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Seminar Abstract

Mitsuhiro Kawase - Oct 23, 2001

Puget Sound historical long-term climate variability

This talk will consist of two parts. First, I will describe modeling activities that are going on in my group and in particular the now-funded National Ocean Partnership Program for modeling and database development for Puget Sound to take place in the next five years, as well as the work of my student Amanda Babson developing a simple dynamical model of the sound for seasonal and lower-frequency variability. Second, I will discuss long-term observational data in Puget Sound and possibilities of extracting interannual to decadal signal from them. Challenges we face are (1) gappy and inconsistent sampling, (2) sampling beling no more frequent than monthly and possibility of aliasing higher-frequency variability. Nevertheless, by constructing anomaly time series for different locations and looking for a coherent signal between stations I could find what appears to be genuine interannual signal in the data set. Particularly noteworthy is what appears to be a 4-5 year oscillatory signal in salinity in the period 1951 - 75.

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