Research

Coastal Environments

Key Findings

In its research on the relationship between climate and Pacific Northwest (PNW) coastal environments, the Climate Impacts Group (CIG) has:

Projected Impacts of Climate Change on the PNW Coastal Zone

• Climate change and projected sea level rise could cause or exacerbate a number of problems, including coastal erosion, flooding, and inundation. The shoreline erosion due to sea level changes would vary from place to place depending on a number of factors, including local geology and topography. Due to tectonic subsidence in south Puget Sound, Olympia (Washington) is likely to be among the most vulnerable urban areas to sea level rise. (Canning et al., in review)

Linked Coastal River Flooding to Predictable Climate Variations

• CIG research has found that river flooding is more common on unmanaged coastal rivers during La Niña (as compared to El Niño) years, especially during the cool phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. (Hamlet and Lettenmaier 1999)

Evaluated Adaptability of Coastal Management to Climate Fluctuations

• The PNW coastal management system is generally not very adaptable to either climate variability or climate change. State and local officials are, to varying degrees, slow to incorporate a response to climate change into their management of coastal resources, hazards, or land use (Johnson 1998; Canning et al., in review)

Completed a Preliminary Study of the Integrated Effects of Climate Variability and Change on South Puget Sound

• Trial efforts to model the influence of climate variability on water quality in South Puget Sound estuaries and their watersheds found that climate-induced changes in streamflow, sunlight intensity, dissolved inorganic nitrogen loading, and ocean water temperatures appear to be the most essential drivers of changes in water quality that could potentially lead to water quality degradation in South Puget Sound’s Budd Inlet. (Engoltz 2002)