Return to CIG

Search

View All Publications

Go To Publication by Year:

View Publications by Topic:

Adaptation

Agriculture

Air Quality

Aquatic Ecosystems and Fisheries

Background Papers

Climate: Atmospheric Modeling

Climate: Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Modeling

Climate: Diagnostics

Climate: Global Climate

Climate: Ocean Modeling

Climate: PNW Climate

Climate: Regional Climate Modeling

Coastal Ecosystems

Coastal Environments

Conservation Biology

Data Analysis and Sharing

Energy

Fact Sheets

Forecasts and Applications

Forest Ecosystems

Human Health

Hydrology and Water Resources

Infrastructure

Integrated Assessment

Ocean Acidification

Oceanography

Program Documents

Science Advisory Reports

Societal Dimensions

Special Reports

Theses and Dissertations

View Publications by Author:

Search the Publication Abstracts:


Other CSES Links:

About CSES

CSES Personnel

Data / Links

Publications

Welcome to the publications directory for the Climate Impacts Group and the Climate Dynamics Group. Please contact the web administrator for assistance with any of these publications.


View: Abstract

A preliminary synthesis of modeled climate change impacts on U.S. regional ozone concentrations

Weaver, C.P., X.-Z. Liang, J. Zhu, P.J. Adams, P. Amar, J. Avise, M. Caughey, J. Chen, R.C. Cohen, E. Cooter, J.P. Dawson, R. Gilliam, A. Gilliland, A.H. Goldstein, A. Grambsch, D. Grano, A. Guenther, W.I. Gustafson, R.A. Harley, S. He, B. Hemming, C. Hogrefe, H.-C. Huang, S.W. Hunt, D.J. Jacob, P.L. Kinney, K. Kunkel, J-F. Lamarque, B. Lamb, N.K. Larkin, L.R. Leung, K.-J. Liao, J.-T. Lin, B.H. Lynn, K. Manomaiphiboon, C. Mass, D. McKenzie, L.J. Mickley, S.M. O'Neill, C. Nolte, S.N. Pandis, P.N. Racherla, C. Rosenzweig, A.G. Russell, E.P. Salathé, A.L. Steiner, E. Tagaris, Z. Tao, S. Tonse, C. Wiedinmyer, A. Williams, D.A. Winner, J.-H. Woo, S. Wu, and D.J. Wuebbles. 2009. A preliminary synthesis of modeled climate change impacts on U.S. regional ozone concentrations. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 90:1843-1863.

Abstract

This paper provides a synthesis of results that have emerged from recent modeling studies of the potential impacts of global climate change (c. 2050) on U.S. regional ozone concentrations. This research has been carried out under the auspices of an ongoing U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) assessment effort to increase scientific understanding of the multiple complex interactions between climate, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, and air quality, the ultimate goal of which is to enhance the ability of air quality managers to consider global change in their decisions through improved characterization of the potential impacts of global change on air quality, including O3, particulate matter (PM), and mercury (Hg).

The results discussed here are interim, representing the first phase of the EPA assessment whose aim was to consider the effects of climate change alone, without accompanying changes in anthropogenic emissions of precursor pollutants. Across all of the modeling experiments carried out by the different groups, simulated global climate change causes increases in summertime O3 concentrations over some substantial regions of the country. These regional patterns of change, however, are not, in general, the same across the different simulations. These differences result from variations in the simulated patterns of mean changes in key meteorological drivers, such as temperature and surface insolation. Some regions, such as the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, show greater agreement across groups, whereas others, such as the West Coast and the Southeast, show wider disagreements. How isoprene nitrate chemistry is represented in the different modeling systems is an additional critical factor in the simulated O3 response to climate change.