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Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest

Winter Quarter 2011

ATMS 585A / ENVIR 585A / ESS 585A / SMA 585A
Amy Snover & Nathan Mantua

Course Schedule and Readings

Note: Links may be updated at any time during the course and short readings added. Be sure to refresh your browser view of this file to ensure that you're working with the corrected links. Where discrepancies exist between the readings listed online and in the syllabus handed out on the first day of class, the online version should be followed.

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Use the shortcuts to jump to a specific day...
Week Tuesdays Thursdays Friday
Date Topic Assignment Date Topic Assignment Assignment
1 Jan 4 Introduction   Jan 6 Climate variability  
2 Jan 11 Using climate forecasts Climate variability data assignment and climate variability Kaje due Jan 13 Climate change   WP: list of potential topics/issue areas due
3 Jan 18 Planning for climate change Climate change Kaje and data assignment due Jan 20 Climate impacts on water    
4 Jan 25 Management case study: Columbia River Treaty Hydrology Kaje and data assignment due Jan 27 Climate impacts on forests   Forests Kaje due
5 Feb 1 Management case study: forests   Feb 3 Climate impacts on salmon WP: prospectus due Salmon Kaje due
6 Feb 8 Management case study: salmon   Feb 10 Climate impacts on coasts   Coasts Kaje due

 

7 Feb 15 Management case study: coasts   Feb 17 White paper workshop   Essay #1 due
8 Feb 22 Research in support of conservation planning   Feb 24 Planning for climate change: The national context   Essay #2 due
9 Mar 1 In-class role-playing exercise   Mar 3 Developing climate resilience in ecological systems    
10 Mar 8 White paper presentations   Mar 10 White paper presentations    
Finals Monday, Mar 14, 10:30 pm

 

White paper and group evaluation due

Date Topic & Readings Assignments

January 4

Introduction

 
 

Readings:

Rhythms of Change (ROC), Chapter 1: The Integrated Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on the Pacific Northwest, by A.K. Snover and E.L. Miles.

Kaje, J. 1999. Kaje System: A conceptual modeling tool for interdisciplinary research.

 

January 6

Natural climate variability

 

Readings:

Rhythms of Change (ROC), Chapter 4: The Underlying Rhythms: Patterns of Pacific Northwest Climate Variability, by N.J. Mantua, P.W. Mote.

Lippsett, L. 2000. Beyond El Niño. Scientific American 11(1):77-83.

 

Background material (optional):

Mantua, N.J., and S.R. Hare. 2002. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Journal of Oceanography 58(1):35-44.

Mass, C. 2008. The Weather of the Pacific Northwest. Seattle: University of Washington Press.

Zebiak, S. 1999. El Niño and the science of climate prediction. Consequences 5(2).

 

January 11

Using climate forecasts

Guest lecturer: Professor Emeritus Edward Sarachick, UW Department of Atmospheric Sciences

DUE: Climate variability data assignment and climate variability Kaje

 

Readings:

Sarachik, E.S. and M.A. Cane. 2010. Using ENSO information, Chapter 10 in The El Nino-Southern Oscillation Phenomenon. Cambridge University Press.

Sarachik, E. 1999. The Application of Climate Information. Consequences 5(2).

National Research Council. 1999. Summary, pages 1-6 in Making Climate Forecasts Matter. National Academy Press: Washington, D.C.

Hickson, D.J. 1987. Decision-making at the top of organizations. Annual Reviews of Sociology 13:165-192.

 

Background material (optional):

Case studies of past climate events...

Changnon, S. 1999. Impacts of the 1997-98 El Niño generated weather in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80(9): 1819-1827.

Changnon, S.A. and D.R. Vonnahme. 2003. Impact of Spring 2003 drought forecasts on midwestern water management. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 129(1): 18-25.

Changnon, S.A. and D. Changnon. 2005. Lessons from the unusual impacts of an abnormal winter in the USA. Meteorological Applications 12:187-191.

Glantz, M.H. 1982. Consequences and responsibilities in drought forecasting: The case of Yakima, 1977. Water Resources Research 18(1):3-13.

 

Psychology and decision making...

Baron, J. 2000. Thinking and Deciding, 3rd ed. Cambridge University Press. 570pp. ... "The one psychology book to read if you're only going to read one," Ed Sarachik.

Rogers, E.M. 2004. Diffusion of Innovations. New York: The Free Press.

Lewis, H.W. 1998. Why Flip a Coin? The Art and Science of Good Decisions. John Wiley & Sons.

Kahneman, D. [recent Nobel prize winner] and A. Tversky. 1982. The psychology of preferences. Scientific American January:136-142.

 

Climate conditions and predictions...

International Research Institute for Climate Prediction.

Animated movie of recent tropical ocean conditions on the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center website.

 

January 13

Anthropogenic climate change

Lecture slides part 1

Lecture slides part 2

Friday: WP: list of potential topics/issue areas due

 

Readings:

Mote, P.W. 2003. Trends in temperature and precipitation in the Pacific Northwest during the twentieth century. Northwest Science 77(4): 271-282.

Pages 1-7 of: Climate Impacts Group. 2009. Executive Summary, The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, edited by J. Littell, M.M. Elsner, L. Whitely Binder and A. Snover. University of Washington.

Summary of current PNW climate change scenarios.

National Academies. 2008. Understanding and Responding to Climate Change: Highlights of the National Academies Reports. A report by the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, Institute of Medicine, National Research Council.

Gillis, J. 2010. As glaciers melt, science seeks data on rising seas. NY Times, Nov 14, 2010.

 

Background material (optional):

The Copenhagen Diagnosis. 2009. Download or read online at http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.org/ (full citation: The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009: Updating the world on the Latest Climate Science. I. Allison, N. L. Bindoff, R.A. Bindschadler, P.M. Cox, N. de Noblet, M.H. England, J.E. Francis, N. Gruber, A.M. Haywood, D.J. Karoly, G. Kaser, C. Le Quéré, T.M. Lenton, M.E. Mann, B.I. McNeil, A.J. Pitman, S. Rahmstorf, E. Rignot, H.J. Schellnhuber, S.H. Schneider, S.C. Sherwood, R.C.J. Somerville, K.Steffen, E.J. Steig, M. Visbeck, A.J. Weaver. The University of New South Wales Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Sydney, Australia, 60pp.)

Barsugli, J. 2010: The Science of Climate Modeling. Chapter 3 in Options for improving climate modeling to assist water utility planning for climate change. Water Utility Climate Alliance.

IPCC, 2007. Summary for Policymakers. In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. For more information, you can also check out the Technical Summary (included in above link) and full report.

Karl, T.R. and K.E. Trenberth. 2003. Modern Global Climate Change. Science 302(5651): 1719-1723.

Rahmstorf, S., A. Cazanave, J. Church, J. Hansen, R. Keeling, D. Parker, and R. Somerville. 2007. Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science Express, 1 Feb 2007. 10.1126/science 1136843.

Nakicenovic, N. et al. 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Or download the Summary for Policymakers.

M.R. Raupach, G. Marland, P. Ciais, C. Le Quéré, J.G. Canadell, G. Klepper, and C.B. Field. 2007. Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104(24):10288-10293. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0700609104.

Salathé, E.P., Jr., L.R. Leung, Y. Qian, and Y. Zhang. 2009. Regional climate model projections for the State of Washington. Chapter 2 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, edited by J. Littell, M.M. Elsner, L. Whitely Binder and A. Snover. A report by the Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington.

Bonfils, C., D.W. Pierce, B.D. Santer, H. Hidalgo, G. Bala, T. Das, T. Barnett, C. Doutriaux, A.W. Wood, A, Mirin, and T. Nazawa. 2008. Detection and attribution of temperature changes in the mountainous western United States. Journal of Climate 21(23):6404–6424, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2397.1.

 

See also:

Real Climate: Climate science from climate scientists, a blog by climate scientists discussing climate science advancements and climate science in the news.

A compendium of climate change online resources.

Climate Leadership Initiative (University of Oregon). 2009. Setting the Record Straight: Responses to common challenges to climate science.

 

January 18

Planning for climate change

DUE: Climate change Kaje and data assignment due

 

Readings:

Smithers, J. and B. Smit. 1997. Human adaptation to climatic variability and change. Global Environmental Change 7 (2):129-146.

Executive Summary, Chapters 4, 7, 8, 9 and Sections 10.2-10.4 in ... Snover, A.K., L.C. Whitely Binder, J. Lopez, E. Willmott, J.E. Kay, D. Howell, and J. Simmonds. 2007. Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments. In association with and published by ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability, Oakland, CA. ... Handed out in class.

Jacobs, K. 2002. Connecting Science, Policy, and Decision-making: A handbook for researchers and science agencies. Silver Spring, Maryland, NOAA Office of Global Programs: 25.

Snover, A. K., E. L. Miles and A. F. Hamlet. 2003. Learning from and adapting to climate variability in the Pacific Northwest. In Background Papers for the "Insights and Tools for Adaptation: Learning from Climate Variability" Workshop, 18-20 November 18-20, Washington, D.C., pp. 167-179, Washington, D.C.: NOAA Office of Global Programs.

As preparation for the group project ... This American Life (Radio Show). 2008. Prologue: Ruining it for the Rest of Us. Episode #370. 19 December. ... Listen to the first 12 minutes -- go through the show description at about 7.5 minutes.

 

Background material (optional):

Willows, R.I., and R.K. Connell, (Eds.). 2003. Climate adaptation: Risk, uncertainty and decision-making. UKCIP Technical Report, Oxford: UKCIP.

 

January 20

Climate impacts on PNW water resources

Guest lecturer: Alan Hamlet, Research Assistant Professor, UW Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

 

 

Readings:

Miles, E.L., A.K. Snover, A. Hamlet, B. Callahan, and D. Fluharty. 2000. Pacific Northwest regional assessment: The impacts of climate variability and climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 36(2):399-420. ... this assessment was done with a previous generation of climate change scenarios but still is worthwhile for its demonstration of an integrated assessment of sensitivity, adaptability, vulnerability to climate impacts.

Pages 8-11 of: Climate Impacts Group. 2009. Executive Summary, The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, edited by J. Littell, M.M. Elsner, L. Whitely Binder and A. Snover. University of Washington.

Hamlet, A.F.. 2010. Assessing water resources adaptive capacity to climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest Region of North America. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 7:4437-4471.

Review: Hydrologic Climate Change Scenarios for the Pacific Northwest Columbia River Basin and Coastal Drainages.

 

Background material (optional):

Service, R.F. 2004. As the West goes dry. Science 303(5661):1124-1127.

Saunders, S. and M. Maxwell. 2005. Less snow, less water: Climate disruption in the west. Rocky Mountain Climate Organization.

Rhythms of Change (ROC), Chapter 6-6.3.3.2 (Introduction, Climate Variability, Climate Change) in: Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Water Resources, by A. F. Hamlet, P. Mote, A. K. Snover.

Elsner, M.M., L. Curo, N. Voisin, J.S. Deems, A.F. Hamlet, J.A. Vano, K.E.B. Mickelson, S.-Y. Lee and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2009. Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington state. Chapter 3a in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, edited by J. Littell, M.M. Elsner, L. Whitely Binder and A. Snover. University of Washington.

 

Historical trends in PNW snowpack and hydrology:

Mote, P.W., A.F. Hamlet and E.P. Salathé. 2008. Has spring snowpack declined in the Washington Cascades? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussion 12:193-206. SRef-ID: 1812-2116/hessd/2007-4-2073.

Casola, J.H., L. Cuo, B. Livneh, D.P. Lettenmaier, M. Stoelinga, P.W. Mote, and J.M. Wallace. 2009. Assessing the impacts of global warming on snowpack in the Washington Cascades. Journal of Climate 22:2758-2772, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2612.1.

Stoelinga, M.T., M.D. Albright, and C.F. Mass. 2009. A new look at snowpack trends in the Cascade Mountains. Journal of Climate, submitted.

Barnett, T., D.W. Pierce, H. Hidalgo, C. Bonfils, B.D. Santer, T. Das, G. Bala, A.W. Wood, T. Nazawa, A, Mirin, D. Cayan, and M. Dettinger. 2008. Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States. Science Science Express Reports 10.1126/science.1152538.

Pierce, D.W., T. Barnett, H. Hidalgo, T. Das, C. Bonfils, B.D. Santer, G. Bala, M. Dettinger, D. Cayan, A, Mirin, A.W. Wood, and T. Nazawa. 2008. Attribution of declining western U.S. snowpack to human effects. Journal of Climate 21(23): 6425–6444, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2405.1.

 

Adaptation and use of forecasts:

Section 10.4.1 (CASE STUDY: The Value of Long-Lead Streamflow Forecasts for Non-Firm Hydropower Production in the Columbia River Basin) in Rhythms of Change, Chapter 10: Using Climate Forecasts in Natural Resource Management, by D. Huppert, J. Kaje, A.F. Hamlet, B. Callahan, D. Fluharty, Z. Johnson, N. Mantua, E.L. Miles, and A.K. Snover.

Hamlet, A. F. and D. P. Lettenmaier. 1999. Columbia River streamflow forecasting based on ENSO and PDO climate signals. ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 125(6):333-341. This paper describes the streamflow forecasting technique applied in RoC Chapter 10.

 

January 25

Management case study: Columbia River Treaty

Guest lecturer: Seshu Vaddey, Hydraulic Engineer, US Army Corps of Engineers

DUE: Hydrology Kaje and data assignment due

 

Readings:

Hamlet, A.F. 2003. The Role of Transboundary Agreements in the Columbia River Basin: An Integrated Assessment in the Context of Historic Development, Climate, and Evolving Water Policy. In Climate and Water: Transboundary Challenges in the Americas, Eds. H. Diaz and B. Morehouse, Dordrecht/Boston/London: Kluwer Press.

Frederick, K.D., D.C. Major, and E.Z. Stakhiv. 1997. Water Resources Planning Principles and Evaluation Criteria for Climate Change: Summary and Conclusions. Climatic Change 37: 291-313.

Columbia River Treaty Fact Sheet - Report Kickoff (US Entity: Bonneville Power Administration and US Army Corps of Engineers, July 2010). ... Includes information on the Phase studies and the treaty as a whole.

Treaty Fact Sheet (US Army Corps of Engineers and Bonneville Power Administration).

Brochure: Columbia River Treaty 2014/2024 Review: Phase 1 Technical Studies (US Army Corps of Engineers and Bonneville Power Administration, April 2009). ... A nice overview of the role of the Phase 1 studies.

Executive Summary, Phase 1 Report, Columbia River Treaty 2014/2024 Review, Canadian and United States Entities.

 

Background material (optional):

Economic and Environmental Principles and Guidelines for Water and Related Land Resources Implementation Studies. 1983.

Proposed Revisions to Principles and Guidelines

Hyde, J.M. 2010. Columbia River Treaty Past and Future. ... A good historical overview of the Treaty, how it was developed, what it does, and issues that have come up with it. Somewhat technical.

Hamlet, A.F., S.-Y. Lee , K.E.B. Mickelson, M.M. Elsner. 2009. Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State. Chapter 4 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, edited by J. Littell, M.M. Elsner, L. Whitely Binder and A. Snover. University of Washington.

Lee, S.Y., A.F. Hamlet, C.J. Fitzgerald, S.J. Burges and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2009. Optimized flood control in the Columbia River Basin for a global warming scenario, ASCE J. Water Resources Planning and Management, in press.

National Research Council. 2004. Managing the Columbia River: Instream Flows, Water Withdrawals, and Salmon Survival. National Academies Press.

Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACOE), Bureau of Reclamation (USBR). 2001. The Columbia River System: The Inside Story, Second Edition. Updated version of report DOE/BP-1689 published for the Columbia River System Review by the USACOE and the USBR, September. This report has good background material on the treaties underlying operation of the Columbia River and the initial operating objectives of the system.

 

January 27

Climate impacts on PNW forests

Guest lecturer: Professor Thomas Hinckley, UW School of Forest Resources

DUE: White paper prospectus

Friday: forest Kaje due

 

Readings:

Running, S.W. 2008. Ecosystem disturbance, carbon, and climate. Science 321:652 – 653.

Breshears et al. 2009. Tree die-off in response to global change-type drought: mortality insights from a decade of plant water potential measurements. Front Ecol Environ 7(4): 185–189, doi:10.1890/080016

Niinemets, U. 2010. Responses of forest trees to single and multiple environmental stresses from seedlings to mature plants: Past stress history, stress interactions, tolerance and acclimation. Forest Ecology and Management 260:1623-1639.

Reich, P.B. 2010. The carbon dioxide exchange (Understanding how carbon dioxide cycles between land and atmosphere is key to developing better climate models). Science 329: 774-775.

 

Background material (optional):

Pages 1-22 in Rhythms of Change (ROC), Chapter 8: Climate Impacts on PNW forest ecosystems, by W. S. Keeton, J. F. Franklin, and P. W. Mote.

Littell, J.S., E.E. O'Neil, D. McKenzie, J.A. Hicke, J.A. Lutz, R.A. Norheim, M.M. Elsner. 2009. Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA. Chapter 7 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, edited by J. Littell, M.M. Elsner, L. Whitely Binder and A. Snover. University of Washington.

Pages 14-15 of: Climate Impacts Group. 2009. Executive Summary, The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, edited by J. Littell, M.M. Elsner, L. Whitely Binder and A. Snover. University of Washington.

Nijhuis, M. 2004. "Global warming's unlikely harbingers". High Country News 36(13): July 19.

Running, S. W. 2006. Is global warming causing more, larger wildfires? Science 313(5789):927.

Westerling, A. L., H. G. Hidalgo, D. R. Cayan, T. W. Swetnam. 2006. Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity. Science 313(5789):940-943.

Rosenzweig, C., G. Casassa, D.J. Karoly, A. Imeson, C. Liu, A. Menzel, S. Rawlins, T.L. Root, B. Seguin, P. Tryjanowski, 2007: Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 79-131.

Shugart, H., R. Sedjo and B. Sohngen. 2003. Forests and Global Climate Change: Potential impacts on U.S. forest resources. A report prepared for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change. February.

 

Recent trends:

Peterson, D.L. 1994. Recent changes in the growth and establishment of subalpine conifers in western North America, pp. 234-243. In M. Beniston (ed.), Mountain Environments in Changing Climates.

van Mantgem, P.J. et al. 2009. Widespread increase of tree mortality rates in the western United States. Science 323:521-524. DOI: 10.1126/science.1165000.

Boisvenue, C. and S. W. Running. 2006. Impacts of climate change on natural forest producitivity - evidence since the middle of the 20th century. Global Change Biology 12:862-882.

Whitlock, C. 1992. Vegetational and climatic history of the Pacific Northwest during the last 20,000 years: Implications for understanding present-day biodiversity. The Northwest Environmental Journal 8:5-28. ... This paper examines ecological, climatological and geological processes of the past to derive an understanding of present patterns of biodiversity and the implications of future climate change for the PNW.

 

February 1

Management Case Study: Adapting to Climate Change in US National Forests

Guest lecturer: Professor David Peterson, UW School of Forest Resources and USFS Fire Sciences Lab

 

Readings:

Pages 363-385 of Appendix A: Case Studies. In Climate Change Science Program (CCSP). 2008. Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. [Julius, S.H., J.M. West (eds.), J.S. Baron, L.A. Joyce, P. Kareiva, B.D. Keller, M.A. Palmer, C.H. Peterson, and J.M. Scott (Authors)]. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA.

Joyce, L.A., G.M. Blate, S.G. McNulty, C.I. Millar, S. Moser, R.P. Neilson and D.L. Peterson. 2009. Managing for multiple resources under climate change: National Forests. Environmental Management 44:1022–1032. DOI 10.1007/s00267-009-9324-6.

 

February 3

Climate impacts on PNW salmon

 

Friday: salmon Kaje due

 

Readings:

Rhythms of Change (ROC), Chapter 7: PNW salmon and climate, by N. J. Mantua, R. C. Francis, and P. W. Mote.

Schindler, D.E., X. Augerot, E. Fleishman, N. Mantua, B. Riddell, M. Ruckelshaus, J. Seeb, and M. Webster. 2008. Climate change, ecosystem impacts, and management for Pacific salmon. Fisheries 33(10):502-506.

Pages 13-14 of: Climate Impacts Group. 2009. Executive Summary, The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, edited by J. Littell, M.M. Elsner, L. Whitely Binder and A. Snover. University of Washington.

Mantua, N. J. and P. W. Mote. 2002. Uncertainty in scenarios of human-caused climate change. American Fisheries Society Symposium 32: 263-272.

 

Background material (optional):

Mantua, N., I. Tohver, and A. Hamlet. 2009. Impacts of climate change on key aspects of freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State. Chapter 6 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, edited by J. Littell, M.M. Elsner, L. Whitely Binder and A. Snover. University of Washington.

Farrell, A.P., S.G. Hinch, S.J. Cooke, D.A. Patterson, G.T. Crossin, M. Lapointe and M.T. Mathes. 2008. Pacific salmon in hot water: Applying aerobic scope models and biotelemetry to predict the success of spawning migrations. Physiological and Biochemical Zoology 81(6):697-709.

Crozier, L., R.W. Zabel and A.H. Hamlet. 2008. Predicting differential effects of climate change at the population level with life-cycle models of spring Chinook salmon. Global Change Biology 14(2):236-249.

Lindley et al. 2009. What caused the Sacramento River fall Chinook stock collapse? Pre-publication report to the Pacific Fishery Management Council.

 

February 8

Management Case Study: Salmon recovery

Guest lecturer: TBA

 

Readings:

Battin, J., M.W. Wiley, M. H. Ruckelshaus, R. N. Palmer, K.K. Bartz, H. Imaki, E. Korb. 2007. Projected impacts of climate change on salmon habitat restoration. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104:6720-6725.

Mantua, N.J. and R.C. Francis. 2004. Natural climate insurance for Pacific Northwest salmon and salmon fisheries: Finding our way through the entangled bank. pp. 127-140, in E.E. Knudsen and D. MacDonald (eds), Fish in our Future? Perspectives on Fisheries Sustainability. A special publication of the American Fisheries Society.

 

Background material (optional):

Zabel, R.W., M.D. Scheuerell, M.M. McClure, and J.G. Williams. 2006. The interplay between climate variability and density dependence in the population viability of Chinook salmon. Conservation Biology 20(1): 190-200. doi: 10.1111/ j.1523-1739.2005.00300.x

Ruckelshaus, M. H., P. Levin, J. B. Johnson, and P. M. Kareiva. 2002. The Pacific salmon wars: What science brings to the challenge of recovering species. Annual Review of Ecological Systems 33: 665-706.

Levin, S. A. 1993. Forum: Science and sustainability. Ecological Applications 3(4).

Ludwig, D., R. Hilborn, and C. Walters. 1993. Uncertainty, resource exploitation, and conservation: Lessons from history. Ecological Applications 3(4): 547-549.

Holling, C. S. 1993. Investing in research for sustainability. Ecological Applications 3(4): 552-555.

 

February 10

Climate impacts on PNW coasts

Guest lecturer: Hugh Shipman, Coastal Geologist, WA Department of Ecology

Friday: coasts Kaje due

 

Readings:

Rhythms of Change (ROC), Chapter 9: Climate Impacts on PNW coasts, by D. J. Canning, P. W. Mote, Z. Johnson, J. C. Field, J. Newton, and M. J. Hershman. ... and then skim the recent version to see how the climate change projections have been updated: Huppert, D.D., A. Moore, K. Dyson. 2009. Impacts of climate change on the coasts of Washington state. Chapter 8 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, edited by J. Littell, M.M. Elsner, L. Whitely Binder and A. Snover. University of Washington.

Pages 16-17 of: Climate Impacts Group. 2009. Executive Summary, The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, edited by J. Littell, M.M. Elsner, L. Whitely Binder and A. Snover. University of Washington.

Mote, P.W., A. (Sascha) Petersen, S. Reeder, H. Shipman, and L.C. Whitely Binder. 2008. Sea Level Rise in the Coastal Waters of Washington State. Report prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington and the Washington Department of Ecology, Lacey, Washington.

Shipman. 2009. The Response of the Salish Sea to Rising Sea Levels: A Geomorphic Perspective. This provides the basis for much of what I will talk about.

Fletcher. 2009. Sea Level by the end of the 21st Century: A Review. Also written by a geologist, but pretty accessible to a broader audience.

 

Background material (optional):

Glick, P., J. Clough and B. Nunley. 2007. Sea-level Rise and Coastal Habitats in the Pacific Northwest: An analysis for Puget Sound, southwestern Washington, and Northwestern Oregon. The National Wildlife Federation.

Cooper. 2003. The use of "managed retreat" in coastal engineering.

French. 2006. Managed realignment – the developing story of a comparatively new approach to soft engineering.

Titus et al. 2009. State and local governments plan for development of most land vulnerable to rising sea level along the U.S. Atlantic Coast.

Titus. 1998. Rising seas, coastal erosion, and the takings clause: How to save wetlands and beaches without hurting property owners.

 

February 15

Management Case Study: Planning for climate change on Washington's coasts

Guest lecturer: Joe Burcar, Shoreline Planner, WA Department of Ecology

 

Readings:

Shoreline master programs FAQ (2010). WA Dept of Ecology. Appendix A - Sea-Level Guidance. WA Dept of Ecology.

Maryland Commission on climate change: see Chapter 5 within the Commission's "Climate Action Plan":

  • Reduction of impact to existing and future growth and development (page 9-13),
  • Natural Resource Protection (pages 20 – 25),
  • Future Steps and Direction (pages 30-32).

 

Background reading (optional)

Beatley, T, 2009. Planning for Coastal Resilience – Best Practices for Calamitous Times. Island Press, Washington D.C.

Adapting to Coastal Climate Change: Summary for Policy Makers.

 

February 17

White Paper Workshop

 

 

Readings:

None

 

February 22

Research in support of conservation planning efforts

Guest lecturer: Meade Krosby, Post Doc, UW Department of Biology

 

Readings:

Parmesan, C. 2006. Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution and Systematics 37:637-669. doi: 10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100.

Heller, N.E. and E.S. Zavaleta. 2009. Biodiversity management in the fact of climate change: A review of 22 years of recommendations. Biological Conservation 124:14-32.

 

February 24

Planning for climate change: The national context

Guest lecturer: Professor Emeritus Edward Miles, School of Marine Affairs and Evans School of Public Affairs

 

 

Readings:

Miles, E. L., A. K. Snover, L. C. Whitely Binder, E. Sarachik, P. W. Mote, and N. J. Mantua. 2006. An approach to designing a National Climate Service. Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences 103(52):19616–19623.

Natural Research Council. 2010. Summary of America's Climate Choices: Advancing the Science of Climate Change. National Academies of Science.

Natural Research Council. 2010. Summary of America's Climate Choices: Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change. National Academies of Science.

Natural Research Council. 2010. Summary of America's Climate Choices: Informing an Effective Response to Climate Change. National Academies of Science.

 

March 1

In-class role-playing exercise

 
 

Readings:

TBA

 

March 3

Developing climate resilience in ecological systems

Guest lecturer: Lara Hansen, Chief Scientist and Executive Director, EcoAdapt

 
 

Readings:

Hansen, L., J. Hoffman, C. Drews, and E. Mielbrecht. 2009. Designing climate-smart conservation: Guidance and case studies. Conservation Biology 24(1): 63-69.

Check out CAKE (www.cakex.org), explore it, think about how adaptation is being applied in the real world.

 

March 8

White Paper Presentations

 

     

March 10

White paper presentations

Course Wrap-Up

 

     

March 14 (10:30 pm)

White papers and peer evaluations due