Summary Statistics

In order to select appropriate scenarios for climate impacts studies based on the IPCC Fourth Assessment (AR4) climate simulations , we have analyzed the climate response for the Pacific Northwest from various climate model simulations. For consistency with prior work, we included the current versions of models used previously: Hadcm3, Echam5, CCSM3, and PCM1 (CCSM3 is the successor to both the NCAR CSM and DOE PCM). To these we added 5 additional models to better represent the range of models participating in AR4. These are: CNRM_CM3, CSIRO_MK3, MIROC_3.2, IPSL_CM4, CGCM_3.1, and GISS_ER. For each model, we examined the 20th Century simulation and simulations for two scenarios for greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, SRES A2 and B1.

A detailed discussion of the scenarios is available here.

Table of Global Models (pdf)

BACK to IPCC AR4 Scenario page.

Contact:
Philip Mote 206-616-5346
Eric Salathé 206-616-5351

References:

• E. P. Salathé Jr, P W Mote, M W Wiley, 2007: Considerations for selecting downscaling methods for integrated assessments of climate change impacts. Int. J. of Climatology, Accepted. [Draft PDF]
• Mote, P.M., E.P. Salathé, C. Peacock. Scenarios of Future Climate for the Pacific Northwest. A report prepared for King County Department of Natural Resources by the Climate Impacts Group (Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle). [PDF]

MS Excel Files:

• Statistics for the 20th Century simulations
• Annual cycles of temp and precip for 20th C simulations
• Statistics for precip changes in future scenarios
• Statistics for temperature changes in future scenarios
• Break down of trends by calendar month
• A measure of each model's sensitivity to CO2 forcing