Return to CIG


View All Publications

Go To Publication by Year:

View Publications by Topic:



Air Quality

Aquatic Ecosystems and Fisheries

Background Papers

Climate: Atmospheric Modeling

Climate: Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Modeling

Climate: Diagnostics

Climate: Global Climate

Climate: Ocean Modeling

Climate: PNW Climate

Climate: Regional Climate Modeling

Coastal Ecosystems

Coastal Environments

Conservation Biology

Data Analysis and Sharing


Fact Sheets

Forecasts and Applications

Forest Ecosystems

Human Health

Hydrology and Water Resources


Integrated Assessment

Ocean Acidification


Program Documents

Science Advisory Reports

Societal Dimensions

Special Reports

Theses and Dissertations

View Publications by Author:

Search the Publication Abstracts:

Other CSES Links:

About CSES

CSES Personnel

Data / Links


Welcome to the publications directory for the Climate Impacts Group and the Climate Dynamics Group. Please contact the web administrator for assistance with any of these publications.

View: Abstract

Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State

Hamlet, A.F., S-Y. Lee, K.E.B. Mickelson, and M.M. Elsner. 2009. Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State. Chapter 4 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.


Climate strongly affects energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Washington State (WA). We evaluate potential changes in the seasonality and annual amount of PNW hydropower production and changes in energy demand in a warming climate by linking simulated streamflow scenarios produced by a hydrology model to a simulation model of the Columbia River hydro system. Energy demand, and potential changes therein, are assessed estimates of heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) for both the 20th Century climate and projections of climate in three future periods (2010-2039, 2030-2059, and 2070-2099) and two emissions scenarios (IPCC A1B and B1). The gridded HDD and CDD values are then combined with population projections to create energy demand indices that respond both to climate, future population, and changes in air conditioning market penetration.

We find that substantial changes in the amount and seasonality of energy supply and demand in the PNW are likely to occur over the next century in response to warming, precipitation changes, and population growth. For the 2020s, regional hydropower production increases by 0.5-4% in winter, decreases by 9-11% in summer, with annual reductions of 1-4%. Slightly larger increases in winter, and summer decreases, are proected for the 2040s and 2080s. In the absence of warming, population growth is projected to result in considerable increases in heating energy demand, however, the combined effects of warming and population growth are projected to result in net increases that are approximately one-half those associated with population growth alone. On the other hand, population growth combined with warming greatly increases the projected demand for cooling energy, notwithstanding that by the 2080s, total cooling energy requirements will still be substantially lower than heating energy demand.