Return to CIG

Search

View All Publications

Go To Publication by Year:

View Publications by Topic:

Adaptation

Agriculture

Air Quality

Aquatic Ecosystems and Fisheries

Background Papers

Climate: Atmospheric Modeling

Climate: Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Modeling

Climate: Diagnostics

Climate: Global Climate

Climate: Ocean Modeling

Climate: PNW Climate

Climate: Regional Climate Modeling

Coastal Ecosystems

Coastal Environments

Conservation Biology

Data Analysis and Sharing

Energy

Fact Sheets

Forecasts and Applications

Forest Ecosystems

Human Health

Hydrology and Water Resources

Infrastructure

Integrated Assessment

Ocean Acidification

Oceanography

Program Documents

Science Advisory Reports

Societal Dimensions

Special Reports

Theses and Dissertations

View Publications by Author:

Search the Publication Abstracts:


Other CSES Links:

About CSES

CSES Personnel

Data / Links

Publications

Welcome to the publications directory for the Climate Impacts Group and the Climate Dynamics Group. Please contact the web administrator for assistance with any of these publications.


View: Abstract

Effects of Projected Twenty-First Century Sea Level Rise, Storm Surge, and River Flooding on Water Levels in Puget Sound Floodplains and Estuaries

Hamman, J.J. 2012. Effects of Projected Twenty-First Century Sea Level Rise, Storm Surge, and River Flooding on Water Levels in Puget Sound Floodplains and Estuaries. Master's Thesis, University of Washington.

Abstract

Near coastal environments have been identified as some of the most likely to be impacted by climate change. Observed changes in Puget Sound sea level and flood magnitudes are in line with those projected by previous climate change impacts studies. Current understanding of the combined effects of these changes is relatively low and has prompted us to explore the ways in which their co-occurrence will influence near coastal ecosystems and infrastructure. Using numerical simulation models the project examines the projected effects of climate change on water levels and inundation in the lower reaches of the Skagit River in western WA due to the combined effects of changes in storm surge, sea level rise, and riverine flooding.

Global climate model simulations from the ECHAM-5 climate model were used as the climate forcings and were 1) statistically downscaled using the hybrid delta method, and 2) dynamically downscaled using the WRF regional climate model. Naturalized flows produced using the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrology model were used to drive reservoir models that simulate flood control operations and regulated flow during extreme events. Storm surge was calculated using a regression approach that included atmospheric pressure patterns simulated by the WRF model and ENSO. A 2D hydrodynamic model was used to estimate water surface elevations in the Skagit River estuary and floodplain using resampled hourly hydrographs keyed to regulated daily flood flows produced by the daily time step reservoir simulation model and tide predictions adjusted for SLR and storm surge.

Combining peak annual storm surge with expected sea level rise, the historic (1970-1999) 100-yr peak tidal anomaly is found to be exceeded every year by the 2020s. By the 2050s, the extrapolated 100-yr riverine flood events are found to increase by 30% and 25% in the Skagit and Nisqually Rivers, respectively. In the Skagit River, the combined effect of sea level rise and larger floods yields increased areal flood inundation up to 80% relative to the present "100-year" flood.