Results from IPCC AR4 Simulations
The Climate Impacts Group has analyzed the climate response for the Pacific Northwest simulated by several climate models. These simulations were prepared by climate modeling centers worldwide for the Fourth IPCC Assessement. For consistency with prior work, we include the current versions of models used previously: Hadcm3, Echam5, CCSM3, and PCM1 (CCSM3 is the successor to both the NCAR CSM and DOE PCM). To these we added five additional models to better represent the range of models participating in AR4. These are: CNRM_CM3, CSIRO_MK3 Miroc_3.2, IPSL_CM4, CGCM_3.1, and GISS_ER. Summary statistics for these models are provided in the link at the right.
From these, we have selected
- ECHAM5 SRES A2 simulation as the middle of the road senario
- IPSL_CM4 A2 as the highest warming scenario
- GISS_ER B1 as the lowest warming scenario
These models have been downscaled to daily 1/8-degree data for the Pacific Northwest. Daily and monthly-mean data may be downloaded at the links to the right. Data coverage is indicated by the map below, which shows the downscaled distribution of precipitation for the 2040s.