Research

Integrated Assessment

Key Findings

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In its research on the integrated assessment of climate impacts on the Pacific Northwest (PNW), the Climate Impacts Group (CIG) has:

Compared the Impacts of Climate Variability to Climate Change

Developed and Documented New Methods of Integrated Assessment

Earned National Recognition for Integrated Assessment Research

Convened International Workshops on Regional Integrated Assessment

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The influence of the cool, neutral, and warm phases (left to right) of ENSO and PDO  on climate, water resources, and salmon in the PNW

Figure 1  The influence of the cool, neutral, and warm phases (left to right) of ENSO (left column) and PDO (right column) on climate, water resources, and salmon in the PNW. Range = whiskers, mean = horizontal line, top/bottom of box = 75th/25th percentiles. (from Mote et al. 2003)

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Comparing impacts of the PDO and climate change on PNW natural resources

Figure 2  Comparing impacts of the PDO and climate change on PNW natural resources. This figure compares observed 20th century (1925-1995) impacts of the PDO and projected impacts of climate change in the 2040s on PNW temperature (averaged over the PNW for October-March); total annual precipitation (averaged over the PNW); snow depth (January 15 to April 15 average at Snoqualmie Pass, Washington); streamflow (for the Columbia River at the Dalles, corrected for the effects of dams); annual catch of Washington coho salmon; and areas burned by forest fires in Washington and Oregon. The results are expressed as a percentage of the average value with the exception of temperature, shown as degrees Celsius. Future changes in salmon catch and forest fires are less certain than other resource sectors.

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The consequences of climate change for the PNW.

Figure 3  The consequences of climate change for the PNW. The impacts are prioritized by magnitude of cumulative effects across the region and associated degree of confidence.

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The consequences of climate change for the PNW

Figure 4  The consequences of climate change for the PNW. The impacts are prioritized by magnitude of cumulative effects across the region and associated degree of confidence.

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The consequences of climate change for the PNW.

Figure 5 The consequences of climate change for the PNW. The impacts are prioritized by magnitude of cumulative effects across the region and associated degree of confidence.