Thursday, April 22, 2004
1:30 to 3:00
An integrated assessment for global change using the CINTRAFOR Global Trade Model
The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon
dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global
sector. The responses of the global forest sector may have implications for
international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon
dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest
management in integrated assessments of the
global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes
and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector
to different scenarios of emissions controls.
We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent the range of emission control policies and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The potential growing stock responses are converted to economic responses through timber supply adjustments in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model.
In general the economic responses to climate change in the hardwood sectors are smaller than the responses observed for the softwood sector. Markets and trade of a region play important roles in whether the region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices as the low cost regions expand market shares and force higher cost regions to decrease their harvests. The regional trade patterns produce different economic responses across the globe. The results of this study indicate that both
assumptions about the effects of emissions controls on climate and assumptions about the price responsiveness of harvest are important factors to consider in assessing the effects of climate change on the global forest sector.
John Perez-Garcia is Associate Professor in Forest Economics and manages the CINTRAFOR Global Trade Model. He has a decade of experience with the trade model. He is a principal developer of the current version and uses the model in a variety of trade policy and assessment studies. John has authored numerous reports and other publications on forest products trade, trade policies, markets and market assessments including reports specifically dealing with the Asia Pacific region. He was a Natural Resource Specialist in forest products utilization prior to his receiving his doctorate degree. He has a forestry undergraduate degree from Rutger's University; a M.S. in Agricultural Economics from the University of Puerto Rico; and a doctorate degree in Forest Economics from Yale's School of Forestry and Environmental Studies.