Monday, October 13, 2003
12:30 to 1:30
Simulating Global Climate Change and Variability in Economic Models
This presentation describes some of the methods used to simulate and/or quantify the impacts of global climate change and variability in economic models at the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service (ERS). It is divided into three sections:
- The first section is an overview of ERS's Future Agricultural Resources Model (FARM), a global model that explicitly links climate with agricultural production.
- The second section describes how uncertainty associated with variable projections of climate from different general circulation models can be quantified using estimated impacts on world crop production and economic welfare as examples.
- The third section describes research on capturing interannual variability of weather and assessing its impacts on food security in low-income countries.