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View: Abstract

System optimization using streamflow forecasts during droughts

Ryu, J.H., and R.N. Palmer. (In press). System optimization using streamflow forecasts during droughts. Submitted to Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management.


Hydrologic forecasts can play an important role in water resource system optimization during droughts. Forecasts allow stakeholder groups to clearly understand estimates of system reliability associated with hydrologic events and support decision-making based upon current and forecasted conditions, rather than past operations. The quality of a forecast is very important aspect because system operators are primarily concerned with whether or not a forecast leads to improved decision-making. Accurate forecasts can increase the benefits of water systems. In this paper, the value of long-term forecasts is evaluated with an optimization model with the objective of minimizing the economic losses associated with system releases. Three types of forecast information are explored: a no-forecast alternative, perfect forecasts, and imperfect forecasts. Additionally, the value of forecasts is evaluated for two different periods to represent a normal flow period and a drought period, respectively.