Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of climate change on dairy production in the Pacific Northwest in the 21st century using temperature and humidity data for major dairy-producing counties from the historic record and from downscaled climate models. Using a production benchmark of 27kg/day, we estimate that dairy losses due to heat stress will rise from 0-2 percent of the benchmark for the 30- year period centered around 1985 to 0-6 percent of the benchmark for the 30-year period centered around 2075.