 12 minutes -- go through the show description at about 7.5 minutes.

Background material (optional):

Jacobs, K. 2002. Connecting Science, Policy, and Decision-making: A handbook for researchers and science agencies. Silver Spring, Maryland, NOAA Office of Global Programs: 25. (will be handed out in class)

Readings:

Saunders, S. and M. Maxwell. 2005. Less snow, less water: Climate disruption in the west. Rocky Mountain Climate Organization.

Rhythms of Change (ROC), Chapter 6: Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Water Resources, by A. F. Hamlet, P. Mote, A. K. Snover.

Pages 8-11 of: Climate Impacts Group. 2009. Executive Summary, The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, edited by J. Littell, M.M. Elsner, L. Whitely Binder and A. Snover. University of Washington.

Elsner, M.M., L. Curo, N. Voisin, J.S. Deems, A.F. Hamlet, J.A. Vano, K.E.B. Mickelson, S.-Y. Lee and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2009. Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington state. Chapter 3a in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, edited by J. Littell, M.M. Elsner, L. Whitely Binder and A. Snover. University of Washington.

Miles, E.L., A.K. Snover, A. Hamlet, B. Callahan, and D. Fluharty. 2000. Pacific Northwest regional assessment: The impacts of climate variability and climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 36(2):399-420. ... this assessment was done with a previous generation of climate change scenarios but still is worthwhile for its demonstration of an integrated assessment of sensitivity, adaptability, vulnerability to climate impacts.

Background material (optional):

Service, R.F. 2004. As the West goes dry. Science 303(5661):1124-1127.

Historical trends in PNW snowpack and hydrology:

Mote, P.W., A.F. Hamlet and E.P. Salathé. 2008. Has spring snowpack declined in the Washington Cascades? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussion 12:193-206. SRef-ID: 1812-2116/hessd/2007-4-2073.

Casola, J.H., L. Cuo, B. Livneh, D.P. Lettenmaier, M. Stoelinga, P.W. Mote, and J.M. Wallace. 2009 (in press). Assessing the impacts of global warming on snowpack in the Washington Cascades. Journal of Climate doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2612.1.

Stoelinga, M.T., M.D. Albright, and C.F. Mass. 2009. A new look at snowpack trends in the Cascade Mountains. Journal of Climate, submitted.

Barnett, T., D.W. Pierce, H. Hidalgo, C. Bonfils, B.D. Santer, T. Das, G. Bala, A.W. Wood, T. Nazawa, A, Mirin, D. Cayan, and M. Dettinger. 2008. Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States. Science Science Express Reports 10.1126/science.1152538.

Pierce, D.W., T. Barnett, H. Hidalgo, T. Das, C. Bonfils, B.D. Santer, G. Bala, M. Dettinger, D. Cayan, A, Mirin, A.W. Wood, and T. Nazawa. 2008. Attribution of declining western U.S. snowpack to human effects. Journal of Climate 21(23): 6425–6444, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2405.1.

Readings:

Payne, J. T., A. W. Wood, A. F. Hamlet, R.N. Palmer, and D. P. Lettenmaier. 2004. Mitigating the effects of climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River basin. Climatic Change 62(1-3):233-256.

Appendix N: Effects of Climate Change on the Hydroelectric System, in: Northwest Power and Conservation Council, 2005. The Fifth Northwest Electric Power and Conservation Plan. Document 2005-7. May.

Hamlet, A.F., S.-Y. Lee , K.E.B. Mickelson, M.M. Elsner. 2009. Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State. Chapter 4 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, edited by J. Littell, M.M. Elsner, L. Whitely Binder and A. Snover. University of Washington.

Pages 10-11 of: Climate Impacts Group. 2009. Executive Summary, The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, edited by J. Littell, M.M. Elsner, L. Whitely Binder and A. Snover. University of Washington.

Background material (optional):

Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACOE), Bureau of Reclamation (USBR). 2001. The Columbia River System: The Inside Story, Second Edition. Updated version of report DOE/BP-1689 published for the Columbia River System Review by the USACOE and the USBR, September. This report has good background material on the treaties underlying operation of the Columbia River and the initial operating objectives of the system.

National Research Council. 2004. Managing the Columbia River: Instream Flows, Water Withdrawals, and Salmon Survival. National Academies Press.

Snover, A. K., A. F. Hamlet, and D. P. Lettenmaier. 2003. Climate change scenarios for water planning studies: Pilot applications in the Pacific Northwest. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84(11):1513-1518.

Readings:

Rhythms of Change (ROC), Chapter 7: PNW salmon and climate, by N. J. Mantua, R. C. Francis, and P. W. Mote.

Schindler, D.E., X. Augerot, E. Fleishman, N. Mantua, B. Riddell, M. Ruckelshaus, J. Seeb, and M. Webster. 2008. Climate change, ecosystem impacts, and management for Pacific salmon. Fisheries 33(10):502-506.

Pages 13-14 of: Climate Impacts Group. 2009. Executive Summary, The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, edited by J. Littell, M.M. Elsner, L. Whitely Binder and A. Snover. University of Washington.

Mantua, N. J. and P. W. Mote. 2002. Uncertainty in scenarios of human-caused climate change. American Fisheries Society Symposium 32: 263-272.

Background material (optional):

Mantua, N., I. Tohver, and A. Hamlet. 2009. Impacts of climate change on key aspects of freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State. Chapter 6 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, edited by J. Littell, M.M. Elsner, L. Whitely Binder and A. Snover. University of Washington.

Farrell, A.P., S.G. Hinch, S.J. Cooke, D.A. Patterson, G.T. Crossin, M. Lapointe and M.T. Mathes. 2008. Pacific salmon in hot water: Applying aerobic scope models and biotelemetry to predict the success of spawning migrations. Physiological and Biochemical Zoology 81(6):697-709.

Crozier, L., R.W. Zabel and A.H. Hamlet. 2008. Predicting differential effects of climate change at the population level with life-cycle models of spring Chinook salmon. Global Change Biology 14(2):236-249.

Ruckelshaus, M., N. Mantua, and R. Francis. 2004. "Wisely investing in stocks of Pacific Northwest salmon". Seattle Times. March 26.

Lindley et al. 2009. What caused the Sacramento River fall Chinook stock collapse? Pre-publication report to the Pacific Fishery Management Council.

Readings:

Battin, J., M.W. Wiley, M. H. Ruckelshaus, R. N. Palmer, K.K. Bartz, H. Imaki, E. Korb. 2007. Projected impacts of climate change on salmon habitat restoration. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104:6720-6725.

Mantua, N.J. and R.C. Francis. 2004. Natural climate insurance for Pacific Northwest salmon and salmon fisheries: Finding our way through the entangled bank. pp. 127-140, in E.E. Knudsen and D. MacDonald (eds), Fish in our Future? Perspectives on Fisheries Sustainability. A special publication of the American Fisheries Society.

Background material (optional):

Zabel, R.W., M.D. Scheuerell, M.M. McClure, and J.G. Williams. 2006. The interplay between climate variability and density dependence in the population viability of Chinook salmon. Conservation Biology 20(1): 190-200. doi: 10.1111/ j.1523-1739.2005.00300.x

Ruckelshaus, M. H., P. Levin, J. B. Johnson, and P. M. Kareiva. 2002. The Pacific salmon wars: What science brings to the challenge of recovering species. Annual Review of Ecological Systems 33: 665-706.

Levin, S. A. 1993. Forum: Science and sustainability. Ecological Applications 3(4).

Ludwig, D., R. Hilborn, and C. Walters. 1993. Uncertainty, resource exploitation, and conservation: Lessons from history. Ecological Applications 3(4): 547-549.

Holling, C. S. 1993. Investing in research for sustainability. Ecological Applications 3(4): 552-555.

Readings:

Pages 1-22 in Rhythms of Change (ROC), Chapter 8: Climate Impacts on PNW forest ecosystems, by W. S. Keeton, J. F. Franklin, and P. W. Mote.

Littell, J.S., E.E. O'Neil, D. McKenzie, J.A. Hicke, J.A. Lutz, R.A. Norheim, M.M. Elsner. 2009. Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA. Chapter 7 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, edited by J. Littell, M.M. Elsner, L. Whitely Binder and A. Snover. University of Washington.

Pages 14-15 of: Climate Impacts Group. 2009. Executive Summary, The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, edited by J. Littell, M.M. Elsner, L. Whitely Binder and A. Snover. University of Washington.

Nijhuis, M. 2004. "Global warming's unlikely harbingers". High Country News 36(13): July 19.

Running, S. W. 2006. Is global warming causing more, larger wildfires? Science 313(5789):927.

Westerling, A. L., H. G. Hidalgo, D. R. Cayan, T. W. Swetnam. 2006. Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity. Science 313(5789):940-943.

Background material (optional):

Rosenzweig, C., G. Casassa, D.J. Karoly, A. Imeson, C. Liu, A. Menzel, S. Rawlins, T.L. Root, B. Seguin, P. Tryjanowski, 2007: Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 79-131.

Shugart, H., R. Sedjo and B. Sohngen. 2003. Forests and Global Climate Change: Potential impacts on U.S. forest resources. A report prepared for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change. February.

Recent trends:

Peterson, D.L. 1994. Recent changes in the growth and establishment of subalpine conifers in western North America, pp. 234-243. In M. Beniston (ed.), Mountain Environments in Changing Climates.

van Mantgem, P.J. et al. 2009. Widespread increase of tree mortality rates in the western United States. Science 323:521-524. DOI: 10.1126/science.1165000.

Boisvenue, C. and S. W. Running. 2006. Impacts of climate change on natural forest producitivity - evidence since the middle of the 20th century. Global Change Biology 12:862-882.

Whitlock, C. 1992. Vegetational and climatic history of the Pacific Northwest during the last 20,000 years: Implications for understanding present-day biodiversity. The Northwest Environmental Journal 8:5-28. ... This paper examines ecological, climatological and geological processes of the past to derive an understanding of present patterns of biodiversity and the implications of future climate change for the PNW.

Readings:

Appendix A: Case Studies. In Climate Change Science Program (CCSP). 2008. Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. [Julius, S.H., J.M. West (eds.), J.S. Baron, L.A. Joyce, P. Kareiva, B.D. Keller, M.A. Palmer, C.H. Peterson, and J.M. Scott (Authors)]. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA.

Littell, J.S., D.L. Peterson, C.I. Millar, K.A. O'Halloran. 2009. U.S. National Forests adapt to climate change through science-management partnerships. Climatic Change, in review.

Readings:

Rhythms of Change (ROC), Chapter 9: Climate Impacts on PNW coasts, by D. J. Canning, P. W. Mote, Z. Johnson, J. C. Field, J. Newton, and M. J. Hershman. ... and then skim the recent version to see how the climate change projections have been updated: Huppert, D.D., A. Moore, K. Dyson. 2009. Impacts of climate change on the coasts of Washington state. Chapter 8 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, edited by J. Littell, M.M. Elsner, L. Whitely Binder and A. Snover. University of Washington. OR

Pages 16-17 of: Climate Impacts Group. 2009. Executive Summary, The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, edited by J. Littell, M.M. Elsner, L. Whitely Binder and A. Snover. University of Washington.

Mote, P.W., A. (Sascha) Petersen, S. Reeder, H. Shipman, and L.C. Whitely Binder. 2008. Sea Level Rise in the Coastal Waters of Washington State. Report prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington and the Washington Department of Ecology, Lacey, Washington.

Hood, W.G. 2005. Sea level rise in the Skagit delta. Skagit River Tidings: Newsletter of the Skagit Watershed Council.

Glick, P., J. Clough and B. Nunley. 2007. Sea-level Rise and Coastal Habitats in the Pacific Northwest: An analysis for Puget Sound, southwestern Washington, and Northwestern Oregon. The National Wildlife Federation.

Readings:

Note: this may look like a lot, but they are all very short. Please read!

National Research Council. 2006. Mitigating Shore Erosion on Sheltered Coasts. A report in brief from the US National Academies, Washington DC.

The Heinz Center and Ceres. 2009. Resilient Coasts: A blueprint for action. Washington, D.C.

Oregon Sea Grant. 2009. Surveys about adapting to changing climate reveal coastal concerns. Press Release. 19 January.

West Coast Governors' Agreement on Ocean Health. 2008 background news clips.

West Coast Governors' Agreement on Ocean Health, Climate Change Action Coordination Team. Workplan.

Washington State Senate Bill 5560 (Sections 10 thru 13 are the relevant ones). 61st Legislature. 2009.

Background on the state's Shoreline Master Program.

Readings:

Heller, N.E. and E.S. Zavaleta. 2009. Biodiversity management in the fact of climate change: A review of 22 years of recommendations. Biological Conservation 124:14-32.

Parmesan, C. 2006. Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution and Systematics 37:637-669. doi: 10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100.

Background material (optional):

Lawler, J.J., S.L. Shafer, D. White, P. Kareiva, E.P. Maurer, A.R. Blaustein and P.J. Bartlein. 2009. Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere. Ecology 90(3):588-597.

Readings:

Glick, P., A. Staudt, B. Stein. 2009. A New Era for Conservation: Review of climate change adaptation literature. A report by the National Wildlife Federation. Prepared for "Adaptation 2009: Safeguarding Fish, Wildlife and Natural Systems in the Face of Climate Change. Washington, DC 18-19 February 2009. Discussion Draft, 9 February.

Theoharides, K., G. Barnhart, and P. Glick. 2009. Climate Change Adaptation across the Landscape: A survey of federal and state agencies, conservation organizations and academic institutions in the United States. A report by The Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies, Defenders of Wildlife, The Nature Conservancy and The National Wildlife Federation. Prepared for "Adaptation 2009: Safeguarding Fish, Wildlife and Natural Systems in the Face of Climate Change. Washington, DC 18-19 February 2009.

Readings:

Pollan, M. 1991. The Idea of a Garden. In Second Nature: A Gardener's Education, pp. 209-238. New York, NY, Atlantic Monthly Press: 258.

Walker, B., S. Carpenter, et al. 2002.eatResilience management in social-ecological systems: A working hypothesis for a participatory approach. Conservation Ecology 6(1): 14.

Readings:

Miles, E. L., A. K. Snover, L. C. Whitely Binder, E. Sarachik, P. W. Mote, and N. J. Mantua. 2006. An approach to designing a National Climate Service. Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences 103(52):19616–19623.

Climate Services Coordinating Committee. 2009. Options for Developing a National Climate Service. A report from the Climate Services Corrdinating Committee with option assessments provided by four Tiger Teams. 2 February.

A BILL to establish a National Climate Service at the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Draft. Congressman Norm Dicks. May 2009.