Regional Climate: Current Research
Future Climate of the California Current System
- Nathan Mantua, UW Climate Impacts Group
- Eric Salathé, UW Climate Impacts Group
- Todd Mitchell, UW Climate Impacts Group
The IPCC results for projected changes in the Oregon upwelling region are equivocal. The projected changes are small, but since the sign of these changes vary among the models, the model output requires more scrutiny. What is well known is that the region is expected to show a temperature increase that will be concentrated in the upper ocean. We are reevaluating IPCC forecasts for SSTs and surface winds, the latter by evaluating projections for surface pressure fields and downscaling those to regional-scale upwelling wind fields. Scenarios for future oceanographic conditions in the CCS are being generated by combining upwelling and upper ocean temperature change scenarios, which can provide at least semi-quantitative climate change projections to match input variables needed to generate ecosystem impacts scenarios for species in this region. This project will be linked with our ongoing study of the past, present and future of upwelling winds (CLIM-2A) in 2009-2010.
NOAA-Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA-AFSC
NOAA Fisheries and Their Environment (FATE)
For more publications on climate impacts on PNW climate, please see CIG Publications.