Return to CIG

Search

View All Publications

Go To Publication by Year:

View Publications by Topic:

Adaptation

Agriculture

Air Quality

Aquatic Ecosystems and Fisheries

Background Papers

Climate: Atmospheric Modeling

Climate: Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Modeling

Climate: Diagnostics

Climate: Global Climate

Climate: Ocean Modeling

Climate: PNW Climate

Climate: Regional Climate Modeling

Coastal Ecosystems

Coastal Environments

Conservation Biology

Data Analysis and Sharing

Energy

Fact Sheets

Forecasts and Applications

Forest Ecosystems

Human Health

Hydrology and Water Resources

Infrastructure

Integrated Assessment

Ocean Acidification

Oceanography

Program Documents

Science Advisory Reports

Societal Dimensions

Special Reports

Theses and Dissertations

View Publications by Author:

Search the Publication Abstracts:


Other CSES Links:

About CSES

CSES Personnel

Data / Links

Publications

Welcome to the publications directory for the Climate Impacts Group and the Climate Dynamics Group. Please contact the web administrator for assistance with any of these publications.


View: Abstract

Attribution of projected changes in U.S. ozone and PM2.5 concentrations to specific global changes

Avise, J., J. Chen, B. Lamb, C. Wiedinmyer, A. Guenther, E.P. Salathé, and C.F. Mass. 2009. Attribution of projected changes in U.S. ozone and PM2.5 concentrations to specific global changes. Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics 9: 1111-1124.

Abstract

The impact that changes in future climate, anthropogenic U.S. emissions, background tropospheric composition, and land-use have on regional U.S. ozone and PM2.5 concentrations is examined through a matrix of downscaled regional air quality simulations using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model.

Projected regional scale changes in meteorology due to climate change under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 scenario are derived through the downscaling of Parallel Climate Model (PCM) output with the MM5 meteorological model. Future chemical boundary conditions are obtained through downscaling of MOZART-2 (Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 2.4) global chemical model simulations based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario. Projected changes in U.S. anthropogenic emissions are estimated using the EPA Economic Growth Analysis System (EGAS), and changes in land-use are projected using data from the Community Land Model (CLM) and the Spatially Explicit Regional Growth Model (SERGOM).

For July conditions, changes in chemical boundary conditions are found to have the largest impact (+5 ppbv) on average daily maximum 8-hr (DM8H) ozone. Changes in US anthropogenic emissions are projected to increase average DM8H ozone by +3 ppbv. Land-use changes are projected to have a significant influence on regional air quality due to the impact these changes have on biogenic hydrocarbon emissions. When climate changes and land-use changes are considered simultaneously, the average DM8H ozone decreases due to a reduction in biogenic VOC emissions (-2.6 ppbv). Changes in average 24-hr (A24-hr) PM2.5 concentrations are dominated by projected changes in anthropogenic emissions (+3 µg m-3), while changes in chemical boundary conditions have a negligible effect. On average, climate change reduces A24-hr PM2.5 concentrations by -0.9 µg m-3, but this reduction is more than tripled in the southeastern U.S. due to increased precipitation and wet deposition.