Managing uncertainty in climate-driven ecological models to inform adaptation to climate change
Littell, J.S., D. McKenzie, B.K. Kerns, S.C. Cushman, and C.G. Shaw. 2011. Managing uncertainty in climate-driven ecological models to inform adaptation to climate change. Ecosphere 2(9): article 102, doi:10.1890/ES11-00114.1.
The impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems are likely to require changes in forest
planning and natural resource management. Changes in tree growth, disturbance extent and intensity, and eventually species distributions are expected. In natural resource management and planning, ecosystem models are typically used to provide a ‘‘best estimate’’ about how forests might work in the future and thus guide decision-making. Ecosystem models can be used to develop forest management strategies that anticipate these changes, but limited experience with models and model output is a challenge for managers in thinking about how to address potential effects of climate change. What do decision makers need to know about climate models, ecological models used for impacts assessments, and the uncertainty in model projections in order to use model output in strategies for adaptation to climate change?
UW Climate Impacts Group