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Seminar Abstract

Richard Slaughter - April 15, 2003

 

Addressing criticisms of the 2001 IPCC SRES scenarios

Richard Slaughter will address recent criticisms of the methodology underlying the 2001 SRES made by David Henderson of the Westminster Business School, London, and Ian Castles, former Australian Statistician and former president of the International Association of Official Statistics.

The fundamental criticism levied by the aforementioned, in letters to Dr. Rajendra Pachauri and presented in January to the IPCC, is that the SRES incorporated official exchange rates instead of PPP rates in the base case when calculating economic growth to 2100 in the third world. The intermediate result is that existing economic activity is significantly understated (by about 10 to 1), and thus growth in the third world over the next century is rather considerably overstated (from 1990, 140X in the A scenarios and 70X in the B scenarios). This has such economic stalwarts as North Korea with per capita incomes rather higher than current U.S. standards, and projects growth throughout the third world at rates substantially higher than that which has ever existed anywhere.

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