Thursday, May 22, 2008
Climate change impact assessment on Korean water resources and their hydrologic uncertainties
We evaluate the spatial and temporal variations of water resources under climate change simulation on Korean watershed areas, because it has been known that the climate change and their hydrologic impacts do not occur uniformly throughout the globe. The high-resolution projection data (27x27 km) by the Korean Meteorological Research Institute using the climate models ECHO-G and NCAR/MM5 and PRMS for the hydrologic runoff model are used in this study. Especially, we will discuss about the hydrologic model parameter estimation scheme for ungauged basin. In addition, we analyze the past historical observation data for 34 years (1968–-2001). A non-parametric Mann-Kendall's test and regression analysis are used to detect trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation and runoff. The results indicated that the amount of runoff was expected to decrease in spring and summer and to increase in fall and winter. Runoff amounts were also expected to increase in northern regions and decrease in southern regions. We will discuss about the uncertainties for the climate change impact assessment on water resources and future research directions.
Deghyo Bae is a visiting professor at the UW's Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Professor of Civil and ENvironmental Engineering at Sejong University, Seoul, Korea, and Principal Investigator of the climate change impact assessment on Korean water resources under the 21st Frontier Project "Sustainable Water Resources Research Development".