Search

Fontaine, M., A.C. Steinemann, and M.J. Hayes. (In press). State drought programs: Lessons and recommendations from the western U.S.. Submitted to ASCE Natural Hazards Review.

The tools needed to provide information for adaptation to future climate conditions

Sarachik, E.S. (In press). The tools needed to provide information for adaptation to future climate conditions. To appear in proceedings for the 2nd International Conference: Climate, Sustainability and Development in Semi-arid Regions, August 16 - 20, 2010, Fortaleza - Ceará, Brazil.

ENSO anomalies over the western United States: Present and future patterns in regional climate simulations

Zhang, Y., V. Dulière, E.P. Salathé, Y. Qian, and L.R. Leung. (In press). ENSO anomalies over the western United States: Present and future patterns in regional climate simulations. To appear in Journal of Climate.

In review

Diets indicate potential drivers of steelhead productivity in the North Pacific Ocean

Atcheson, M., K. Myers, N. Davis, and N.J. Mantua. (In review). Diets indicate potential drivers of steelhead productivity in the North Pacific Ocean. Submitted to Fisheries Oceanography.

Climate change impacts on dairy production in the Pacific Northwest

Bauman, Y., and E.P. Salathé. (In review). Climate change impacts on dairy production in the Pacific Northwest. Submitted to Climatic Change Letters.

A technique to optimally design a meteorological network

Bumbaco, K.A., and G.S. Mauger. (In review). A technique to optimally design a meteorological network. Submitted to Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Changes in 20th century extreme temperature and precipitation over the western United States from regional climate model simulations and observations

Dulière, V., Y. Zhang, and E.P. Salathé. (In review). Changes in 20th century extreme temperature and precipitation over the western United States from regional climate model simulations and observations. Submitted to Climatic Change.

Impacts of regional climate change on the Pacific Northwest white water recreation industry

Mickelson, K.E.B., and A.F. Hamlet. (In review). Impacts of regional climate change on the Pacific Northwest white water recreation industry. Submitted to Climatic Change.

2012

Paleoreconstruction of cool season precipitation and warm season streamflow in the Pacific Northwest with estimates of uncertainties and applications to climate change assessments

Lutz, E.R., A.F. Hamlet, and J.S. Littell. 2012. Paleoreconstruction of cool season precipitation and warm season streamflow in the Pacific Northwest with estimates of uncertainties and applications to climate change assessments. Water Resources Research 48(1), W01525, 16pp, doi:10.1029/2011WR010687.

2011

Potential climate change impacts on thermal habitats of Pacific salmon in the North Pacific Ocean and adjacent seas

Aziz, O,, N.J. Mantua, and K.W. Myers. 2011. Potential climate change impacts on thermal habitats of Pacific salmon in the North Pacific Ocean and adjacent seas. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 68: 1660-1680.

Projected climate change over Southeast Asia simulated using a WRF regional climate model

Chotamonsak, C., E.P. Salathé, J. Kreasuwan, S. Chantara, and K. Siriwitayakorn. 2011. Projected climate change over Southeast Asia simulated using a WRF regional climate model. Atmospheric Science Letters 12(2):213–219, doi: 10.1002/asl.313.

Extreme precipitations and temperatures over the U.S. Pacific Northwest: A comparison between observations, reanalysis data and regional models

Dulière, V., Y. Zhang, and E.P. Salathé. 2011. Extreme precipitations and temperatures over the U.S. Pacific Northwest: A comparison between observations, reanalysis data and regional models. Journal of Climate 24(7): 1950–1964, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3224.1.

Adapting to climate change at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park

Halofsky, J.E., D.L. Peterson, K. O'Halloran, and C. Hawkins Hoffman. (Editors) 2011. Adapting to climate change at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report PNW-GTR-844. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, Oregon. 130 p.

Impacts of climate variability and climate change on transportation systems and infrastructure in the Pacific Northwest

Hamlet, A.F. 2011. Impacts of climate variability and climate change on transportation systems and infrastructure in the Pacific Northwest. A White Paper prepared for the Western Federal Lands-Highway Division by the Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle.

Temporal and spatial variability in warm season nocturnal air temperatures in two north Idaho mountain ranges

Holden, Z., S.A. Cushman, M.C. Crimmins, and J.S. Littell. 2011. Temporal and spatial variability in warm season nocturnal air temperatures in two north Idaho mountain ranges. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151: 261–269.

Methodology for developing flood rule curves conditioned on El Niño-Southern Oscillation classification

Lee, S.Y., A.F. Hamlet, C.J. Fitzgerald, and S.J. Burges. 2011. Methodology for developing flood rule curves conditioned on El Niño-Southern Oscillation classification. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 47(1): 81-92, doi: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00490.x.

Regional Climate and Hydrologic Change in the Northern U.S. Rockies and Pacific Northwest: Internally Consistent Projections of Future Climate for Resource Management

Littell, J.S., M.M. Elsner, G.S. Mauger, E.R. Lutz, A.F. Hamlet, and E.P. Salathé. 2011. Regional Climate and Hydrologic Change in the Northern U.S. Rockies and Pacific Northwest: Internally Consistent Projections of Future Climate for Resource Management. Preliminary project report, USFS JVA 09-JV-11015600-039. Prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle.

Climatic water balance and regional fire years in the Pacific Northwest, USA: Linking regional climate and fire at landscape scales

Littell, J.S., and R. Gwozdz. 2011. Climatic water balance and regional fire years in the Pacific Northwest, USA: Linking regional climate and fire at landscape scales. Chapter 5, pp. 117-139. In McKenzie, D., C.M. Miller, and D.A. Falk (eds.), The Landscape Ecology of Fire, Ecological Studies 213, Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, doi 10.1007/978-94-007-0301-8_5

Managing uncertainty in climate-driven ecological models to inform adaptation to climate change

Littell, J.S., D. McKenzie, B.K. Kerns, S.C. Cushman, and C.G. Shaw. 2011. Managing uncertainty in climate-driven ecological models to inform adaptation to climate change. Ecosphere 2(9): article 102, doi:10.1890/ES11-00114.1.

U.S. National Forests adapt to climate change through science-management partnerships

Littell, J.S., D.L. Peterson, C.I. Millar, and K. O'Halloran. 2011. U.S. National Forests adapt to climate change through science-management partnerships. Climatic Change doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0066-0.

Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors

McKelvey, K.S., J.P. Copeland, M.K. Schwartz, J.S. Littell, K.B. Aubry, J.R. Squires, S.A. Parks, M.M. Elsner, and G.S. Mauger. 2011. Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors. Ecological Applications 21(8): 2882-2897, doi: 10.1890/10-2206.1.

Climate change and wilderness fire regimes

McKenzie, D., and J.S. Littell. 2011. Climate change and wilderness fire regimes. International Journal of Wilderness 17(1): 22-31.

The Landscape Ecology of Fire

McKenzie, D., C. Miller, and D.A. Falk. (Editors) 2011. The Landscape Ecology of Fire. Ecological Studies Series, vol. 213. London: Springer Publishing Services, doi: 10.1007/978-94-007-0301-8

Past trends and future scenarios for environmental conditions favoring the accumulation of paralytic shellfish toxins in Puget Sound shellfish

Moore, S.K., N.J. Mantua, and E.P. Salathé. 2011. Past trends and future scenarios for environmental conditions favoring the accumulation of paralytic shellfish toxins in Puget Sound shellfish. Harmful Algae 10:521–529, doi:10.1016/j.hal.2011.04.004.

Multiscale influence of climate on estuarine populations of forage fish: The role of coastal upwelling, freshwater flow and temperature

Reum, J.C.P., T.E. Essington, C.M. Green, C.A. Rice, and K.L. Fresh. 2011. Multiscale influence of climate on estuarine populations of forage fish: The role of coastal upwelling, freshwater flow and temperature. Marine Ecology Progress Series 425: 203-215, doi:10.3354/meps08997.

Climate change and mountain water resources: Overview and recommendations for research, management, and policy

Viviroli, D., D.R. Archer, W. Buytaert, H.J. Fowler, G.B. Greenwood, A.F. Hamlet, Y. Huang, G. Koboltschnig, M.I. Litaor, J.I. Lpez-Moreno, S. Lorentz, B. Schdler, H. Schreier, K. Schwaiger, M. Vuille, and R. Woods. 2011. Climate change and mountain water resources: Overview and recommendations for research, management, and policy. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 15(2): 471-504, doi:10.5194/hess-15-471-2011.

Simulating the effects of climate change on population connectivity of American marten (Martes americana) in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA

Wasserman, T.N., S.A. Cushman, A.S. Shirk, E.L. Landguth, and J.S. Littell. 2011. Simulating the effects of climate change on population connectivity of American marten (Martes americana) in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA. Landscape Ecology 27(2): 211-225, doi: 10.1007/s10980-011-9653-8.

Flow regime, temperature and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change

Wenger, S.J., D.J. Isaak, C.H. Luce, H.M. Neville, K.D. Fausch, J.B. Dunham, D.C. Dauwalter, M.K. Young, M.M. Elsner, B.E. Rieman, A.F. Hamlet, and J.E. Williams. 2011. Flow regime, temperature and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108(34): 14175-14180, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1103097108.

Interactions between climate and population density in the episodic recruitment of bocaccio, Sebastes paucispinis, a Pacific rockfish

Zabel, R.W., P.S. Levin, N. Tolimieri, and N.J. Mantua. 2011. Interactions between climate and population density in the episodic recruitment of bocaccio, Sebastes paucispinis, a Pacific rockfish. Fisheries Oceanography 20(4): 294–304, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2419.2011.00584.x.

2010

Seasonal hydrologic forecasting: Do multimodel ensemble averages always yield improvements in forecast skill?

Bohn, T.J., M.Y. Sonessa, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2010. Seasonal hydrologic forecasting: Do multimodel ensemble averages always yield improvements in forecast skill?. Journal of Hydrometeorology 11(6): 1358–1372, doi: 10.1175/2010JHM1267.1.

Fine scale hydrologic model implementation and fine-scale/macro-scale model inter-comparison study

Carrasco, P., and A.F. Hamlet. 2010. Fine scale hydrologic model implementation and fine-scale/macro-scale model inter-comparison study. Chapter 6 in Final Report for the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project, Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

Regional interdecadal variability in bias-corrected ocean temperature data

Carson, M., and D.E. Harrison. 2010. Regional interdecadal variability in bias-corrected ocean temperature data. Journal of Climate23:2847–2855, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3121.1.

Historical meteorological driving data set

Deems, J., and A.F. Hamlet. 2010. Historical meteorological driving data set. Chapter 3 in Final Report for the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project, Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington State

Elsner, M.M., L. Cuo, N. Voisin, J. Deems, A.F. Hamlet, J.A. Vano, K.E.B. Mickelson, S.Y. Lee, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2010. Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington State. Climatic Change 102(1-2): 225-260, doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9855-0.

Macro-scale hydrologic model implementation

Elsner, M.M., and A.F. Hamlet. 2010. Macro-scale hydrologic model implementation. Chapter 5 in Final Report for the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project, Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

Data products test procedures

Elsner, M.M., G.S. Mauger, I. Tohver, S.Y. Lee, and A.F. Hamlet. 2010. Data products test procedures. Chapter 9 in Final Report for the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project, Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

Quantifying hypoxia impacts on an estuarine demersal community using a hierarchical ensemble approach

Essington, T.E., and C.E. Paulsen. 2010. Quantifying hypoxia impacts on an estuarine demersal community using a hierarchical ensemble approach. Ecosystems 13(7): 1035-1048, doi: 10.1007/s10021-010-9372-z.

Estimating the water budget of major U.S. river basins via remote sensing

Gao, H., Q. Tang, C.R. Ferguson, E.F. Wood, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2010. Estimating the water budget of major U.S. river basins via remote sensing. International Journal of Remote Sensing 31(14): 3955-3978, doi: 10.1080/01431161.2010.483488.

Assessing water resources adaptive capacity to climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest region of North America

Hamlet, A.F. 2010. Assessing water resources adaptive capacity to climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest region of North America. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 7(4): 4437-4471, doi:10.5194/hessd-7-4437-2010.

Introduction and project overview

Hamlet, A.F. 2010. Introduction and project overview. Chapter 1 in Final Report for the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project, Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

Seattle City Light Climate Change Analysis: Climate Change Impacts on Regional Climate, Climate Extremes, Streamflow, Water Temperature, and Hydrologic Extremes

Hamlet, A.F., S.Y. Lee, N.J. Mantua, E.P. Salathé, A.K. Snover, R. Steed, and I. Tohver. 2010. Seattle City Light Climate Change Analysis: Climate Change Impacts on Regional Climate, Climate Extremes, Streamflow, Water Temperature, and Hydrologic Extremes. Prepared for The City of Seattle, Seattle City Light by The Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington. June.

Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State

Hamlet, A.F., S.Y. Lee, K.E.B. Mickelson, and M.M. Elsner. 2010. Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State. Climatic Change 102(1-2): 103-128, doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9857-y.

Streamflow locations, sources of natural streamflow data, and key hydrologic products

Hamlet, A.F., G.S. Mauger, and S.Y. Lee. 2010. Streamflow locations, sources of natural streamflow data, and key hydrologic products. Chapter 8 in Final Report for the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project, Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

Statistical downscaling techniques for global climate model simulations of temperature and precipitation with application to water resources planning studies

Hamlet, A.F., E.P. Salathé, and P. Carrasco. 2010. Statistical downscaling techniques for global climate model simulations of temperature and precipitation with application to water resources planning studies. Chapter 4 in Final Report for the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project, Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: projected mortality risks due to heat events and air pollution

Jackson, J.E., M.G. Yost, C. Karr, C. Fitzpatrick, B. Lamb, S.H. Chung, J. Chen, J. Avise, R.A. Rosenblatt, and R.A. Fenske. 2010. Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: projected mortality risks due to heat events and air pollution. Climatic Change 102(1-2): 159-186, doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9852-3.

Overview of website design and implementation

Kamstra, T., and A.F. Hamlet. 2010. Overview of website design and implementation. Chapter 9 in Final Report for the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project, Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

Using a stochastic model and cross-scale analysis to evaluate controls on historical low-severity fire regimes

Kennedy, M.C., and D. McKenzie. 2010. Using a stochastic model and cross-scale analysis to evaluate controls on historical low-severity fire regimes. Landscape Ecology 25(10):1561-1573, doi: 10.1007/s10980-010-9527-5.

Assessing Pacific Northwest water resources stakeholder data needs

Lee, C., and L.C. Whitely Binder. 2010. Assessing Pacific Northwest water resources stakeholder data needs. Chapter 2 in Final Report for the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project, Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

Daily time step refinement of optimized flood control rule curves for a global warming scenario

Lee, S.Y., C.J. Fitzgerald, A.F. Hamlet, and S.J. Burges. 2010. Daily time step refinement of optimized flood control rule curves for a global warming scenario. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 137: 309-317, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000125.

Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA

Littell, J.S., E.E. Oneil, D. McKenzie, J.A. Hicke, J.A. Lutz, R.A. Norheim, and M.M. Elsner. 2010. Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA. Climatic Change 102(1-2): 129-158, doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9858-x.

Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and summertime stream temperature and their possible consequences for freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State.

Mantua, N.J., I. Tohver, and A.F. Hamlet. 2010. Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and summertime stream temperature and their possible consequences for freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State.. Climatic Change 102(1-2): 187-223, doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9845-2.

The effects of climatic change and wildland fires on air quality in national parks and wilderness areas

McKenzie, D. 2010. The effects of climatic change and wildland fires on air quality in national parks and wilderness areas. Fire Management Today 70:26-28.

Assessing regional impacts and adaptation strategies for climate change: The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment as a case study

Miles, E.L., M.M. Elsner, J.S. Littell, L.C. Whitely Binder, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2010. Assessing regional impacts and adaptation strategies for climate change: The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment as a case study. Climatic Change 102(1-2): 9-27, doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9853-2

The relative influences of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation on paralytic shellfish toxin accumulation in Pacific Northwest shellfish

Moore, S.K., N.J. Mantua, B.M. Hickey, and V.L. Trainer. 2010. The relative influences of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation on paralytic shellfish toxin accumulation in Pacific Northwest shellfish. Limnology and Oceanography 55: 2262-2274, doi:10.4319/lo.2010.55.6.2262.

Future climate in the Pacific Northwest

Mote, P.W., and E.P. Salathé. 2010. Future climate in the Pacific Northwest. Climatic Change 102(1-2): 29-50, doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9848-z.

Response of Colorado River runoff to dust radiative forcing in snow

Painter, T.H., J. Deems, J. Belnap, A.F. Hamlet, C.C. Landry, and B. Udall. 2010. Response of Colorado River runoff to dust radiative forcing in snow. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107(40): 17125-17130, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0913139107.

Precipitation extremes and the impacts of climate change on stormwater infrastructure in Washington State

Rosenberg, E.A., P.W. Keys, D.B. Booth, D. Hartley, J. Burkey, A.C. Steinemann, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2010. Precipitation extremes and the impacts of climate change on stormwater infrastructure in Washington State. Climatic Change 102(1-2): 319-349, doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9847-0.

Regional climate model projections for the State of Washington

Salathé, E.P., L.R. Leung, Y. Qian, and Y. Zhang. 2010. Regional climate model projections for the State of Washington. Climatic Change 102(1-2): 51-75, doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9849-y.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation Phenomenon

Sarachik, E.S., and M.A. Cane. 2010. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation Phenomenon. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press.

Re-allocating water in the Pacific Northwest

Slaughter, R. 2010. Re-allocating water in the Pacific Northwest. In The Water Report 77:16-25.

Mandates vs. markets: Addressing over-allocation of Pacific Northwest river basins

Slaughter, R., A.F. Hamlet, D.D. Huppert, J. Hamilton, and P.W. Mote. 2010. Mandates vs. markets: Addressing over-allocation of Pacific Northwest river basins. Water Policy 12 (2010) 305–317, doi: 10.2166/wp.2009.152.

Application of partial least squares regression to the diagnosis of year-to-year variations in Pacific Northwest snowpack and Atlantic hurricanes

Smoliak, B.V., J.M. Wallace, M.T. Stoelinga, and T.P. Mitchell. 2010. Application of partial least squares regression to the diagnosis of year-to-year variations in Pacific Northwest snowpack and Atlantic hurricanes. Geophysical Research Letters 37, L03801, doi:10.1029/2009GL041478.

Assessment of climate change impact on eastern Washington agriculture

Stöckle, C., R.L. Nelson, S. Higgins, J. Brunner, G. Grove, R. Boydston, M. Whiting, and C. Kruger. 2010. Assessment of climate change impact on eastern Washington agriculture. Climatic Change 102(1-2): 77-102, doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9851-4.

Impacts of 21st century climate change on hydrologic extremes in the Pacific Northwest region of North America

Tohver, I., and A.F. Hamlet. 2010. Impacts of 21st century climate change on hydrologic extremes in the Pacific Northwest region of North America. Chapter 7 in Final Report for the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project, Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

Climate change impacts on water management and irrigated agriculture in the Yakima River basin, Washington, USA

Vano, J.A., M. Scott, N. Voisin, C. Stöckle, A.F. Hamlet, K.E.B. Mickelson, M.M. Elsner, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2010. Climate change impacts on water management and irrigated agriculture in the Yakima River basin, Washington, USA. Climatic Change 102(1-2): 287-317, doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9856-z.

Climate change impacts on water management in the Puget Sound region, Washington, USA

Vano, J.A., N. Voisin, L. Cuo, A.F. Hamlet, M.M. Elsner, R.N. Palmer, A. Polebitski, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2010. Climate change impacts on water management in the Puget Sound region, Washington, USA. Climatic Change 102(1-2): 261-286, doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9846-1

Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics

Wenger, S.J., C.H. Luce, A.F. Hamlet, D.J. Isaak, and H.M. Neville. 2010. Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics. Water Resources Research, 46, W09513, doi:10.1029/2009WR008839

Preparing for climate change in Washington State

Whitely Binder, L.C., J. Krencicki Barcelos, D.B. Booth, M. Darzen, M.M. Elsner, R.A. Fenske, T.F. Graham, A.F. Hamlet, J. Hodges-Howell, J.E. Jackson, C. Karr, P.W. Keys, J.S. Littell, N.J. Mantua, J. Marlow, D. McKenzie, M. Robinson-Dorn, E.A. Rosenberg, C. Stöckle, and J.A. Vano. 2010. Preparing for climate change in Washington State. Climatic Change 102(1-2): 351-376, doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9850-5.

2009

Implications of global climate change for snowmelt hydrology in the 21st century

Adam, J.C., A.F. Hamlet, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2009. Implications of global climate change for snowmelt hydrology in the 21st century. Hydrological Processes 23(7), 962-972.

Modeling snow accumulation and ablation processes in forested environments

Andreadis, K.M., P. Storck, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2009. Modeling snow accumulation and ablation processes in forested environments. Water Resources Research, 45, W05429, doi:10.1029/2008WR007042.

Attribution of projected changes in U.S. ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations to specific global changes

Avise, J., J. Chen, B. Lamb, C. Wiedinmyer, A. Guenther, E.P. Salathé, and C.F. Mass. 2009. Attribution of projected changes in U.S. ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations to specific global changes. Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics 9: 1111-1124.

Options for national parks and reserves for adapting to climate change

Baron, J.S., L. Gunderson, C.D. Allen, E. Fleishman, D. McKenzie, L.A. Meyerson, J. Oropeza, and N. Stephenson. 2009. Options for national parks and reserves for adapting to climate change. Environmental Management 44(6):1033-1042, doi: 10.1007/s00267-009-9296-6.

Adapting to climate change in United States national forests

Blate, G.M., L.A. Joyce, J.S. Littell, S.G. McNulty, C.I. Millar, S.C. Moser, R.P. Neilson, K. O'Halloran, and D.L. Peterson. 2009. Adapting to climate change in United States national forests. Unasylva 60(231/232): 57-62.

The response of Northern Hemisphere snow cover to a changing climate

Brown, R.D., and P.W. Mote. 2009. The response of Northern Hemisphere snow cover to a changing climate. Journal of Climate 22(8):2124-2145, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2665.1.

Assessing the impacts of global warming on snowpack in the Washington Cascades

Casola, J.H., L. Cuo, B. Livneh, D.P. Lettenmaier, M.T. Stoelinga, P.W. Mote, and J.M. Wallace. 2009. Assessing the impacts of global warming on snowpack in the Washington Cascades. Journal of Climate 22:2758-2772, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2612.1.

Future land use and land cover influences on regional biogenic emissions and air quality in the United States

Chen, J., J. Avise, A. Guenther, C. Wiedinmyer, E.P. Salathé, R.B. Jackson, and B. Lamb. 2009. Future land use and land cover influences on regional biogenic emissions and air quality in the United States. Atmospheric Environment 43(36):5771-5780, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.08.015.

The effects of global changes upon regional ozone pollution in the United States

Chen, J., J. Avise, B. Lamb, E.P. Salathé, C.F. Mass, A. Guenther, C. Wiedinmyer, J-F. Lamarque, S. O'Neill, D. McKenzie, and N. Larkin. 2009. The effects of global changes upon regional ozone pollution in the United States. Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics 9: 1125-1141.

The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment

Climate Impacts Group 2009. The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. M. McGuire Elsner, J. Littell, and L. Whitely Binder (eds). Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.

Effects of a century of land cover and climate change on the hydrology of Puget Sound basin

Cuo, L., D.P. Lettenmaier, M. Alberti, and J.E. Richey. 2009. Effects of a century of land cover and climate change on the hydrology of Puget Sound basin. Hydrological Processes 23: 907-933.

Setting the record straight: Responses to common challenges to climate science

Doppelt, B., C.S. Bretherton, N.J. Mantua, and P.W. Mote. 2009. Setting the record straight: Responses to common challenges to climate science. White paper prepared by the University of Oregon's Climate Leadership Initiative in partnership with the University of Washington's Climate Impacts Group. January 2009.

Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington State

Elsner, M.M., L. Cuo, N. Voisin, J. Deems, A.F. Hamlet, J.A. Vano, K.E.B. Mickelson, S.Y. Lee, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2009. Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington State. Chapter 3.1 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.

Assessing vulnerability to natural hazards: An impact-based method and application to drought in Washington State

Fontaine, M., and A.C. Steinemann. 2009. Assessing vulnerability to natural hazards: An impact-based method and application to drought in Washington State. Natural Hazards Review 10(1):11-18.

Preparing for climate change impacts to state-owned aquatic lands: A climate change adaptation strategy for the Washington Department of Natural Resources Aquatic Resources Program

Fredrickson, A.L. 2009. Preparing for climate change impacts to state-owned aquatic lands: A climate change adaptation strategy for the Washington Department of Natural Resources Aquatic Resources Program. M.M.A. thesis, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle.

Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State

Hamlet, A.F., S.Y. Lee, K.E.B. Mickelson, and M.M. Elsner. 2009. Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State. Chapter 4 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.

Pre- and post-1997/1998 westerly wind events and Equatorial Pacific cold tongue warming

Harrison, D.E., and A.M. Chiodi. 2009. Pre- and post-1997/1998 westerly wind events and Equatorial Pacific cold tongue warming. Journal of Climate22: 568-581, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2270.1.

Effects of surface forcing on the seasonal cycle of the eastern equatorial Pacific

Harrison, D.E., A.M. Chiodi, and G. Vecchi. 2009. Effects of surface forcing on the seasonal cycle of the eastern equatorial Pacific. Journal of Marine Research 67(6):701-729

Detection and attribution of streamflow timing change in the Western United States

Hidalgo, H., T. Das, M. Dettinger, D.R. Cayan, D. Pierce, T. Barnett, G. Bala, A, Mirin, A.W. Wood, C. Bonfils, B.D. Santer, and T. Nozawa. 2009. Detection and attribution of streamflow timing change in the Western United States. Journal of Climate doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2470.1 (early online release version).

Reconciling projections of Colorado River streamflow

Hoerling, M., D.P. Lettenmaier, D. Cayan, and B. Udall. 2009. Reconciling projections of Colorado River streamflow. Southwest Hydrology 8(3): 20-21, 31.

Defining spring transition: Regional indices for the California Current

Holt, C., and N.J. Mantua. 2009. Defining spring transition: Regional indices for the California Current. Marine Ecology Progress Series 393: 285–299, doi:10.3354/meps08147.

Impacts of climate change on the coasts of Washington State

Huppert, D.D., A. Moore, and K. Dyson. 2009. Impacts of climate change on the coasts of Washington State. Chapter 8 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.

Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: projected mortality risks due to heat events and air pollution

Jackson, J.E., M.G. Yost, C. Karr, C. Fitzpatrick, B. Lamb, S.H. Chung, J. Chen, J. Avise, R.A. Rosenblatt, and R.A. Fenske. 2009. Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: projected mortality risks due to heat events and air pollution. Chapter 10 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.

Simulation of the Argo observing system in an ocean general circulation model

Kamenkovich, I.V., W. Cheng, E.S. Sarachik, and D.E. Harrison. 2009. Simulation of the Argo observing system in an ocean general circulation model. Journal of Geophysical Research 114, C09021, doi:10.1029/2008JC005184.

Effects of fire-precipitation timing and regime on post-fire sediment delivery in Pacific Northwest forests

Lanini, J.L., E.A. Clark, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2009. Effects of fire-precipitation timing and regime on post-fire sediment delivery in Pacific Northwest forests. Geophysical Research Letters 36, L01402, doi:10.1029/2008GL034588.

Optimized flood control in the Columbia River Basin for a global warming scenario

Lee, S.Y., A.F. Hamlet, C.J. Fitzgerald, S.J. Burges, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2009. Optimized flood control in the Columbia River Basin for a global warming scenario. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 135(6): 440-450, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2009)135:6(440).

Land waters and sea level

Lettenmaier, D.P., and P.C.D. Milly. 2009. Land waters and sea level. Nature Geoscience 2: 452-454, doi:10.1038/ngeo567.

The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate - Executive Summary

Littell, J.S., M.M. Elsner, L.C. Whitely Binder, and A.K. Snover. (Editors) 2009. The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate - Executive Summary. In The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.

Climate and wildfire area burned in Western U.S. ecoprovinces, 1916-2003

Littell, J.S., D. McKenzie, D.L. Peterson, and A.L. Westerling. 2009. Climate and wildfire area burned in Western U.S. ecoprovinces, 1916-2003. Ecological Applications 19(4):1003–1021.

Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA

Littell, J.S., E.E. Oneil, D. McKenzie, J.A. Hicke, J.A. Lutz, R.A. Norheim, and M.M. Elsner. 2009. Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA. Chapter 7 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.

Patterns of change in climate and Pacific salmon production

Mantua, N.J. 2009. Patterns of change in climate and Pacific salmon production. Pages 1143 – 1157 in C.C. Krueger and C.E. Zimmerman (eds.), Pacific Salmon: Ecology and Management of Western Alaska’s Populations, American Fisheries Society, Symposium 70, Bethesda, Maryland.

The salmon MALBEC project: A North Pacific-scale study to support salmon conservation planning

Mantua, N.J., N.G. Taylor, G.T. Ruggerone, K.W. Myers, D. Preikshot, X. Augerot, N.D. Davis, B. Dorner, R. Hilborn, R.M. Peterman, P. Rand, D. Schindler, J. Stanford, R.V. Walker, and C.J. Walters. 2009. The salmon MALBEC project: A North Pacific-scale study to support salmon conservation planning. Proceedings of the NPAFC BASIS Symposium Bulletin No. 5: 333–354.

Impacts of climate change on key aspects of freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State

Mantua, N.J., I. Tohver, and A.F. Hamlet. 2009. Impacts of climate change on key aspects of freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State. Chapter 6 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.

Climate model based consensus on the hydrologic impacts of climate change to the Rio Lempa basin of Central America

Maurer, E.P., J.C. Adam, and A.W. Wood. 2009. Climate model based consensus on the hydrologic impacts of climate change to the Rio Lempa basin of Central America. Hydrol. Earth System Sciences 13(2):183-194.

Global warming and stress complexes in forests of western North America

McKenzie, D., D.L. Peterson, and J.S. Littell. 2009. Global warming and stress complexes in forests of western North America. pp. 319-337. In S. V. Krupa (series editor), Developments in Environmental Science, Vol. 8, Wild Land Fires and Air Pollution, A. Bytnerowicz, M. Arbaugh, A. Riebau, and C. Anderson (eds.). Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Elsevier Science, Ltd.

On the increasing vulnerability of the world ocean to multiple stresses

Miles, E.L. 2009. On the increasing vulnerability of the world ocean to multiple stresses. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 34: 17-41, doi:10.1146/annurev.environ.33.041707.110117.

Future climate in the Pacific Northwest

Mote, P.W., and E.P. Salathé. 2009. Future climate in the Pacific Northwest. Chapter 1 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.

Holocene fire history in the North Cascade Range, Washington

Prichard, S.J., Z.M. Gedalof, W. Wyatt Oswald, and D.L. Peterson. 2009. Holocene fire history in the North Cascade Range, Washington. Quaternary Research 72(1): 57-67, doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2009.03.008.

Precipitation extremes and the impacts of climate change on stormwater infrastructure in Washington State

Rosenberg, E.A., P.W. Keys, D.B. Booth, D. Hartley, J. Burkey, A.C. Steinemann, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2009. Precipitation extremes and the impacts of climate change on stormwater infrastructure in Washington State. Chapter 9 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.

Regional climate model projections for the State of Washington

Salathé, E.P., L.R. Leung, Y. Qian, and Y. Zhang. 2009. Regional climate model projections for the State of Washington. Chapter 2 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.

A transactions cost approach to the theoretical foundations of water markets

Slaughter, R. 2009. A transactions cost approach to the theoretical foundations of water markets. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 45(2): 331-342.

Assessment of climate change impact on eastern Washington agriculture

Stöckle, C., R.L. Nelson, S. Higgins, J. Brunner, G. Grove, R. Boydston, M. Whiting, and C. Kruger. 2009. Assessment of climate change impact on eastern Washington agriculture. Chapter 5 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.

Real-time precipitation estimation based on index station percentiles

Tang, Q., A.W. Wood, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2009. Real-time precipitation estimation based on index station percentiles. Journal of Hydrometeorology 10(1): 266-277.

Climate change impacts on water management and irrigated agriculture in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA

Vano, J.A., M. Scott, N. Voisin, C. Stöckle, A.F. Hamlet, K.E.B. Mickelson, M.M. Elsner, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2009. Climate change impacts on water management and irrigated agriculture in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA. Chapter 3.3 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.

Climate change impacts on water management in the Puget Sound region, Washington, USA

Vano, J.A., N. Voisin, L. Cuo, A.F. Hamlet, M.M. Elsner, R.N. Palmer, A. Polebitski, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2009. Climate change impacts on water management in the Puget Sound region, Washington, USA. Chapter 3.2 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.

Costs and benefits of stormwater management: Case study of the Puget Sound region

Visitacion, B., D.B. Booth, and A.C. Steinemann. 2009. Costs and benefits of stormwater management: Case study of the Puget Sound region. ASCE Journal of Urban Planning and Development 135(4):150-158, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9488(2009)135:4(150)).

Multimodel ensemble reconstruction of drought over the continental United States

Wang, A., T.J. Bohn, S.P. Mahanama, R.D. Koster, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2009. Multimodel ensemble reconstruction of drought over the continental United States. Journal of Climate 22(10): 2694–2712.

A preliminary synthesis of modeled climate change impacts on U.S. regional ozone concentrations

Weaver, C.P., X.-Z. Liang, J. Zhu, P.J. Adams, P. Amar, J. Avise, M. Caughey, J. Chen, R.C. Cohen, E. Cooter, J.P. Dawson, R. Gilliam, A. Gilliland, A.H. Goldstein, A. Grambsch, D. Grano, A. Guenther, W.I. Gustafson, R.A. Harley, S. He, B. Hemming, C. Hogrefe, H.-C. Huang, S.W. Hunt, D.J. Jacob, P.L. Kinney, K. Kunkel, J-F. Lamarque, B. Lamb, N.K. Larkin, L.R. Leung, K.-J. Liao, J.-T. Lin, B.H. Lynn, K. Manomaiphiboon, C. Mass, D. McKenzie, L.J. Mickley, S.M. O'Neill, C. Nolte, S.N. Pandis, P.N. Racherla, C. Rosenzweig, A.G. Russell, E.P. Salathé, A.L. Steiner, E. Tagaris, Z. Tao, S. Tonse, C. Wiedinmyer, A. Williams, D.A. Winner, J.-H. Woo, S. Wu, and D.J. Wuebbles. 2009. A preliminary synthesis of modeled climate change impacts on U.S. regional ozone concentrations. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 90:1843-1863.

Preparing for climate change in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Whitely Binder, L.C. 2009. Preparing for climate change in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. West-Northwest Journal of Environmental Law and Policy 15(1):183-196.

Preparing for climate change in Washington State

Whitely Binder, L.C., J. Krencicki Barcelos, D.B. Booth, M. Darzen, M.M. Elsner, R.A. Fenske, T.F. Graham, A.F. Hamlet, J. Hodges-Howell, D.D. Huppert, E.A. Rosenberg, C. Stöckle, and J.A. Vano. 2009. Preparing for climate change in Washington State. Chapter 11 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate, Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.

Evaluation of WRF and HadRM mesoscale climate simulations over the United States Pacific Northwest

Zhang, Y., V. Dulière, P.W. Mote, and E.P. Salathé. 2009. Evaluation of WRF and HadRM mesoscale climate simulations over the United States Pacific Northwest. Journal of Climate 22(20):5511-5526, doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2875.1.

2008

Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States

Barnett, T., D.W. Pierce, H. Hidalgo, C. Bonfils, B.D. Santer, T. Das, G. Bala, A.W. Wood, T. Nazawa, A, Mirin, D. Cayan, and M. Dettinger. 2008. Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States. Science Science Express Reports 10.1126/science.1152538.

Detection and attribution of temperature changes in the mountainous western United States

Bonfils, C., D.W. Pierce, B.D. Santer, H. Hidalgo, G. Bala, T. Das, T. Barnett, C. Doutriaux, A.W. Wood, A, Mirin, and T. Nazawa. 2008. Detection and attribution of temperature changes in the mountainous western United States. Journal of Climate 21(23):6404–6424, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2397.1.

Is the upper ocean warming? Comparisons of 50-year trends from different analyses

Carson, M., and D.E. Harrison. 2008. Is the upper ocean warming? Comparisons of 50-year trends from different analyses. Journal of Climate 21:2259-2268, doi: 10.1175/2007JCLI2002.1.

The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity

Climate Change Science Program 2008. The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. P. Backlund, A. Janetos, D. Schimel, J. Hatfield, K. Boote, P. Fay, L. Hahn, C. Izaurralde, B.A. Kimball, T. Mader, J. Morgan, D. Ort, W. Polley, A. Thomson, D. Wolfe, M. Ryan, S. Archer, R. Birdsey, C. Dahm, L. Heath, J. Hicke, D. Hollinger, T. Huxman, G. Okin, R. Oren, J. Randerson, W. Schlesinger, D. Lettenmaier, D. Major, L. Poff, S. Running, L. Hansen, D. Inouye, B.P. Kelly, L Meyerson, B. Peterson, R. Shaw. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC., USA, 362 pp.

Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: Evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon

Crozier, L.G., A.P. Hendry, P.W. Lawson, T.P. Quinn, N.J. Mantua, J. Battin, R.G. Shaw, and R.B. Huey. 2008. Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: Evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon. Evolutionary Applications 1(2): 252–270, doi:10.1111/j.1752-4571.2008.00033.x.

Predicting differential effects of climate change at the population level with life-cycle models of spring Chinook salmon

Crozier, L.G., R.W. Zabel, and A.F. Hamlet. 2008. Predicting differential effects of climate change at the population level with life-cycle models of spring Chinook salmon. Global Change Biology 14(2): 236–249, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01497.x.

Upper ocean warming: spatial patterns of trends and interdecadal variability

Harrison, D.E., and M. Carson. 2008. Upper ocean warming: spatial patterns of trends and interdecadal variability. NOAA Tech. Memo. OAR PMEL-138, 35 pp.

Characterizing the interannual variability of the equatorial Pacific: An OLR perspective

Harrison, D.E., and A.M. Chiodi. 2008. Characterizing the interannual variability of the equatorial Pacific: An OLR perspective. NOAA Tech. Memo. OAR PMEL-140. Seattle, WA, 30pp.

Climate drivers of regionally synchronous fires in the inland Northwest (1651-1900)

Heyerdahl, E.K., D. McKenzie, L. Daniels, A.E. Hessl, J.S. Littell, and N.J. Mantua. 2008. Climate drivers of regionally synchronous fires in the inland Northwest (1651-1900). International Journal of Wildland Fire 17:40-49.

National forests

Joyce, L.A., G.M. Blate, J.S. Littell, S.G. McNulty, C.I. Millar, S.C. Moser, and R.P. Neilson. 2008. National forests. Chapter 3 in S.H. Julius, J.M. West (eds.), J.S. Baron, B.Griffith, L.A. Joyce, P. Kareiva, B.D. Keller, M.A. Palmer, C.H. Peterson, and J.M. Scott (Authors), Preliminary Review of Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 3-1 to 3-127.

Glestcherschwund am Kilimanjaro

Kaser, G., and P.W. Mote. 2008. Glestcherschwund am Kilimanjaro. Spektrum der Wissenschaft, Januar 2008, 62-69.

Spatial models for inferring topographic controls on low-severity fire in the eastern Cascade Range of Washington, USA.

Kellogg, L-K.B., D. McKenzie, D.L. Peterson, and A.E. Hessl. 2008. Spatial models for inferring topographic controls on low-severity fire in the eastern Cascade Range of Washington, USA.. Landscape Ecology 23(2):227-240, DOI 10.1007/s10980-007-9188-1.

Douglas-fir growth in mountain ecosystems: Water limits tree growth from stand to region

Littell, J.S., D.L. Peterson, and M. Tjoelker. 2008. Douglas-fir growth in mountain ecosystems: Water limits tree growth from stand to region. Ecological Monographs 78(3): 349–368.

Modeling understory vegetation and its response to fire

McKenzie, D., C.L. Raymond, and S.C. Cushman. 2008. Modeling understory vegetation and its response to fire. Chapter 15, pp.391-414. In J. Millspaugh and F.R. Thompson III (eds.), Models for Planning Wildlife Conservation in Large Landscapes. Burlington, MA: Academic Press.

Stationarity is dead: Whither water management?

Milly, P.C.D., J. Betancourt, M. Falkenmark, R.M. Hirsch, Z.W. Kundzewicz, D.P. Lettenmaier, and R.J. Stouffer. 2008. Stationarity is dead: Whither water management?. Science 319 (5863): 573-574, DOI: 10.1126/science.1151915.

Recent trends in paralytic shellfish toxins in Puget Sound, relationships to climate, and capacity for prediction of toxic events

Moore, S.K., N.J. Mantua, B.M. Hickey, and V.L. Trainer. 2008. Recent trends in paralytic shellfish toxins in Puget Sound, relationships to climate, and capacity for prediction of toxic events. Harmful Algae, doi:10.1016/j.hal.2008.10.003.

Local and large-scale climate forcing of Puget Sound oceanographic properties on seasonal to interdecadal timescales

Moore, S.K., N.J. Mantua, J.P. Kellogg, and J.A. Newton. 2008. Local and large-scale climate forcing of Puget Sound oceanographic properties on seasonal to interdecadal timescales. Limnology and Oceanography 53(5): 1746-1758.

A descriptive analysis of temporal and spatial patterns of variability in Puget Sound oceanographic properties

Moore, S.K., N.J. Mantua, J.A. Newton, M. Kawase, M.J. Warner, and J.P. Kellogg. 2008. A descriptive analysis of temporal and spatial patterns of variability in Puget Sound oceanographic properties. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2008.09.016.

Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

Moore, S.K., V.L. Trainer, N.J. Mantua, D. Parker, E.A. Laws, L.C. Backer, and L.E. Fleming. 2008. Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health. Environmental Health 7(Suppl 2): S4, doi:10.1186/1476-069X-7-S2-S4.

Sensitivity of Northwest ski areas to warming

Mote, P.W., J. Casson, A.F. Hamlet, and D.C. Reading. 2008. Sensitivity of Northwest ski areas to warming. pp 63-67, in B. McGurk (ed.), Proceedings of the 75th Western Snow Conference, April 16-19, 2007, Kailua-Kona, Hawaii. Soda Springs, CA: Western Snow Conference.

Variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America

Mote, P.W., M. Clark, and A.F. Hamlet. 2008. Variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America. In F. Wagner (ed.), Proceedings of the AAAS Pacific Division Annual Meeting.

Has spring snowpack declined in the Washington Cascades?

Mote, P.W., A.F. Hamlet, and E.P. Salathé. 2008. Has spring snowpack declined in the Washington Cascades?. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 12: 193-206.

Sea Level Rise in the Coastal Waters of Washington State

Mote, P.W., A. Petersen, S. Reeder, H. Shipman, and L.C. Whitely Binder. 2008. Sea Level Rise in the Coastal Waters of Washington State. Report prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington and the Washington Department of Ecology, Lacey, Washington.

Scenarios of Future Climate Change for the Pacific Northwest

Mote, P.W., E.P. Salathé, V. Dulière, and E. Jump. 2008. Scenarios of Future Climate Change for the Pacific Northwest. Report prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington, Seattle.

Extended west-wide seasonal hydrological system: Seasonal hydrological prediction in the NAMS Region

Munoz-Arriola, F., D.P. Lettenmaier, C. Zhu, R. Lobato-Sanchez, and A. Wagner-Gomez. 2008. Extended west-wide seasonal hydrological system: Seasonal hydrological prediction in the NAMS Region. CLIVAR Exchanges 45, 13(2):24-25.

Research and Networks for Decision Support in the NOAA Sectoral Applications Research Program

National Research Council 2008. Research and Networks for Decision Support in the NOAA Sectoral Applications Research Program. Panel on Design Issues for the NOAA Sectoral Applications Research Program, H.M. Ingram and P.C. Stern (eds.), Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. The National Academies Press, Washington, DC. 84 pp.

Wild and scenic rivers

Palmer, M.A., D.P. Lettenmaier, N.L. Poff, S. Postel, B. Richter, and R. Warner. 2008. Wild and scenic rivers. Chapter 6 in S.H. Julius, J.M. West (eds.), J.S. Baron, B.Griffith, L.A. Joyce, P. Kareiva, B.D. Keller, M.A. Palmer, C.H. Peterson, and J.M. Scott (Authors), Preliminary Review of Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA, pp. 6-1 to 6-73.

Adapting decision making to uncertainty when addressing sea level rise response in Puget Sound

Petersen, A., D.J. Canning, T.M. Leschine, and E.L. Miles. 2008. Adapting decision making to uncertainty when addressing sea level rise response in Puget Sound. Proceedings of the 15th Biennial Coastal Zone Conference, July 22-26, 2007, Portland, Oregon. Charleston, SC: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Adapting to climate change on Olympic National Forest

Peterson, D.L., J.S. Littell, and K. O'Halloran. 2008. Adapting to climate change on Olympic National Forest. Mountain Views 2(1): 15-18.

Attribution of declining western U.S. snowpack to human effects

Pierce, D.W., T. Barnett, H. Hidalgo, T. Das, C. Bonfils, B.D. Santer, G. Bala, M. Dettinger, D. Cayan, A, Mirin, A.W. Wood, and T. Nazawa. 2008. Attribution of declining western U.S. snowpack to human effects. Journal of Climate 21(23): 6425–6444, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2405.1.

A high-resolution climate model for the U.S. Pacific Northwest: Mesoscale feedbacks and local responses to climate change

Salathé, E.P., R. Steed, C.F. Mass, and P. Zahn. 2008. A high-resolution climate model for the U.S. Pacific Northwest: Mesoscale feedbacks and local responses to climate change. Journal of Climate 21(21): 5708–5726, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2090.1.

Climate change, ecosystem impacts, and management for Pacific Salmon

Schindler, D., X. Augerot, E. Fleishman, N.J. Mantua, B. Riddell, M.H. Ruckelshaus, J. Seeb, and M. Webster. 2008. Climate change, ecosystem impacts, and management for Pacific Salmon. Fisheries 33(10):502-506.

How essential is hydrologic model calibration to seasonal streamflow forecasting?

Shi, X., A.W. Wood, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2008. How essential is hydrologic model calibration to seasonal streamflow forecasting?. Journal of Hydrometeorology 9(6):1350–1363, doi:10.1175/2008JHM1001.1.

Use of a standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrologic drought

Shukla, S., and A.W. Wood. 2008. Use of a standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrologic drought. Geophysical Research Letters 35, L02405, doi:10.1029/2007GL032487.

Evaluation of precipitation products for global hydrological prediction

Voisin, N., A.W. Wood, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2008. Evaluation of precipitation products for global hydrological prediction. Journal of Hydrometeorology 9(3):388-407.

The University of Washington Surface Water Monitor: An experimental platform for national hydrologic assessment and prediction.

Wood, A.W. 2008. The University of Washington Surface Water Monitor: An experimental platform for national hydrologic assessment and prediction.. In Proceedings of the AMS 22nd Conference on Hydrology, New Orleans, LA, January 20-24, 2008.

An ensemble approach for attribution of hydrologic prediction uncertainty

Wood, A.W., and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2008. An ensemble approach for attribution of hydrologic prediction uncertainty. Geophysical Research Letters 35, L14401, doi:10.1029/2008GL034648.

Correcting errors in streamflow forecast ensemble mean and spread

Wood, A.W., and J.C. Schaake. 2008. Correcting errors in streamflow forecast ensemble mean and spread. Journal of Hydrometeorology 9(1): 132-148.

The modulated annual cycle: An alternative reference frame for climate anomalies

Wu, Z., E.K. Schneider, B.P. Kirtman, E.S. Sarachik, B. Huang, and C.J. Tucker. 2008. The modulated annual cycle: An alternative reference frame for climate anomalies. Climate Dynamics 31: 823–841, 10.1007/s00382-008-0437-z.

2007

Technical Memorandum #7: Impacts of Climate Change on Cloud Cover in the Puget Sound Region

Alemu, E., and R.N. Palmer. 2007. Technical Memorandum #7: Impacts of Climate Change on Cloud Cover in the Puget Sound Region. A report prepared by the Climate Change Technical Subcommittee of the Regional Water Supply Planning Process, Seattle, WA.

Technical Memorandum #8: Impacts of Climate Change on Groundwater Resources- A Literature Review

Alexander, D., and R.N. Palmer. 2007. Technical Memorandum #8: Impacts of Climate Change on Groundwater Resources- A Literature Review. A report prepared by the Climate Change Technical Subcommittee of the Regional Water Supply Planning Process, Seattle, WA.

Technical Memorandum #1: Literature Review of Research Incorporating Climate Change into Water Resources Planning

Alexander, D., R.N. Palmer, and A. Polebitski. 2007. Technical Memorandum #1: Literature Review of Research Incorporating Climate Change into Water Resources Planning. A report prepared by the Climate Change Technical Subcommittee of the Regional Water Supply Planning Process, Seattle, WA.

Projected impacts of climate change on salmon habitat restoration

Battin, J., M.W. Wiley, M.H. Ruckelshaus, R.N. Palmer, E. Korb, K.K. Bartz, and H. Imaki. 2007. Projected impacts of climate change on salmon habitat restoration. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104(16): 6720–6725.

Growth-climate relations of Lodgepole Pine in the North Cascades National Park, Washington

Case, M.J., and D.L. Peterson. 2007. Growth-climate relations of Lodgepole Pine in the North Cascades National Park, Washington. Northwest Science 81(1):62-75.

HB 1303 Interim Report: A Comprehensive Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on the State of Washington

Climate Impacts Group 2007. HB 1303 Interim Report: A Comprehensive Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on the State of Washington. Report prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington.

The physical science behind climate change

Colman, R., W. Collins, J. Haywood, M. Manning, and P.W. Mote. 2007. The physical science behind climate change. Scientific American 297(2): 64-71.

Research Agenda for Integrated Landscape Modeling

Cushman, S.C., D. McKenzie, D.L. Peterson, J.S. Littell, and K.S. McKelvey. 2007. Research Agenda for Integrated Landscape Modeling. General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-194. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station.

Cross-scale analysis of fire regimes

Falk, D.A., C.M. Miller, D. McKenzie, and A.E. Black. 2007. Cross-scale analysis of fire regimes. Ecosystems 10(5): 809-823, doi 10.1007/s10021-007-9070-7.

Effects of 20th century warming and climate variability on flood risk in the western U.S.

Hamlet, A.F., and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2007. Effects of 20th century warming and climate variability on flood risk in the western U.S.. Water Resources Research 43, W06427, doi:10.1029/2006WR005099.

20th century trends in runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture in the Western U.S

Hamlet, A.F., P.W. Mote, M.P. Clark, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2007. 20th century trends in runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture in the Western U.S. Journal of Climate 20(8): 1468-1486. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI4051.1

Is the world ocean warming? Upper-ocean temperature trends: 1950-2000

Harrison, D.E., and M. Carson. 2007. Is the world ocean warming? Upper-ocean temperature trends: 1950-2000. Journal of Physical Oceanography 37(2): 174-187.

Climate Change Impacts on Columbia River Basin Fish and Wildlife

Independent Science Advisory Board 2007. Climate Change Impacts on Columbia River Basin Fish and Wildlife. Independent Scientific Advisory Board (ISAB) Climate Change Report ISAB 2007-2, Portland, OR.

Summary for Policymakers

IPCC 2007. Summary for Policymakers. In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. (Contributing author: Mote)

The value of short-run climate forecasts in managing the coastal coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) fishery in Washington State

Kaje, J.H., and D.D. Huppert. 2007. The value of short-run climate forecasts in managing the coastal coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) fishery in Washington State. Natural Resource Modeling 20(2):321-349.

Climate variability, climate change, and western wildfire with implications for the urban-wildland interface

Keeton, W.S., P.W. Mote, and J.F. Franklin. 2007. Climate variability, climate change, and western wildfire with implications for the urban-wildland interface. pp. 225-253. In A. Troy and R. Kennedy (eds)., Living on the Edge: Economic, Institutional and Management Perspectives on Wildfire Hazard in the Urban Interface. Advances in the Economics of Environmental Resources , Vol. 6. Oxford, United Kingdom: Elsevier Sciences JAI Press.

Observations: Changes in snow, ice and frozen ground

Lemke, P., J. Ren, R.B. Alley, I. Allison, J. Carrasco, G. Flato, Y. Fujii, G. Kaser, P.W. Mote, R.H. Thomas, and T. Zhang. 2007. Observations: Changes in snow, ice and frozen ground. Chapter 4 in S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

The salmon MALBEC project: A North Pacific-scale study to support salmon conservation planning

Mantua, N.J., N.G. Taylor, G.T. Ruggerone, K.W. Myers, D. Preikshot, X. Augerot, N.D. Davis, B. Dorner, R. Hilborn, R.M. Peterman, P. Rand, D. Schindler, J. Stanford, R.V. Walker, and C.J. Walters. 2007. The salmon MALBEC project: A North Pacific-scale study to support salmon conservation planning. (NPAFC Doc. 1060) School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle.

Climate change and disturbance regimes in western North America

McKenzie, D., and C.D. Allen. 2007. Climate change and disturbance regimes in western North America. EOS Transactions 88(21): 227.

Mapping fuels at multiple scales: Landscape application of the Fuel Characteristic Classification System

McKenzie, D., C.L. Raymond, J.P. Kellogg, R.A. Norheim, A.G. Andreu, A.C. Bayard, K.E. Kopper, and E Elman. 2007. Mapping fuels at multiple scales: Landscape application of the Fuel Characteristic Classification System. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 37: 2421-2437, doi:10.1139/X07-056.

El Niño

Mitchell, T.P., and E.S. Sarachik. 2007. El Niño. pp 98-103 in Vol.6, 2007 McGraw-Hill Encyclopedia of Science and Technology, 10th Edition. New York, New York: McGraw-Hill Publishing.

The shrinking glaciers of Kilimanjaro: Can global warming be blamed?

Mote, P.W., and G. Kaser. 2007. The shrinking glaciers of Kilimanjaro: Can global warming be blamed?. American Scientist 95(4):318-325.

Technical Memorandum #3: Online Database Functionality and Design for Climate Impacted Data

O'Neill, C., and R.N. Palmer. 2007. Technical Memorandum #3: Online Database Functionality and Design for Climate Impacted Data. A report prepared by the Climate Change Technical Subcommittee of the Regional Water Supply Planning Process, Seattle, WA.

Final Report of the Climate Change Technical Committee

Palmer, R.N. 2007. Final Report of the Climate Change Technical Committee. A report prepared by the Climate Change Technical Subcommittee of the Regional Water Supply Planning Process, Seattle, WA.

Technical Memorandum #6: Framework for Incorporating Climate Change into Water Resources Planning

Palmer, R.N. 2007. Technical Memorandum #6: Framework for Incorporating Climate Change into Water Resources Planning. A report prepared by the Climate Change Technical Subcommittee of the Regional Water Supply Planning Process, Seattle, WA.

Beached birds and physical forcing in the California Current System

Parrish, J.K., N. Bond, H. Nevins, N.J. Mantua, R. Loeffel, W.T. Peterson, and J.T. Harvey. 2007. Beached birds and physical forcing in the California Current System. Marine Ecology Progress Series 352: 275-288. Doi: 10.3354/meps07077

Anticipating sea level rise response in Puget Sound

Petersen, A. 2007. Anticipating sea level rise response in Puget Sound. M.M.A. thesis, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle.

Technical Memorandum #4: Approach for Developing Climate Impacted Meteorological Data and its Quality Assurance/Quality Control

Polebitski, A., L. Traynham, and R.N. Palmer. 2007. Technical Memorandum #4: Approach for Developing Climate Impacted Meteorological Data and its Quality Assurance/Quality Control. A report prepared by the Climate Change Technical Subcommittee of the Regional Water Supply Planning Process, Seattle, WA.

Technical Memorandum #5: Approach for Developing Climate Impacted Streamflow Data and its Quality Assurance/Quality Control

Polebitski, A., L. Traynham, and R.N. Palmer. 2007. Technical Memorandum #5: Approach for Developing Climate Impacted Streamflow Data and its Quality Assurance/Quality Control. A report prepared by the Climate Change Technical Subcommittee of the Regional Water Supply Planning Process, Seattle, WA

Technical Memorandum #2: Methodology for Downscaling Meteorological Data for Evaluating Climate Change

Polebitski, A., M.W. Wiley, and R.N. Palmer. 2007. Technical Memorandum #2: Methodology for Downscaling Meteorological Data for Evaluating Climate Change. A report prepared by the Climate Change Technical Subcommittee of the Regional Water Supply Planning Process, Seattle, WA.

Sound Science: Synthesizing Ecological and Socioeconomic Information about the Puget Sound Ecosystem

Ruckelshaus, M.H., and M. McClure. (Editors) 2007. Sound Science: Synthesizing Ecological and Socioeconomic Information about the Puget Sound Ecosystem. Report prepared in cooperation with the Sound Science collaborate team. U.S. Dept. of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmostpheric Administration (NMFS), Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, Washington.

Review of scenario selection and downscaling methods for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology in the United States Pacific Northwest

Salathé, E.P., P.W. Mote, and M.W. Wiley. 2007. Review of scenario selection and downscaling methods for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology in the United States Pacific Northwest. International Journal of Climatology 27(12): 1611-1621, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1540.

Water, adaptation, and property rights on the Snake and Klamath Rivers

Slaughter, R., and J.D. Wiener. 2007. Water, adaptation, and property rights on the Snake and Klamath Rivers. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 43(2):308-21. DOI: 10.1111 / j.1752-1688.2007.00024.x.

Simulation of Subantartic mode and Antarctic intermediate waters in climate models

Sloyan, B.M., and I.V. Kamenkovich. 2007. Simulation of Subantartic mode and Antarctic intermediate waters in climate models. Journal of Climate 20(20): 5061-5080.

Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments

Snover, A.K., L.C. Whitely Binder, J. Lopez, E. Willmott, J.E. Kay, D. Howell, and J. Simmonds. 2007. Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments. University of Washington Climate Impacts Group and King County, Washington, in association with and published by ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability, Oakland, CA.

Assessing regional vulnerability by operationalizing the concept of adaptive capacity in the Pacific Northwest

Trask, B. 2007. Assessing regional vulnerability by operationalizing the concept of adaptive capacity in the Pacific Northwest. M.M.A. thesis, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle.

Observations: Surface and atmospheric climate change

Trenberth, K.E., P.D. Jones, P. Ambenje, R. Bojariu, D. Easterling, A. Klein Tank, D. Parker, F. Rahimzadeh, J.A. Renwick, M. Rusticucci, B. Soden, and P. Zhai. 2007. Observations: Surface and atmospheric climate change. Chapter 3 in S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. (Contributing author: Mote)

2006

The relationship between Pacific hake (Merluccius productus) distribution and poleward subsurface flow in the California Current System

Agostini, V.N., R.C. Francis, A.B. Hollowed, S.D. Pierce, C. Wilson, and A.N. Hendrix. 2006. The relationship between Pacific hake (Merluccius productus) distribution and poleward subsurface flow in the California Current System. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 63:2648-2659.

Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States

Andreadis, K.M., and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2006. Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L10403, doi:10.1029/2006GL025711.

ENSO's effect on Alaska during opposite phases of the Arctic Oscillation

Bond, N., and D.E. Harrison. 2006. ENSO's effect on Alaska during opposite phases of the Arctic Oscillation. International Journal of Climatology 26(13): 1821-1841.

Summertime subtropical sea surface temperature variability

Chiodi, A.M., and D.E. Harrison. 2006. Summertime subtropical sea surface temperature variability. Geophysical Research Letters 33(8), L08601, doi:10.1029/2005GL024524, 2006.

Considering ecosystem-based fisheries management in the California Current

Field, J.C., and R.C. Francis. 2006. Considering ecosystem-based fisheries management in the California Current. Marine Policy 30:552-562.

Top down modeling and bottom up dynamics: Linking a fisheries based ecosystem model with climate hypotheses in the Northern California Current

Field, J.C., R.C. Francis, and K Aydin. 2006. Top down modeling and bottom up dynamics: Linking a fisheries based ecosystem model with climate hypotheses in the Northern California Current. Progress in Oceanography 68(2-4): 238-270, doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2006.02.010.

Hydrologic implications of 20th century warming and climate variability in the western U.S

Hamlet, A.F. 2006. Hydrologic implications of 20th century warming and climate variability in the western U.S. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Washington, Seattle.

Decadal-scale interactions of humans and the environment

Hibbard, K.A., P.J. Crutzen, E.F. Lambin, D.M. Liverman, N.J. Mantua, J.R. McNeill, B. Messerli, and W. Steffen. 2006. Decadal-scale interactions of humans and the environment. In Costanza, R., L.J. Graumlich, and W. Steffen (eds.), Sustainability or Collapse? An Integrated History and Future of People on Earth. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

Spatial and temporal variability in forest growth in the Olympic Mountains, Washington: Sensitivity to climatic variability

Holman, M.L., and D.L. Peterson. 2006. Spatial and temporal variability in forest growth in the Olympic Mountains, Washington: Sensitivity to climatic variability. Canadian Journal of Forest Resources 36:92-104.

Optimized flood control in the Columbia River Basin for a global warming scenario

Lee, S.Y., A.F. Hamlet, C.J. Fitzgerald, S.J. Burges, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2006. Optimized flood control in the Columbia River Basin for a global warming scenario. In D. Zimbelman and W.C. Loehlein (eds.), Operating Reservoirs in Changing Conditions, ASCE conference proceedings, Sacramento, CA, August 14-16, 2006, Reston, Virginia: American Society of Civil Engineers.

Climate impacts to forest ecosystem processes: Douglas-fir growth in northwestern U.S. mountain landscapes and area burned by wildfire in western U.S. ecoprovinces

Littell, J.S. 2006. Climate impacts to forest ecosystem processes: Douglas-fir growth in northwestern U.S. mountain landscapes and area burned by wildfire in western U.S. ecoprovinces. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Washington, Seattle.

A decadal chronology of 20th-century changes in Earth's natural systems

Mantua, N.J. 2006. A decadal chronology of 20th-century changes in Earth's natural systems. In Costanza, R., L.J. Graumlich, and W. Steffen (eds.), Sustainability or Collapse? An Integrated History and Future of People on Earth. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.

Use of satellite data for streamflow and reservoir storage forecasts in the Snake River Basin, ID

McGuire, M., A.W. Wood, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2006. Use of satellite data for streamflow and reservoir storage forecasts in the Snake River Basin, ID. J. Water Res. Planning and Mgt, ASCE, 132(2):97-110.

Using neutral models to identify constraints on low-severity fire regimes

McKenzie, D., A.E. Hessl, and L-K.B. Kellogg. 2006. Using neutral models to identify constraints on low-severity fire regimes. Landscape Ecology 21:139-152.

How will climatic change affect air quality in parks and wilderness?

McKenzie, D., S. O'Neill, N. Larkin, and R.A. Norheim. 2006. How will climatic change affect air quality in parks and wilderness?. In D. Harmon (ed.), Proceedings of the George Wright Society Annual Meeting Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: The George Wright Society.

Integrating models to predict regional haze from wildland fire

McKenzie, D., S. O'Neill, N. Larkin, and R.A. Norheim. 2006. Integrating models to predict regional haze from wildland fire. Ecological Modelling 199:278-288.

Simulating regional haze from wildland fire emissions in the western USA

McKenzie, D., S. O'Neill, N. Larkin, and R.A. Norheim. 2006. Simulating regional haze from wildland fire emissions in the western USA. pages 128-129. In M. Price (ed.), Global Change in Mountain Regions, Sapiens Publishing, Duncow, UK.

An approach to designing a National Climate Service

Miles, E.L., A.K. Snover, L.C. Whitely Binder, E.S. Sarachik, P.W. Mote, and N.J. Mantua. 2006. An approach to designing a National Climate Service. Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences 103(52):19616–19623.

Climate-driven variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America

Mote, P.W. 2006. Climate-driven variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America. Journal of Climate 19(23): 6209-6220.

Energy-relevant Impacts of Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest

Mote, P.W., E.P. Salathé, and C. Peacock. 2006. Energy-relevant Impacts of Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest. Report prepared for Portland General Electric by the Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle. 19 pp.

Spatial variability in forest growth – climate relationships in the Olympic Mountains, Washington

Nakawatase, J.M., and D.L. Peterson. 2006. Spatial variability in forest growth – climate relationships in the Olympic Mountains, Washington. Canadian Journal of Forest Resources 36:77-91.

Climate Change Building Blocks

Palmer, R.N., M.W. Wiley, A. Polebitski, B. Enfield, K. King, C. O'Neill, and L. Traynham. 2006. Climate Change Building Blocks. A report prepared by the Climate Change Technical Subcommittee of the Regional Water Supply Planning Process, Seattle, WA.

Influences of a shift in North Pacific storm tracks on western North American precipitation under global warming

Salathé, E.P. 2006. Influences of a shift in North Pacific storm tracks on western North American precipitation under global warming. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L19820, doi:10.1029/2006GL026882, 2006.

Delayed coastal upwelling along the U.S. West Coast during 2005: An historical perspective

Schwing, F.B., N.A. Bond, S.J. Bograd, T.P. Mitchell, M.A. Alexander, and N.J. Mantua. 2006. Delayed coastal upwelling along the U.S. West Coast during 2005: An historical perspective. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L22S01, doi:10.1029/2006GL026911.

Using climate forecasts for drought water management

Steinemann, A.C. 2006. Using climate forecasts for drought water management. Journal of Applied Meteorology 45(10): 1353-1361.

Developing multiple indicators and triggers for drought plans

Steinemann, A.C., and L.F.N. Cavalcanti. 2006. Developing multiple indicators and triggers for drought plans. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 132(3):164-174.

Response of western mountain ecosystems to climatic variability and change: the Western Mountain Initiative.

Stephenson, N., D.L. Peterson, D. Fagre, C.D. Allen, D. McKenzie, J.S. Baron, and K. O'Brian. 2006. Response of western mountain ecosystems to climatic variability and change: the Western Mountain Initiative.. Park Science 24:24-29.

Bottom-up forcing and the decline of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska: Assessing the ocean climate hypothesis

Trites, A.W., A.J. Miller, H.D.G. Maschner, M.A. Alexander, S.J. Bograd, J.A. Calder, A. Capotondi, K.O. Coyle, E. Di Lorenzo, B.P. Finney, E.J. Gregr, C.E. Grosch, S.R. Hare, A. Hunt, J. Jahncke, N.B. Kachel, H.J. Kim, C. Ladd, N.J. Mantua, W. Marzban, W. Maslowski, R. Mendelssohn, D.J. Neilson, S.R. Okkonen, J.E. Overland, K.L. Reedy-Maschner, T.C. Royer, F.B. Schwing, J.X.L. Wang, and A.J. Winship. 2006. Bottom-up forcing and the decline of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska: Assessing the ocean climate hypothesis. Fisheries Oceanography 16(1): 46-67.

USACE foundation study on climate variability planning and adaptation

Vaddey, S.V., A.F. Hamlet, and K.D. White. 2006. USACE foundation study on climate variability planning and adaptation. In Proceedings of American Water Resources Association Summer Specialty Conference: Adaptive Management of Water Resources, Missoula, MT, Jun 26-28, 2006, Middleburg, Virginia: American Water Resources Association.

The role of climate forecasts in western U.S. power planning

Voisin, N., A.F. Hamlet, L.P. Graham, D.W. Pierce, T.P. Barnett, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2006. The role of climate forecasts in western U.S. power planning. Journal of Applied Meteorology 45(5):653-673.

Integrating climate impacts in water resource planning and management

White, K.D., S.V. Vaddey, A.F. Hamlet, S.J. Cohen, D. Neilsen, and W. Taylor. 2006. Integrating climate impacts in water resource planning and management. In M. Davies (ed.) and J.E. Zurfelt, Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Cold Regions Engineering, Current Practices in Cold Regions Engineering, Orono, Maine, July 23-26, 2006, Reston, Virginia: American Society of Civil Engineering.

Climate change and watershed planning in Washington State

Whitely Binder, L.C. 2006. Climate change and watershed planning in Washington State. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 42(4):915-926.

Estimating emissions from fires in North America for air quality modeling

Wiedinmyer, C., B. Quayle, C. Geron, A. Belote, D. McKenzie, X. Zhang, S. O'Neill, and K.K. Wynne. 2006. Estimating emissions from fires in North America for air quality modeling. Atmospheric Environment 40(19):3419-3432.

A testbed for new seasonal hydrologic forecasting approaches in the western U.S.

Wood, A.W., and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2006. A testbed for new seasonal hydrologic forecasting approaches in the western U.S.. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 87(12), 1699-1712, doi:10.1175/BAMS-87-12-1699.

2005

Climate, ecology and productivity of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) and hake (Merluccius productus)

Agostini, V.N. 2005. Climate, ecology and productivity of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) and hake (Merluccius productus). Ph.D. dissertation, School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle.

Relationships between the irrigation-pumping electrical loads and the local climate in Climate Division 9, Idaho

Alfaro, E., D. Pierce, A.C. Steinemann, and A. Gershunov. 2005. Relationships between the irrigation-pumping electrical loads and the local climate in Climate Division 9, Idaho. Applied Meteorology 44(12):1972-1978.

Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications

Burkett, V.R., D.A. Wilcox, R. Stottlemyer, W. Barrow, D. Fagre, J.S. Baron, J. Price, J.L. Nielsen, C.D. Allen, D.L. Peterson, G. Ruggerone, and T. Doyle. 2005. Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications. Ecological Complexity 2:357–394.

Fine-scale variability in growth-climate relationships of Douglas-fir, North Cascade Range, Washington

Case, M.J., and D.L. Peterson. 2005. Fine-scale variability in growth-climate relationships of Douglas-fir, North Cascade Range, Washington. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 35: 2743-2755.

Climate Impacts on Washington's Hydropower, Water Supply, Forests, Fish, and Agriculture

Casola, J.H., J.E. Kay, A.K. Snover, R.A. Norheim, L.C. Whitely Binder, and Climate Impacts Group. 2005. Climate Impacts on Washington's Hydropower, Water Supply, Forests, Fish, and Agriculture. A report prepared for King County (Washington) by the Climate Impacts Group (Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle).

Regeneration and understory response to harvest in subalpine forests of the North Cascade Range, Washington

Elman, E, and D.L. Peterson. 2005. Regeneration and understory response to harvest in subalpine forests of the North Cascade Range, Washington. Journal of Ecosystems and Management 6(1): 33-50.

Atmospheric, climatic and ecological controls on extreme wildfire years in the northwestern United States

Gedalof, Z.M., D.L. Peterson, and N.J. Mantua. 2005. Atmospheric, climatic and ecological controls on extreme wildfire years in the northwestern United States. Ecological Applications 15(1):154-174.

Production of temporally consistent gridded precipitation and temperature fields for the continental U.S.

Hamlet, A.F., and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2005. Production of temporally consistent gridded precipitation and temperature fields for the continental U.S.. Journal of Hydrometeorology 6(3):330-336.

Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on snowpack trends in the western United States

Hamlet, A.F., P.W. Mote, M. Clark, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2005. Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on snowpack trends in the western United States. Journal of Climate 18(21): 4545-4561.

The role of daily surface forcing in setting the temperature and mixed layer structure of the Southern Ocean

Kamenkovich, I.V. 2005. The role of daily surface forcing in setting the temperature and mixed layer structure of the Southern Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research 101, C07006, doi:10.1029/2004JC002610.

"Agriculture Breakout Session"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Agriculture Breakout Session". Fact sheet prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Climate Change Policy Questions"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Climate Change Policy Questions". Fact sheet prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Climate Change Primers"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Climate Change Primers". Fact sheets prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Climate Impacts Science Primer"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Climate Impacts Science Primer". Fact sheet prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Coasts Breakout Session"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Coasts Breakout Session". Fact sheet prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Fish and Shellfish Breakout Session"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Fish and Shellfish Breakout Session". Fact sheet prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Forestry Breakout Session"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Forestry Breakout Session". Fact sheet prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Global Climate Change Primer"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Global Climate Change Primer". Fact sheet prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Hydropower Breakout Session"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Hydropower Breakout Session". Fact sheet prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"King County Sector Breakout Fact Sheets"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, A.K. Snover, and Climate Impacts Group. 2005. "King County Sector Breakout Fact Sheets". Fact sheets prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Municipal/Industrial Water Breakout Session"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Municipal/Industrial Water Breakout Session". Fact sheet prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Regional Climate Change Primer"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Regional Climate Change Primer". Fact sheet prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Stormwater/Floods Breakout Session"

Kay, J.E., J.H. Casola, and A.K. Snover. 2005. "Stormwater/Floods Breakout Session". Fact sheet prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

Global seasonal temperature and precipitation anomalies during El Niño autumn and winter

Larkin, N.K., and D.E. Harrison. 2005. Global seasonal temperature and precipitation anomalies during El Niño autumn and winter. Geophysical Research Letters 32(16), L16705, doi:10.1029/2005GL022860, 2005.

On the definition of El Niño and associated seasonal average U.S. weather anomalies

Larkin, N.K., and D.E. Harrison. 2005. On the definition of El Niño and associated seasonal average U.S. weather anomalies. Geophysical Research Letters 32(13), L13705, doi:10.1029/2005GL022738, 2005.

Implications of 2005 Climate Change Scenarios for Pacific Northwest Hydrologic Studies

Lettenmaier, D.P., M.W. Wiley, A.F. Hamlet, and R.N. Palmer. 2005. Implications of 2005 Climate Change Scenarios for Pacific Northwest Hydrologic Studies. A report prepared for King County (Washington) by the Climate Impacts Group (Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle).

Effects of climate variability and change on mountain water resources in the Western U.S

Leung, L.R. 2005. Effects of climate variability and change on mountain water resources in the Western U.S. pp. 355-366. In U.M. Huber, H.K.M. Bugmann, and M.A. Reasoner (eds.), Global Change and Mountain Regions: A State of Knowledge Overview, Springer, Dordrecht.

Hydrologic response to climate variability, climate change, and climate extreme in the U.S.: Climate model evaluation and projections

Leung, L.R., and Y. Qian. 2005. Hydrologic response to climate variability, climate change, and climate extreme in the U.S.: Climate model evaluation and projections. pp. 37-44. In Wagener, T. et al. (eds), Regional Hydrological Impacts of Climatic Change - Impact Assessment and Decision Making, IAHS Publication 295.

A method for estimating vulnerability of Douglas-fir growth to climate change in the northwestern U.S.

Littell, J.S., and D.L. Peterson. 2005. A method for estimating vulnerability of Douglas-fir growth to climate change in the northwestern U.S.. Forestry Chronicle 81(3):369-374.

Upscaling for a better understanding of climate links to ecosystems

Mantua, N.J. 2005. Upscaling for a better understanding of climate links to ecosystems. PICES Press 13(1): 12-14.

Wildfire in the West: A look into a greenhouse world

McKenzie, D., and D.L. Peterson. 2005. Wildfire in the West: A look into a greenhouse world. pp. 8-12. In Watershed Management Council Networker, University of Idaho, Boise, ID.

Effects of a warmer climate on stress complexes in forest of western North America.

McKenzie, D., D.L. Peterson, and J.S. Littell. 2005. Effects of a warmer climate on stress complexes in forest of western North America.. EOS Trans. AGU 86(52); Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract GC32A.

Watershed initiatives in the Skagit River and Tillamook Bay Watersheds: An exploratory analysis of planning, implementation, and integration

Morlock, S.M. 2005. Watershed initiatives in the Skagit River and Tillamook Bay Watersheds: An exploratory analysis of planning, implementation, and integration. M.S. thesis, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle.

Declining mountain snowpack in western North America

Mote, P.W., A.F. Hamlet, M. Clark, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2005. Declining mountain snowpack in western North America. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 86(1):39-49.

Variability and trends in mountain snowpacks in western North America

Mote, P.W., A.F. Hamlet, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2005. Variability and trends in mountain snowpacks in western North America. In K. Elder, B. McGurk, and J. Lea (eds.), Proceedings of the Western Snow Conference, April 19-22, 2004, Richmond, British Columbia, pp. 15-22, Soda Springs, CA: Western Snow Conference.

Scenarios of Future Climate for the Pacific Northwest

Mote, P.W., E.P. Salathé, and C. Peacock. 2005. Scenarios of Future Climate for the Pacific Northwest. A report prepared for King County (Washington)'s October 27, 2005 climate change conference "The Future Ain't What It Used to Be: Preparing for Climate Disruption". Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

Uncertain Future: Climate Change and Its Effects on Puget Sound - Foundation Document

Mote, P.W., A.K. Snover, L.C. Whitely Binder, A.F. Hamlet, and N.J. Mantua. 2005. Uncertain Future: Climate Change and Its Effects on Puget Sound - Foundation Document. Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington.

Downscaling simulations of future global climate with application to hydrologic modelling

Salathé, E.P. 2005. Downscaling simulations of future global climate with application to hydrologic modelling. International Journal of Climatology 25:419-436.

Uncertain Future: Climate Change and Its Effects on Puget Sound

Snover, A.K., P.W. Mote, L.C. Whitely Binder, A.F. Hamlet, and N.J. Mantua. 2005. Uncertain Future: Climate Change and Its Effects on Puget Sound. Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington.

Preserving low-frequency climate signals in growth records of geoduck clams (Panopea abrupta)

Strom, A., R.C. Francis, N.J. Mantua, E.L. Miles, and D.L. Peterson. 2005. Preserving low-frequency climate signals in growth records of geoduck clams (Panopea abrupta). Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 228(1-2): 167-178.

A retrospective assessment of National Centers for Environmental Prediction climate model-based ensemble hydrologic forecasting in the western United States

Wood, A.W., A. Kumar, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2005. A retrospective assessment of National Centers for Environmental Prediction climate model-based ensemble hydrologic forecasting in the western United States. Journal of Geophysical Research 110, D04105, doi:10.1029/2004JD004508.

2004

A method for prediction of California summer air surface temperatures

Alfaro, E., A. Gershunov, D. Cayan, A.C. Steinemann, D. Pierce, and T. Barnett. 2004. A method for prediction of California summer air surface temperatures. EOS, Transactions American Geophysical Union 85: 553, 557-558.

A comparison of the incorporation of climate forecasts and other climate information by coastal managers in the Pacific Northwest between 1996 and 2003

Andersen, M.S., E.L. Miles, and D.L. Fluharty. 2004. A comparison of the incorporation of climate forecasts and other climate information by coastal managers in the Pacific Northwest between 1996 and 2003. In Conference Proceedings for The Coastal Society 19th International Conference, Alexandria, Virginia: The Coastal Society.

Proposal to NOAA OGP: CDEP and RISA programs, April 1, 2005-March 31, 2010

Center for Science in the Earth System 2004. Proposal to NOAA OGP: CDEP and RISA programs, April 1, 2005-March 31, 2010. Proposal to the NOAA Office of Global Programs for 2005-2010. Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA.

Impact of climate change on U.S. air quality using multi-scale modeling with the MM5/SMOKE/CMAQ system

Chen, J., J. Avise, J. Vaughan, B. Lamb, C.F. Mass, E.P. Salathé, A. Guenther, C. Wiedinmyer, S. O'Neill, S. Ferguson, N. Larkin, and D. McKenzie. 2004. Impact of climate change on U.S. air quality using multi-scale modeling with the MM5/SMOKE/CMAQ system. In proceedings for Symposium on Planning, Nowcasting, and Forecasting in the Urban Zone, Boston, Massachusetts: American Meteorological Society.

Boundaries of open marine ecosystems: An application to the Pribilof archipelago, southeast Bering Sea

Ciannelli, L., B.W. Robson, R.C. Francis, K Aydin, and R.D. Brodeur. 2004. Boundaries of open marine ecosystems: An application to the Pribilof archipelago, southeast Bering Sea. Ecological Applications 14(3):942-953.

"Forest Biodiversity"

Climate Impacts Group 2004. "Forest Biodiversity". Fact sheet prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Forest Change"

Climate Impacts Group 2004. "Forest Change". Fact sheet prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Forest Fire and Climate"

Climate Impacts Group 2004. "Forest Fire and Climate". Fact sheet prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Forest Growth and Climate Change"

Climate Impacts Group 2004. "Forest Growth and Climate Change". Fact sheet prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Forests and Climate Fact Sheet Series"

Climate Impacts Group 2004. "Forests and Climate Fact Sheet Series". Fact sheets prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

"Impacts of Climate Change on PNW Timber Production"

Climate Impacts Group 2004. "Impacts of Climate Change on PNW Timber Production". Fact sheet prepared by the Climate Impacts Group, Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle.

Overview of Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Climate Impacts Group 2004. Overview of Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Background paper prepared for the West Coast Governors' Climate Change Initiative.

Integrated and cumulative threats to water

Cohen, S.J., R. de Loe, A.F. Hamlet, R. Herrington, L. Mortsch, and D. Shrubsole. 2004. Integrated and cumulative threats to water. Chapter 15 in Threats to Fresh Water Availability in Canada, Environment Canada, NWRI Scientific Assessment Report Series No.3, Burlington, Ontario: National Water Research Institute.

Detecting regime shifts in the ocean: Data considerations

deYoung, B., R. Harris, J. Alheit, G. Beaugrand, N.J. Mantua, and L. Shannon. 2004. Detecting regime shifts in the ocean: Data considerations. Progress in Oceanography 60(2-4):143-164.

Application of ecosystem-based fishery management approaches in the Northern California Current

Field, J.C. 2004. Application of ecosystem-based fishery management approaches in the Northern California Current. Ph.D. dissertation, School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle.

Columbia River flow and drought since 1750

Gedalof, Z.M., D.L. Peterson, and N.J. Mantua. 2004. Columbia River flow and drought since 1750. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 40(6):1579-1592.

Drought and Pacific Decadal Oscillation linked to fire occurrence in the inland Pacific Northwest

Hessl, A.E., D. McKenzie, and R. Schellhaas. 2004. Drought and Pacific Decadal Oscillation linked to fire occurrence in the inland Pacific Northwest. Ecological Applications 14(2): 425-442.

Ecophysiological parameters for Pacific Northwest trees

Hessl, A.E., C Milesi, D.L. Peterson, M. White, and R.E. Keane. 2004. Ecophysiological parameters for Pacific Northwest trees. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report PNW-GTR-618, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, Oregon.

Mechanisms controlling the sensitivity of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation to the parameterization of eddy transports in an ocean GCM

Kamenkovich, I.V., and E.S. Sarachik. 2004. Mechanisms controlling the sensitivity of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation to the parameterization of eddy transports in an ocean GCM. Journal of Physical Oceanography 34:1628-1647.

On reducing errors in temperature and salinity in an ocean model forced by restoring boundary conditions

Kamenkovich, I.V., and E.S. Sarachik. 2004. On reducing errors in temperature and salinity in an ocean model forced by restoring boundary conditions. Journal of Physical Oceanography 34:1856-1869.

Environmental factors influencing freshwater survival and smolt production in two Pacific Northwest coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) populations

Lawson, P.W., E.A. Logerwell, N.J. Mantua, R.C. Francis, and V.N. Agostini. 2004. Environmental factors influencing freshwater survival and smolt production in two Pacific Northwest coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) populations. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 61:360-373.

The role of climate in water resources planning and management

Lettenmaier, D.P. 2004. The role of climate in water resources planning and management. pp. 247-266 in R. Lawford, D. Fort, H. Hartmann, and S. Eden (eds.), Water: Science, Policy, and Management, AGU Press Monograph, 422 pp.

Mid-century ensemble regional climate change scenarios for the Western United States

Leung, L.R., Y. Qian, X. Bian, W.M. Washington, J. Han, and J.O. Roads. 2004. Mid-century ensemble regional climate change scenarios for the Western United States. Climatic Change 62:75-113.

Methods for detecting regime shifts in large marine ecosystems: A review with approaches applied to North Pacific data

Mantua, N.J. 2004. Methods for detecting regime shifts in large marine ecosystems: A review with approaches applied to North Pacific data. Progress in Oceanography 60(2-4):165-182.

Natural climate insurance for Pacific Northwest salmon and salmon fisheries: Finding our way through the entangled bank

Mantua, N.J., and R.C. Francis. 2004. Natural climate insurance for Pacific Northwest salmon and salmon fisheries: Finding our way through the entangled bank. pp. 127-140, in E.E. Knudsen and D. MacDonald (eds), Fish in our Future? Perspectives on Fisheries Sustainability. A special publication of the American Fisheries Society.

Variability and predictability of North American runoff

Maurer, E.P., D.P. Lettenmaier, and N.J. Mantua. 2004. Variability and predictability of North American runoff. Water Resources Research 40, W09306, doi:10.1029/2003WR002789.

Climatic change, wildfire, and conservation

McKenzie, D., Z.M. Gedalof, D.L. Peterson, and P.W. Mote. 2004. Climatic change, wildfire, and conservation. Conservation Biology 18(4):890-902.

Fire and Climatic Variability in the Inland Pacific Northwest: Integrating Science and Management

McKenzie, D., A.E. Hessl, D.L. Peterson, J.K. Agee, J.F. Lehmkuhl, L-K.B. Kellogg, and J. Kernan. 2004. Fire and Climatic Variability in the Inland Pacific Northwest: Integrating Science and Management. Final report to the Joint Fire Science Program on Project #01-1-6-01, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 44 pp.

Empirical approaches to modeling wildland fire in the Pacific Northwest: Methods and applications to landscape simulations

McKenzie, D., S.J. Prichard, A.E. Hessl, and D.L. Peterson. 2004. Empirical approaches to modeling wildland fire in the Pacific Northwest: Methods and applications to landscape simulations. Chapter 7 in A.J. Perera and L. Buse (eds.), Emulating Natural Forest Landscape Disturbances New York, NY: Columbia University Press.

Beyond the Kyoto/Marrakesh Protocol: Options and strategies

Miles, E.L. 2004. Beyond the Kyoto/Marrakesh Protocol: Options and strategies. In Peterson, D.L. and J.L. Innes (eds), Climatic Change, Carbon, and Forestry in Northwestern North America, General Technical Report GTR-PNW-614, pp. 23-33, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, Oregon.

Designing efficient observing networks for ENSO prediction

Morss, R., and D.S. Battisti. 2004. Designing efficient observing networks for ENSO prediction. Journal of Climate 17: 3074-3089.

Evaluating observing system requirements for ENSO prediction: Experiments with an intermediate coupled model

Morss, R., and D.S. Battisti. 2004. Evaluating observing system requirements for ENSO prediction: Experiments with an intermediate coupled model. Journal of Climate 17: 3057-3073.

Declines in snow water equivalent in the Pacific Northwest and their climatic causes

Mote, P.W. 2004. Declines in snow water equivalent in the Pacific Northwest and their climatic causes. In B. McGurk (ed.), Proceedings of the Western Snow Conference, April 20-24, 2003, Scottsdale, Arizona., pp. 77-83, Soda Springs, CA: Western Snow Conference.

How and why is Northwest climate changing?

Mote, P.W. 2004. How and why is Northwest climate changing?. pp. 11-22 in Peterson, D.L. and J.L. Innes (eds.), Climate Change, Carbon, and Forestry in Northwestern North America. General technical report for the USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, Oregon.

Variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America

Mote, P.W., A.F. Hamlet, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2004. Variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America. In F. Wagner (ed.), Proceedings of the American Association for the Advancement of Science Pacific Division 85th Annual Meeting, Ashland, Oregon: American Association for the Advancement of Science Pacific Division.

The Impacts of Climate Change on the Tualatin River Basin Water Supply: An Investigation into Projected Hydrologic and Management Impacts

Palmer, R.N., E. Clancy, N.T. VanRheenen, and M.W. Wiley. 2004. The Impacts of Climate Change on the Tualatin River Basin Water Supply: An Investigation into Projected Hydrologic and Management Impacts. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle. 91 pp.

Determining the skill of meteorological and hydrological forecasts in the Pacific Northwest

Palmer, R.N., and M. Miller. 2004. Determining the skill of meteorological and hydrological forecasts in the Pacific Northwest. In Proceedings of ASCE's 2004 World Water and Environmental Resources Congress, Salt Lake City, Utah, June, 2004.

Mitigating the effects of climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River basin

Payne, J.T., A.W. Wood, A.F. Hamlet, R.N. Palmer, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2004. Mitigating the effects of climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River basin. Climatic Change 62(1-3):233-256.

Climatic Change, Carbon, and Forestry in Northwestern North America

Peterson, D.L., and J.L. Innes. (Editors) 2004. Climatic Change, Carbon, and Forestry in Northwestern North America. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report GTR-PNW-614. Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, OR.

A simplified linear framework for interpreting patterns of Northern Hemisphere wintertime climate variability

Quadrelli, R., and J.M. Wallace. 2004. A simplified linear framework for interpreting patterns of Northern Hemisphere wintertime climate variability. Journal of Climate 17(19):3728-3744.

Varied expressions of the hemispheric circulation observed in association with contrasting polarities of prescribed patterns of variability

Quadrelli, R., and J.M. Wallace. 2004. Varied expressions of the hemispheric circulation observed in association with contrasting polarities of prescribed patterns of variability. Journal of Climate 17(21):4245-4253.

Determining the skill of meteorological and hydrological forecasts in the Pacific Northwest

Ryu, J.H., R.N. Palmer, S. Jeong, and J. Lee. 2004. Determining the skill of meteorological and hydrological forecasts in the Pacific Northwest. In Proceedings of ASCE's 2004 World Water and Environmental Resources Congress, Salt Lake City, Utah, June, 2004.

Projecting climate change in mesoscale river basins

Salathé, E.P. 2004. Projecting climate change in mesoscale river basins. In proceedings for the 15th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations, Boston, Massachusetts: American Meteorological Society.

Institutional history of the Snake River, 1850-2004

Slaughter, R. 2004. Institutional history of the Snake River, 1850-2004. Background paper prepared for the Climate Impacts Group.

North Pacific climate recorded in growth rings of geoduck clams: A new tool for paleoenvironmental reconstruction

Strom, A., R.C. Francis, N.J. Mantua, E.L. Miles, and D.L. Peterson. 2004. North Pacific climate recorded in growth rings of geoduck clams: A new tool for paleoenvironmental reconstruction. Geophysical Research Letters 31, doi: 10.1029/2004GL019440, 2004.

Incorporating long-lead climate forecasts into risk-based management and decision analysis: A case for the Snake River Basin

VanRheenen, N.T., R.N. Palmer, D.P. Lettenmaier, and A.F. Hamlet. 2004. Incorporating long-lead climate forecasts into risk-based management and decision analysis: A case for the Snake River Basin. In Proceedings of ASCE's 2004 World Water and Environmental Resources Congress, Salt Lake City, Utah, June, 2004.

Potential implications of PCM climate change scenarios for Sacramento - San Joaquin River Basin hydrology and water resources

VanRheenen, N.T., A.W. Wood, R.N. Palmer, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2004. Potential implications of PCM climate change scenarios for Sacramento - San Joaquin River Basin hydrology and water resources. Climatic Change 62(1-3): 257-281.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and northern high latitude wintertime surface air temperatures

Vecchi, G., and N. Bond. 2004. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and northern high latitude wintertime surface air temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters 31, doi: 10.1029/2003GL018645.

Interannual Indian rainfall variability and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies

Vecchi, G., and D.E. Harrison. 2004. Interannual Indian rainfall variability and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies. pages 247-260 in C. Wang, S.-P. Xie, and J.A. Carton (eds.) Earth Climate: The Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction, American Geophysical Union, Geophysical Monograph 147, Washington D.C..

Analysis techniques to incorporate climate change information into Seattle's long range water supply planning

Wiley, M.W. 2004. Analysis techniques to incorporate climate change information into Seattle's long range water supply planning. M.S.C.E. thesis, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle.

Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs

Wood, A.W., L.R. Leung, V. Sridhar, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2004. Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs. Climatic Change 62:189-216.

2003

The influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on precipitation in Oregon and Washington

Bond, N., and G. Vecchi. 2003. The influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on precipitation in Oregon and Washington. Weather and Forecasting 18:600-613.

Airflow and precipitation fields within deep alpine valleys observed by airborne Doppler radar

Bousquet, O., and B.F. Smull. 2003. Airflow and precipitation fields within deep alpine valleys observed by airborne Doppler radar. Journal of Applied Meteorology 42(10):1497-1513.

Observations and impacts of upstream orographic blocking during a widespread orographic precipitation event

Bousquet, O., and B.F. Smull. 2003. Observations and impacts of upstream orographic blocking during a widespread orographic precipitation event. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 129:391-410.

The impact of daily changes in the Pacific North American pattern on the occurrence of extreme weather events

Brown, C.A. 2003. The impact of daily changes in the Pacific North American pattern on the occurrence of extreme weather events. M.S. thesis, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle.

Connecting Climate and Society

Climate Impacts Group 2003. Connecting Climate and Society. Brochure. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle. 8 pp.

Sources of climate variability in river ecosystems

Edmonds, R.L., R.C. Francis, N.J. Mantua, and D.L. Peterson. 2003. Sources of climate variability in river ecosystems. Chapter 2 in R.C. Wissmar and P.A. Bisson (eds), Strategies for Restoring River Ecosystems: Sources of Variability and Uncertainty in Natural and Managed Systems. American Fisheries Society, Bethesda, Maryland. 276pp.

Taking the pulse of mountains: Ecosystem responses to climatic variability

Fagre, D.B., D.L. Peterson, and A.E. Hessl. 2003. Taking the pulse of mountains: Ecosystem responses to climatic variability. Climatic Change 59: 263-282.

A web of small tensions

Climatic influences on salmon populations in the Northeast Pacific

Francis, R.C., and N.J. Mantua. 2003. Climatic influences on salmon populations in the Northeast Pacific. pp. 37-67. In A.D. MacCall and T.C. Wainwright (eds.). Assessing Extinction Risk for West Coast Salmon. U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA Technical Memo, NMFS-NWFSC-56, 198 pp.

Assessing the impact of climate variability and change on regional water resources: The implications for stakeholders

Gamble, J.L., J. Furlow, A.K. Snover, A.F. Hamlet, B.J. Morehouse, H. Hartmann, and T. Pagano. 2003. Assessing the impact of climate variability and change on regional water resources: The implications for stakeholders. pp. 341-368. In R. Lawford, D. Fort, H. Hartmann, and S. Eden, Water: Science, Policy, and Management, Water Resources Monograph Series Vol. 16, Washington, D.C.: American Geophysical Union.

The Second Report on the Adequacy of the Global Observing Systems for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC

Global Climate Observing System 2003. The Second Report on the Adequacy of the Global Observing Systems for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC. GCOS Report #82, 73 pp., World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland. (Contributing member: Harrison)

The role of transboundary agreements in the Columbia River Basin: An integrated assessment in the context of historic development, climate, and evolving water policy

Hamlet, A.F. 2003. The role of transboundary agreements in the Columbia River Basin: An integrated assessment in the context of historic development, climate, and evolving water policy. pp. 263-289. In H. Diaz and B. Morehouse (eds), Climate, Water, and Transboundary Challenges in the Americas. Dordrecht/Boston/London: Kluwer Press.

Ocean heat uptake in transient climate change: Mechanisms and uncertainty due to isopycnal diffusivity

Huang, B., P.H. Stone, A Sokolov, and I.V. Kamenkovich. 2003. Ocean heat uptake in transient climate change: Mechanisms and uncertainty due to isopycnal diffusivity. Journal of Climate 16:3344-3356.

The deep-ocean heat uptake of transient climate change

Huang, B., P.H. Stone, A Sokolov, and I.V. Kamenkovich. 2003. The deep-ocean heat uptake of transient climate change. Journal of Climate 16:1352-1363.

Feedbacks affecting the response of the thermohaline circulation to increasing CO2. A study with a model of intermediate complexity

Kamenkovich, I.V., A Sokolov, and P.H. Stone. 2003. Feedbacks affecting the response of the thermohaline circulation to increasing CO2. A study with a model of intermediate complexity. Climate Dynamics 21(2):119-130

Improving water resources system performance through long-range climate forecasts: The Pacific Northwest experience

Lettenmaier, D.P., and A.F. Hamlet. 2003. Improving water resources system performance through long-range climate forecasts: The Pacific Northwest experience. Chapter 7 in W.M. Lewis Jr. (ed.),Water and Climate in the Western United States, Boulder, Colorado: University Press of Colorado.

Changes in seasonal and extreme hydrologic conditions of the Georgia Basin/Puget Sound in an ensemble regional climate simulation for the mid-century

Leung, L.R., and Y. Qian. 2003. Changes in seasonal and extreme hydrologic conditions of the Georgia Basin/Puget Sound in an ensemble regional climate simulation for the mid-century. Canadian Water Resources Journal. 28:605-631

The sensitivity of precipitation and snowpack simulations to model resolution via nesting in regions of complex terrain

Leung, L.R., and Y. Qian. 2003. The sensitivity of precipitation and snowpack simulations to model resolution via nesting in regions of complex terrain. Journal of Hydrometeorology 4:1025-1043.

Hydroclimate of the western United States based on observations and regional climate simulation of 1981-2000. Part I: Seasonal Statistics

Leung, L.R., Y. Qian, X. Bian, and A. Hunt. 2003. Hydroclimate of the western United States based on observations and regional climate simulation of 1981-2000. Part I: Seasonal Statistics. Journal of Climate 16:1892-1911.

Hydroclimate of the western United States based on observations and regional climate simulation of 1981-2000. Part II: Mesoscale ENSO anomalies

Leung, L.R., Y. Qian, X. Bian, and A. Hunt. 2003. Hydroclimate of the western United States based on observations and regional climate simulation of 1981-2000. Part II: Mesoscale ENSO anomalies. Journal of Climate 16:1912-1928.

Intercomparison of global reanalyses and regional simulations of cold season water budgets in the western United States

Leung, L.R., Y. Qian, J. Han, and J.O. Roads. 2003. Intercomparison of global reanalyses and regional simulations of cold season water budgets in the western United States. Journal of Hydrometeorology 4(6): 1067-1087.

Tracking environmental processes in the coastal zone for understanding and predicting Oregon coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) marine survival

Logerwell, E.A., N.J. Mantua, P.W. Lawson, R.C. Francis, and V.N. Agostini. 2003. Tracking environmental processes in the coastal zone for understanding and predicting Oregon coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) marine survival. Fisheries Oceanography 12(6):554-568.

"We need to get out of the clouds on issue of warming"

Mantua, N.J. 2003. "We need to get out of the clouds on issue of warming". Special commentary written for the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Sunday, May 25, 2003.

Climatic and biophysical controls on conifer species distributions in mountain forests of Washington state, USA

McKenzie, D., D.W. Peterson, D.L. Peterson, and P.E. Thornton. 2003. Climatic and biophysical controls on conifer species distributions in mountain forests of Washington state, USA. Journal of Biogeography 30:1093-1108.

Modelling conifer species distributions in mountain forests of the Pacific Northwest

McKenzie, D., D.W. Peterson, and D.L. Peterson. 2003. Modelling conifer species distributions in mountain forests of the Pacific Northwest. Forestry Chronicle 79:253-258.

Trends in snow water equivalent in the Pacific Northwest and their climatic causes

Mote, P.W. 2003. Trends in snow water equivalent in the Pacific Northwest and their climatic causes. Geophysical Research Letters 30(12) 1601, doi:10.1029/2003GL017258, 2003.

Trends in temperature and precipitation in the Pacific Northwest during the twentieth century

Mote, P.W. 2003. Trends in temperature and precipitation in the Pacific Northwest during the twentieth century. Northwest Science 77(4): 271-282.

Twentieth-century fluctuations and trends in temperature, precipitation, and mountain snowpack in the Georgia Basin-Puget Sound region

Mote, P.W. 2003. Twentieth-century fluctuations and trends in temperature, precipitation, and mountain snowpack in the Georgia Basin-Puget Sound region. Canadian Water Resources Journal 28(4): 567-586.

Preparing for climatic change: The water, salmon, and forests of the Pacific Northwest

Mote, P.W., E.A. Parson, A.F. Hamlet, K.N. Ideker, W.S. Keeton, D.P. Lettenmaier, N.J. Mantua, E.L. Miles, D.W. Peterson, D.L. Peterson, R. Slaughter, and A.K. Snover. 2003. Preparing for climatic change: The water, salmon, and forests of the Pacific Northwest. Climatic Change 61:45-88.

Fuels planning: managing forest structure to reduce fire hazard

Peterson, D.L., J.K. Agee, T. Jain, M. Johnson, D. McKenzie, and E. Reinhardt. 2003. Fuels planning: managing forest structure to reduce fire hazard. Proceedings of the 2nd International Wildland Fire Ecology and Fire Management Congress Boston, Massachusetts: American Meteorological Society

Comparison of various precipitation downscaling methods for the simulation of streamflow in a rainshadow river basin

Salathé, E.P. 2003. Comparison of various precipitation downscaling methods for the simulation of streamflow in a rainshadow river basin. International Journal of Climatology 23(8): 887-901.

Carbon storage and soil properties in late-successional and second-growth subalpine forests in the North Cascade Range, Washington

Sanscrainte, C.L., D.L. Peterson, and S.J. McKay. 2003. Carbon storage and soil properties in late-successional and second-growth subalpine forests in the North Cascade Range, Washington. Northwest Science 77(4):297-307.

Carbon storage in subalpine tree islands, North Cascade Range, Washington

Sanscrainte, C.L., D.L. Peterson, and S.J. McKay. 2003. Carbon storage in subalpine tree islands, North Cascade Range, Washington. Northwest Science 77(3):255-268.

Center for Science in the Earth System: Year One (4/1/02-3/31/03) Progress Report and Year Two Budget Request

Sarachik, E.S. 2003. Center for Science in the Earth System: Year One (4/1/02-3/31/03) Progress Report and Year Two Budget Request. Center for Science in the Earth System, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, Seattle, Washington.

The ocean in climate

Sarachik, E.S. 2003. The ocean in climate. pp. 129-133 In T. Potter and B. Colman (eds.), Handbook of Weather, Climate and Water (Vol 2). Hoboken, New Jersey: Wiley-Interscience.

Decadal variability in the Pacific

Sarachik, E.S., and D. Vimont. 2003. Decadal variability in the Pacific. pp. 125-167, In G. Boffetta, G. Lacorata, G. Visconti, and A. Vulpiani (eds). Chaos in Geophysical Flows, OTTO editore, Torino, Italy.

Climate change scenarios for water planning studies: Pilot applications in the Pacific Northwest

Snover, A.K., A.F. Hamlet, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2003. Climate change scenarios for water planning studies: Pilot applications in the Pacific Northwest. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84(11):1513-1518.

Learning from and adapting to climate variability in the Pacific Northwest

Snover, A.K., E.L. Miles, and A.F. Hamlet. 2003. Learning from and adapting to climate variability in the Pacific Northwest. In Background Papers in Preparation For the "Insights and Tools for Adaptation: Learning from Climate Variability" Workshop, November 18-20, 2003, Washington, D.C., pp. 167-179, Washington, D.C.: NOAA Office of Global Programs.

Airflow within major alpine river valleys under heavy rainfall

Steiner, M., O. Bousquet, R.A. Houze, B.F. Smull, and M. Mancini. 2003. Airflow within major alpine river valleys under heavy rainfall. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 129:411-432.

Climate and fisheries in the Pacific Northwest: Historical perspectives from Geoducks and early explorers

Strom, A. 2003. Climate and fisheries in the Pacific Northwest: Historical perspectives from Geoducks and early explorers. M. Sc. Thesis, School of Aquatic and Fisheries Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle.

Effects of forest policy on landscape pattern of late seral forest of the western Olympic Peninsula, Washington

Tyler, M.W., and D.L. Peterson. 2003. Effects of forest policy on landscape pattern of late seral forest of the western Olympic Peninsula, Washington. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 101:289-306

Evaluating potential climate change impacts on water resource system operations: Case studies of Portland, Oregon and Central Valley, California

VanRheenen, N.T., R.N. Palmer, and M.A. Hahn. 2003. Evaluating potential climate change impacts on water resource system operations: Case studies of Portland, Oregon and Central Valley, California. Water Resources Update 124: 35-50.

Climate change, fish, agriculture, and power: Impacts and implications for future Snake River water resources management

VanRheenen, N.T., R.N. Palmer, A.F. Hamlet, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2003. Climate change, fish, agriculture, and power: Impacts and implications for future Snake River water resources management. In Bizier, P. and P. De Barry (eds.), World Water and Environmental Resources Congress 2003 and Related Symposia: Proceedings of the Congress, June 23-26, 2003, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Reston, Virginia: American Society of Civil Engineers.

On the termination of the 2002-03 El Nino

Vecchi, G., and D.E. Harrison. 2003. On the termination of the 2002-03 El Nino. Geophysical Research Letters 30(18) doi: 10.1029/2003GL017564.

Seasonal footprinting mechanism in the CSIRO general circulation model

Vimont, D., D.S. Battisti, and A.C. Hirst. 2003. Seasonal footprinting mechanism in the CSIRO general circulation model. Journal of Climate 16:2653-67

Seasonal footprinting in the Pacific: Implications for ENSO

Vimont, D., J.M. Wallace, and D.S. Battisti. 2003. Seasonal footprinting in the Pacific: Implications for ENSO. Journal of Climate 16:2668-75.

The Pacific Center of Action of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode: Real or Artifact?

Wallace, J.M., and D.W.J. Thompson. 2003. The Pacific Center of Action of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode: Real or Artifact?. Journal of Climate 15:1987-1991.

Physical forcing and the dynamics of the pelagic ecosystem in the eastern tropical Pacific: simulations with ENSO-scale and global warming climate drivers

Watters, G.M., R.J. Olson, and R.C. Francis. 2003. Physical forcing and the dynamics of the pelagic ecosystem in the eastern tropical Pacific: simulations with ENSO-scale and global warming climate drivers. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 60(9):1161-1175

Statistical precipitation downscaling over the northwestern United States using numerically simulated precipitation as a predictor

Widmann, M., C.S. Bretherton, and E.P. Salathé. 2003. Statistical precipitation downscaling over the northwestern United States using numerically simulated precipitation as a predictor. Journal of Climate 16(5):799-816.

2002

“Ocean triads” in the Mediterranean Sea: Physical mechanisms potentially structuring reproductive habitat suitability (with example application to European anchovy)

Agostini, V.N., and A. Bakun. 2002. “Ocean triads” in the Mediterranean Sea: Physical mechanisms potentially structuring reproductive habitat suitability (with example application to European anchovy). Fisheries Oceanography 11(3):129.

A Large-Scale CO2 Observing Plan: In Situ Oceans and Atmosphere (LSCOP)

Bender, M., S. Doney, R. Feely, I. Fung, N. Gruber, D.E. Harrison, R. Keeling, J.K. Moore, J. Sarmiento, E.S. Sarachik, B. Stephens, T. Takahashi, P. Tans, and R. Wanninkhof. 2002. A Large-Scale CO2 Observing Plan: In Situ Oceans and Atmosphere (LSCOP). 201 pp. NOAA OAR Special Report, NOAA Office of Global Programs, Washington, D.C.

Numerical simulations of a land falling cold front observed during COAST: Rapid evolution and responsible mechanisms

Colle, B.A., B.F. Smull, and M-J. Yang. 2002. Numerical simulations of a land falling cold front observed during COAST: Rapid evolution and responsible mechanisms. Monthly Weather Review 130(8):1945-1966.

Potential impacts of climate variability and change on water quality in south Puget Sound: A management perspective

Engoltz, T. 2002. Potential impacts of climate variability and change on water quality in south Puget Sound: A management perspective. MMA thesis, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle.

Modeling and monitoring ecosystem responses to climate change in three North American mountain ranges

Fagre, D.B., and D.L. Peterson. 2002. Modeling and monitoring ecosystem responses to climate change in three North American mountain ranges. pages 249-259. In C. Körner and E. Spehn (eds.), Global Mountain Biodiversity: Changes and Threats. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.

Climate change and fisheries management in the Northern California Current

Field, J.C., and R.C. Francis. 2002. Climate change and fisheries management in the Northern California Current. In N. McGinn (ed.), Fisheries in a Changing Climate Symposium 32, pp. 245-262, Bethesda, Maryland: American Fisheries Society.

Some thoughts on sustainability and marine conservation

Francis, R.C. 2002. Some thoughts on sustainability and marine conservation. Fisheries 27(1): 18-22.

Links between Pacific basin climatic variability and natural systems of the Pacific Northwest

Gedalof, Z.M. 2002. Links between Pacific basin climatic variability and natural systems of the Pacific Northwest. PhD dissertation, School of Forestry, University of Washington, Seattle.

A multi-century perspective of variability in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation: new insights from tree rings and corals

Gedalof, Z.M., N.J. Mantua, and D.L. Peterson. 2002. A multi-century perspective of variability in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation: new insights from tree rings and corals. Geophysical Research Letters 29(24):2204. doi:10.1029/ 2002GL015824.

Climate change impacts on municipal supplies: When are capital investments justified?

Hahn, M.A., and R.N. Palmer. 2002. Climate change impacts on municipal supplies: When are capital investments justified?. In Proceedings of the ASCE 2002 Conference on Water Resources Planning and Management. Roanoke, Virginia: American Society of Civil Engineers.

Economic value of long-lead streamflow forecasts for Columbia River hydropower

Hamlet, A.F., D.D. Huppert, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2002. Economic value of long-lead streamflow forecasts for Columbia River hydropower. ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 128(2): 91-101.

Cold events: Anti-El Nino?

Harrison, D.E., and N.K. Larkin. 2002. Cold events: Anti-El Nino?. pp. 237-241 In M.H. Glantz (Ed.), Facts and Speculation about La Nina and its Societal Impacts. Tokyo, Japan: United Nations University Press.

Central equatorial Pacific zonal currents I: The Sverdrup balance, nonlinearity and tropical instability waves: Annual mean dynamics

Harrison, D.E., R. Romea, and S. Hankin. 2002. Central equatorial Pacific zonal currents I: The Sverdrup balance, nonlinearity and tropical instability waves: Annual mean dynamics. Journal of Marine Research 59:895-919.

Central equatorial Pacific zonal currents II: The seasonal cycle and the boreal surface eastward surge

Harrison, D.E., R. Romea, and G. Vecchi. 2002. Central equatorial Pacific zonal currents II: The seasonal cycle and the boreal surface eastward surge. Journal of Marine Research 59:921-948.

Applications of climate forecasts in natural resource management: Implications for industry

Huppert, D.D., J.H. Kaje, A.F. Hamlet, E.L. Miles, and A.K. Snover. 2002. Applications of climate forecasts in natural resource management: Implications for industry. The Climate Report 3(2):12-22.

An efficient climate model with a 3D ocean and statistical-dynamical atmosphere

Kamenkovich, I.V., A Sokolov, and P.H. Stone. 2002. An efficient climate model with a 3D ocean and statistical-dynamical atmosphere. Climate Dynamics 19(7):585-598.

ENSO warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) event life cycles: Ocean surface anomaly patterns, their symmetries, asymmetries and implications

Larkin, N.K., and D.E. Harrison. 2002. ENSO warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) event life cycles: Ocean surface anomaly patterns, their symmetries, asymmetries and implications. Journal of Climate 15(10):1118-1140.

La Niña impacts on the Pacific Northwest

Mantua, N.J. 2002. La Niña impacts on the Pacific Northwest. pp. 102-114. In M. Glantz (ed), La Niña and Its Impacts: Facts and Speculation. Tokyo, Japan: United Nations University Press. 271pp.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Mantua, N.J. 2002. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation. pp. 592-594. In M.C. McCracken and J.S. Perry (eds), The Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change, Volume 1, The Earth System: Physical and Chemical Dimension of Global Environmental Change. Chichester, England: John Wiley & Sons.

Making the climate connections: Bridging scales of space and time in the US GLOBEC program

Mantua, N.J., D. Haidvogal, Y. Kushnir, and N. Bond. 2002. Making the climate connections: Bridging scales of space and time in the US GLOBEC program. Oceanography 15(2):75-86.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Mantua, N.J., and S.R. Hare. 2002. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Journal of Oceanography 58(1):35-44.

Uncertainty in scenarios of human-caused climate change

Mantua, N.J., and P.W. Mote. 2002. Uncertainty in scenarios of human-caused climate change. In N. McGinn (ed.), Fisheries in a Changing Climate Symposium 32, pp. 263-272, Bethesda, Maryland: American Fisheries Society.

Global climate change and marine policy: Planning for impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability

Miles, E.L. 2002. Global climate change and marine policy: Planning for impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. In D.M. Johnston and A. Sirivivatnanon (eds.), Ocean Governance and Sustainable Development in the Pacific Region, SEAPOL Inter-Regional Conference, March 21-23, 2001. Bangkok, Thailand: Southeast Asian Progr. On Ocean Law, Policy, and Mangmt.

Causes of climate variability in the Pacific Northwest

Mote, P.W., and N.J. Mantua. 2002. Causes of climate variability in the Pacific Northwest. The Climate Report 3(2):2-6.

Coastal upwelling in a warming future

Mote, P.W., and N.J. Mantua. 2002. Coastal upwelling in a warming future. Geophysical Research Letters 29(23), 2138 doi: 10.1029/2002GL016086.

An integrated, sustained ocean observing system

Nowlin, W.D., N. Smith, D.E. Harrison, C. Koblinski, and G. Needler. 2002. An integrated, sustained ocean observing system. pp. 29-38 In C.J. Koblinsky and N.R. Smith (eds.), Observing Ocean In the 21st Century. Melbourne, Australia: GODAE and Australian Bureau of Meteorology Publishers.

The Impacts of Climate Change on Portland's Water Supply: An Investigation of Potential Hydrologic and Management Impacts on the Bull Run System

Palmer, R.N., and M.A. Hahn. 2002. The Impacts of Climate Change on Portland's Water Supply: An Investigation of Potential Hydrologic and Management Impacts on the Bull Run System. Report prepared for the Portland Water Bureau, University of Washington, Seattle. 139 pp.

Developing drought triggers and drought responses: An application in Georgia

Palmer, R.N., S.L. Kutzing, and A.C. Steinemann. 2002. Developing drought triggers and drought responses: An application in Georgia. In Proceedings of the ASCE's 2002 Conference on Water Resources Planning and Management. Roanoke, Virginia: American Society of Civil Engineers.

Growth responses of subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) to climatic variability in the Pacific Northwest

Peterson, D.W., D.L. Peterson, and G.J. Ettl. 2002. Growth responses of subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) to climatic variability in the Pacific Northwest. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 32(9): 1503-1517.

On the response of sea ice to the Arctic Oscillation

Rigor, I.G., J.M. Wallace, and R.L. Colony. 2002. On the response of sea ice to the Arctic Oscillation. Journal of Climate 15:2648-2663.

Is the Gulf Stream responsible for Europe's mild winters?

Seager, R., D.S. Battisti, J. Yin, N. Naik, N. Gordon, A.C. Clement, and M. Cane. 2002. Is the Gulf Stream responsible for Europe's mild winters?. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 128: 2563-86.

The Climate Impacts Group: Piloting climate services for the Pacific Northwest

Snover, A.K., and Climate Impacts Group. 2002. The Climate Impacts Group: Piloting climate services for the Pacific Northwest. Prepared for the NOAA Climate Prediction Assessment Workshop: Research and Applications on Use and Impacts, Alexandria, Virginia.

Climate impacts on the natural resources of the Pacific Northwest

Snover, A.K., and P.W. Mote. 2002. Climate impacts on the natural resources of the Pacific Northwest. The Climate Report 3(2):7-11.

Stratospheric connection to Northern Hemisphere wintertime weather: Implications for prediction

Thompson, D.W.J., M.P. Baldwin, and J.M. Wallace. 2002. Stratospheric connection to Northern Hemisphere wintertime weather: Implications for prediction. Journal of Climate 15:1421-1428.

Preparing for an uncertain future: Adaptive management strategies and alternative approaches to mitigate the impacts of climate change in California's Central Valley

VanRheenen, N.T., and R.N. Palmer. 2002. Preparing for an uncertain future: Adaptive management strategies and alternative approaches to mitigate the impacts of climate change in California's Central Valley. In Proceedings of the ASCE's 2002 Conference on Water Resources Planning & Management, Roanoke, Virgina: American Society of Civil Engineers.

Southwest monsoon breaks and sub-seasonal sea surface temperature variability in the Bay of Bengal

Vecchi, G., and D.E. Harrison. 2002. Southwest monsoon breaks and sub-seasonal sea surface temperature variability in the Bay of Bengal. Journal of Climate 15:1485-1493.

Pacific interannual and interdecadal equatorial variability in a 1,000 year simulation of the CSIRO coupled General Circulation Model

Vimont, D., D.S. Battisti, and A.C. Hirst. 2002. Pacific interannual and interdecadal equatorial variability in a 1,000 year simulation of the CSIRO coupled General Circulation Model. Journal of Climate 15: 160-178.

Annular modes and climate prediction

Wallace, J.M., and D.W.J. Thompson. 2002. Annular modes and climate prediction. Physics Today 55:28-33.

Senior stakeholders meeting on climate and water policy: Executive and general meeting summaries

Whitely Binder, L.C. 2002. Senior stakeholders meeting on climate and water policy: Executive and general meeting summaries. A report on the March 20, 2002 meeting with senior Pacific Northwest water resource managers. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle.

Watershed planning, climate variability, and climate change: Bringing a global scale issue to the local level

Whitely Binder, L.C. 2002. Watershed planning, climate variability, and climate change: Bringing a global scale issue to the local level. MPA degree project, Evans School of Public Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle.

SST anomalies of ENSO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the equatorial Pacific

Zhang, C., and J. Gottschalck. 2002. SST anomalies of ENSO and the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the equatorial Pacific. Journal of Climate 15:2429-2445.

2001

Space-time modeling of lightning-caused forest fires in the Blue Mountains, Oregon

Avalos, C.D., D.L. Peterson, E. Alvarado, and S.A. Ferguson. 2001. Space-time modeling of lightning-caused forest fires in the Blue Mountains, Oregon. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 31(9):1579-1593.

Seasonal patterns of wind induced upwelling/downwelling in the Mediterranean Sea

Bakun, A., and V.N. Agostini. 2001. Seasonal patterns of wind induced upwelling/downwelling in the Mediterranean Sea. Scientia Marina 65(3):243-257.

Approaching the design of a national climate service: A public sector focus

Balwani, S. 2001. Approaching the design of a national climate service: A public sector focus. MMA thesis, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle.

Climate and Water Policy Workshop: Detailed Summary

Climate Impacts Group 2001. Climate and Water Policy Workshop: Detailed Summary. Climate and Water Policy Workshop, July 16-17, 2001, Stevenson, Washington. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle. 51pp.

Climate and Water Policy Workshop: Executive Summary

Climate Impacts Group 2001. Climate and Water Policy Workshop: Executive Summary. Climate and Water Policy Workshop, July 16-17, 2001, Stevenson, Washington. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle. 21pp.

Genetic variation in subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) in the Olympic Mountains, Washington, USA: Differentiation in response to an elevation gradient

Ettl, G.J., and D.L. Peterson. 2001. Genetic variation in subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) in the Olympic Mountains, Washington, USA: Differentiation in response to an elevation gradient. Silvae Genetica 50:145-253.

Towards a fisheries ecosystem plan for the Northern California Current

Field, J.C., R.C. Francis, and A. Strom. 2001. Towards a fisheries ecosystem plan for the Northern California Current. CalCOFI Report 42: 74-87.

Historical approaches to the northern California Current ecosystem

Francis, R.C., J.C. Field, D. Holmgren, and A. Strom. 2001. Historical approaches to the northern California Current ecosystem. pp. 123-140 in Holm, P., T.D. Smith, and D. Starkey (eds.), The Exploited Seas: New Directions for Marine Environmental History, Research in Maritime History monograph #21. Saint Johns, Newfoundland: Memorial University of Newfoundland.

Dendroclimatic response of mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana) in Pacific North America.

Gedalof, Z.M., and D.J. Smith. 2001. Dendroclimatic response of mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana) in Pacific North America.. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 31(2):322-332.

Interdecadal climate variability and regime-scale shifts in Pacific North America

Gedalof, Z.M., and D.J. Smith. 2001. Interdecadal climate variability and regime-scale shifts in Pacific North America. Geophysical Research Letters 28:1515-1518.

Preliminary analysis of the impacts of climate change on the reliability of the Seattle water supply

Hahn, M.A., R.N. Palmer, P. Storck, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2001. Preliminary analysis of the impacts of climate change on the reliability of the Seattle water supply. In Phelps, D. and G. Sehlke (eds.), Proceedings of the World Water and Environmental Resources Congress, Reston, Virginia: Environmental and Water Resources Institute, American Society of Civil Engineers.

Effects of climate change on water resources in the Pacific Northwest: Impacts and policy implications

Hamlet, A.F. 2001. Effects of climate change on water resources in the Pacific Northwest: Impacts and policy implications. Preparatory White Paper for Climate and Water Policy Meeting, Skamania, Washington, July 2001. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle. 16 pp.

Preparing for climate change in the Pacific Northwest: A discussion of water resources adaptation pathways

Hamlet, A.F. 2001. Preparing for climate change in the Pacific Northwest: A discussion of water resources adaptation pathways. Preparatory White Paper for Climate and Water Policy Meeting, Skamania, Washington, July 2001. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle. 14 pp.

Overview of Columbia basin long-lead streamflow forecasts

Hamlet, A.F., and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2001. Overview of Columbia basin long-lead streamflow forecasts. Conference proceedings paper for the American Water Resources Association, October 1999.

An historical narrative on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, interdecadal climate variability and ecosystem impacts

Hare, S.R., and N.J. Mantua. 2001. An historical narrative on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, interdecadal climate variability and ecosystem impacts. Report of a talk presented at the 20th NE Pacific Pink and Chum Workshop, Seattle, WA, 22 March 2001.

Comments on "Comparison of 1997-98 U.S. temperature and precipitation anomalies to historical ENSO Warm Phases"

Harrison, D.E., and N.K. Larkin. 2001. Comments on "Comparison of 1997-98 U.S. temperature and precipitation anomalies to historical ENSO Warm Phases". Journal of Climate 14:1894-1895.

El Niño and La Niña—Equatorial Pacific thermocline depth and sea surface temperature anomalies, 1986–98

Harrison, D.E., and G. Vecchi. 2001. El Niño and La Niña—Equatorial Pacific thermocline depth and sea surface temperature anomalies, 1986–98. Geophysical Research Letter 28(6):1051–1054, doi: 10.1029/1999GL011307, 2001.

The effects of vertical mixing on the circulation of the AABW in the Atlantic

Kamenkovich, I.V., and P.J. Goodman. 2001. The effects of vertical mixing on the circulation of the AABW in the Atlantic. pp. 217-226 In D. Seidov (ed.), American Geophysical Union Monograph Series.

Tropical Pacific ENSO Cold Events, 1946-1995; SST, SLP and Surface Wind Composite Anomalies

Larkin, N.K., and D.E. Harrison. 2001. Tropical Pacific ENSO Cold Events, 1946-1995; SST, SLP and Surface Wind Composite Anomalies. Journal of Climate 14(19):3904-3931.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Mantua, N.J., and S.R. Hare. 2001. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Journal of Oceanography 58:35-44.

Recent growth in conifer species of western North America: assessing spatial patterns of radial growth trends

McKenzie, D., A.E. Hessl, and D.L. Peterson. 2001. Recent growth in conifer species of western North America: assessing spatial patterns of radial growth trends. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 31:526-538.

The possible effects and management implications of climate variability/change on pinniped-salmonid interactions at low population levels of salmonids

Morimoto, G.E. 2001. The possible effects and management implications of climate variability/change on pinniped-salmonid interactions at low population levels of salmonids. MMA thesis, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle.

Scientific assessment of climate change: Global and regional scales

Mote, P.W. 2001. Scientific assessment of climate change: Global and regional scales. Preparatory White Paper for Climate and Water Policy Meeting, Skamania, Washington, July 2001. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington. 10pp.

Anthropogenic climate change and snow in the Pacific Northwest

Mote, P.W., and A.F. Hamlet. 2001. Anthropogenic climate change and snow in the Pacific Northwest. In K. Elder (ed.), Proceedings of the Western Snow Conference, April 16-19, 2001, Sun Valley, Idaho, pp. 51-52, Portland, OR: Western Snow Conference.

Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Key Questions

National Research Council 2001. Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Key Questions. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. 29pp. (Committee members: Sarachik and Wallace)

Comments on Catalyzing U.S. World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Activities

National Research Council 2001. Comments on Catalyzing U.S. World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Activities. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. 21pp. (Committee member: Sarachik)

Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling

National Research Council 2001. Improving the Effectiveness of U.S. Climate Modeling. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. 128pp. (Committee chair: Sarachik)

The Science of Regional and Global Change

National Research Council 2001. The Science of Regional and Global Change. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. 19pp. (Committee member: Sarachik)

Hydrologic vulnerability of global rivers to climate change

Nijssen, B., G.M. O'Donnell, A.F. Hamlet, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2001. Hydrologic vulnerability of global rivers to climate change. Climatic Change 50(1):143-175.

Potential consequences of climate variability and change for the Pacific Northwest

Parson, E.A. 2001. Potential consequences of climate variability and change for the Pacific Northwest. pp. 247-279, in Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, Report for the US Global Change Research Program, Foundation Report, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 620 pp.

From open to closed canopy: a century of change in a Douglas-fir forest, Orcas Island, Washington

Peterson, D.L., and R.D. Hammer. 2001. From open to closed canopy: a century of change in a Douglas-fir forest, Orcas Island, Washington. Northwest Science 75:262-269.

Mountain hemlock growth responds to climatic variability at annual and decadal scales

Peterson, D.W., and D.L. Peterson. 2001. Mountain hemlock growth responds to climatic variability at annual and decadal scales. Ecology 82(12):3330-3345.

Climate sea surface temperature analysis

Reynolds, R.E., D.E. Harrison, and D. Stokes. 2001. Climate sea surface temperature analysis. pp. 87-101. In C.J. Koblinski and N.R. Smith (eds.), Observing the Ocean In the 21st Century. Melbourne, Australia: GODAE and Australian Bureau of Meteorology Publishers.

Genetic and morphologic variation in Phyllodoce empetriformis and P. glanduliflora (Ericaceae) in Mount Rainier National Park, Washington

Rochefort, R.M., and D.L. Peterson. 2001. Genetic and morphologic variation in Phyllodoce empetriformis and P. glanduliflora (Ericaceae) in Mount Rainier National Park, Washington. Canadian Journal of Botany 79:179-191.

A national climate service: 21st century necessity

Sarachik, E.S. 2001. A national climate service: 21st century necessity. Guest editorial in ENSO Signal 17:5-6.

El Nino/Southern Oscillation

Sarachik, E.S. 2001. El Nino/Southern Oscillation. pp. 340-345, In the Oxford Encyclopedia of Global Change Vol. I, New York, New York: Wiley Publishing.

Is the Gulf stream responsible for Europe's mild winters?

Seager, R., D.S. Battisti, J. Yin, N. Gordon, N. Naik, A.C. Clement, and M. Cane. 2001. Is the Gulf stream responsible for Europe's mild winters?. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 128:2563-2586.

Regional climate impacts of the northern hemisphere annular mode

Thompson, D.W.J., and J.M. Wallace. 2001. Regional climate impacts of the northern hemisphere annular mode. Science 293:85-89.

A linear stochastic dynamical model of ENSO. Part II: Analysis

Thomson, C.J., and D.S. Battisti. 2001. A linear stochastic dynamical model of ENSO. Part II: Analysis. Journal of Climate 14:445-466.

Projected climate change implications for Western U.S. water resources management

VanRheenen, N.T., R.N. Palmer, D.P. Lettenmaier, J.T. Payne, A.F. Hamlet, and A.W. Wood. 2001. Projected climate change implications for Western U.S. water resources management. In Proceedings of the 2001 American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, Washington, D.C.: American Geophysical Union.

Climate change impacts on water supply system management in central California

VanRheenen, N.T., R.N. Palmer, A.W. Wood, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2001. Climate change impacts on water supply system management in central California. In Proceedings of the 2001 American Water Resources Association Annual Water Resources Conference, Middleburg, Virginia: American Water Resources Association.

The effects of climate change on water management strategies and demands in the Central Valley of California

VanRheenen, N.T., A.W. Wood, R.N. Palmer, J.T. Payne, and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2001. The effects of climate change on water management strategies and demands in the Central Valley of California. In Bridging the Gap: Meeting the World's Water and Environmental Resources Challenges, Proceedings of the World Water and Environmental Resources Congress May 20-24, 2001, Orlando, Florida, Reston, VA: American Society of Civil Engineers.

Footprinting: a seasonal link between the midlatitudes and tropics

Vimont, D., D.S. Battisti, and A.C. Hirst. 2001. Footprinting: a seasonal link between the midlatitudes and tropics. Geophysical Research Letters 28:3923-3926.

Thermally driven tropical circulations under Rayleigh friction and Newtonian cooling: Analytic solutions

Wu, Z., E.S. Sarachik, and D.S. Battisti. 2001. Thermally driven tropical circulations under Rayleigh friction and Newtonian cooling: Analytic solutions. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 58:724-741.

The importance of sea surface temperature patterns in simulations of the last glacial maximum climate

Yin, J., and D.S. Battisti. 2001. The importance of sea surface temperature patterns in simulations of the last glacial maximum climate. Journal of Climate 14:565-581.

Intraseasonal perturbations in sea surface temperature of the eastern equatorial Pacific and their association with the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Zhang, C. 2001. Intraseasonal perturbations in sea surface temperature of the eastern equatorial Pacific and their association with the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Journal of Climate 14:1309-1322.

2000

Report 2000: Western Alaska Salmon Disaster

Alexander, V., G. Busch, M. Dahlberg, B. Fadely, D. Flannagan, H. Geiger, J. Helle, R. Hilborn, W. Hines, G. Knapp, N.J. Mantua, K. Myers, J. Passer, D. Rogers, G. Ruggerone, P. Stabeno, and R. Wilmot. 2000. Report 2000: Western Alaska Salmon Disaster. Alaska Fishery Research Bulletin.

Trends in Coho marine survival in relation to the regime concept

Beamish, R., D. Noakes, G. MacFarlance, W.D. Pinnix, R. Sweeting, J. King, and M. Folkes. 2000. Trends in Coho marine survival in relation to the regime concept. Fisheries Oceanography 9(1):114-119.

Generalized inversion of tropical atmosphere-ocean (TAO) data and a coupled model of the tropical Pacific. II: The 1995-96 La Nina and 1997-98 El Nino

Bennett, A.F., B.S. Chua, D.E. Harrison, and M.J. McPhaden. 2000. Generalized inversion of tropical atmosphere-ocean (TAO) data and a coupled model of the tropical Pacific. II: The 1995-96 La Nina and 1997-98 El Nino. Journal of Climate 13:2770-2785.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, air-sea interaction and central North Pacific winter atmospheric regimes

Bond, N., and D.E. Harrison. 2000. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, air-sea interaction and central North Pacific winter atmospheric regimes. Geophysical Research Letter 27(5):731-734.

An interpretation of the results from atmospheric general circulation models forced by the time history of the observed sea surface temperature distribution

Bretherton, C.S., and D.S. Battisti. 2000. An interpretation of the results from atmospheric general circulation models forced by the time history of the observed sea surface temperature distribution. Geophysical Research Letters 27:767-770.

Climate Impacts Research at the University of Washington, 1995-2005

Climate Impacts Group 2000. Climate Impacts Research at the University of Washington, 1995-2005. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle.

Climate change and resource management in the Columbia River Basin

Cohen, S.J., K. Miller, A.F. Hamlet, and W. Avis. 2000. Climate change and resource management in the Columbia River Basin. Water International 25(2): 253-272.

Spatial distribution of tropospheric ozone in western Washington, USA

Cooper, S.M., and D.L. Peterson. 2000. Spatial distribution of tropospheric ozone in western Washington, USA. Environmental Pollution 107:339-347.

Ecosystem dynamics and disturbance in mountain wildernesses: Assessing vulnerability of natural resources to change

Fagre, D.B., and D.L. Peterson. 2000. Ecosystem dynamics and disturbance in mountain wildernesses: Assessing vulnerability of natural resources to change. In D.N. Cole, S.F. McCool, W.T. Borrie, and J. O’Loughlin, Jennifer (comps.), Wilderness Science in a Time of Change Conference - Volume 3: Wilderness as a Place for Scientific Inquiry, May 23–27, 1999, Missoula, MT, USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-15-VOL-3, p. 74-81, Ogden, Utah: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station.

Characterization and Assessment of Economic Systems in the Interior Columbia Basin: Fisheries

Fluharty, D.L. 2000. Characterization and Assessment of Economic Systems in the Interior Columbia Basin: Fisheries. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-451, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, Oregon.

Distribution and variability of water vapour

Gettelman, A., J. Harries, and P.W. Mote. 2000. Distribution and variability of water vapour. Chapter 3, In SPARC Assessment of Water Vapour in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere, D. Kley, J. Russell, and C. Phillips, (eds.), World Climate Research Programme, Paris.

The role of North Atlantic deep water formation in the thermohaline circulation

Goodman, P.J. 2000. The role of North Atlantic deep water formation in the thermohaline circulation. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Washington, Seattle.

The role of North Atlantic deep water formation in the thermohaline circulation

Goodman, P.J. 2000. The role of North Atlantic deep water formation in the thermohaline circulation. Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Washington, Seattle.

Thermohaline adjustment and advection in an OGCM

Goodman, P.J. 2000. Thermohaline adjustment and advection in an OGCM. Journal of Physical Oceanography 31(6):1477-1497.

Long-range climate forecasting and its use for water management in the Pacific Northwest region of North America

Hamlet, A.F., and D.P. Lettenmaier. 2000. Long-range climate forecasting and its use for water management in the Pacific Northwest region of North America. Journal of Hydroinformatics 2(3):163-182.

Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989

Hare, S.R., and N.J. Mantua. 2000. Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989. Progress in Oceanography 47(2-4):103-145.

Equatorial Thermocline Anomalies, Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies and ENSO

Harrison, D.E., and G. Vecchi. 2000. Equatorial Thermocline Anomalies, Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies and ENSO. Geophysical Research Letter

Eastward surface jets in the central equatorial Pacific

Harrison, D.E., G. Vecchi, and R. Weisberg. 2000. Eastward surface jets in the central equatorial Pacific. Journal of Marine Research 58:735-754.

Can ozone depletion and global warming interact to produce rapid climate change?

Hartmann, D.L., J.M. Wallace, V. Limpasuvan, D.W.J. Thompson, and J.R. Holton. 2000. Can ozone depletion and global warming interact to produce rapid climate change?. Proceedings of the Naional Academy of Sciences 97:1412-1417.

Coastal hazards management and constraints on policy development: A case study of coastal erosion management in Ocean Shores, Washington.

Hastings, K. 2000. Coastal hazards management and constraints on policy development: A case study of coastal erosion management in Ocean Shores, Washington.. M.M.A thesis, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle.

A global experiment on ourselves and our children: Global warming

Hoskins, R., and A.M. Kimball. 2000. A global experiment on ourselves and our children: Global warming. pp.197-201. In Sustainable Development International. London: ICG Publishing, Ltd, edition 2.

Global adjustment of the termocline in response to deep water formation

Huang, R.X., M. Cane, N. Naik, and P.J. Goodman. 2000. Global adjustment of the termocline in response to deep water formation. Geophysical Research Letters 27(6):759-762.

Empirically derived Markov models and prediction of Tropical sea surface temperature anomalies

Johnson, S.D., D.S. Battisti, and E.S. Sarachik. 2000. Empirically derived Markov models and prediction of Tropical sea surface temperature anomalies. Journal of Climate 13:3-17.

The dependence of AABW formation on vertical diffusivity

Kamenkovich, I.V., and P.J. Goodman. 2000. The dependence of AABW formation on vertical diffusivity. Geophysical Research Letters 27:3739-3742.

A coupled atmosphere-ocean model of intermediate complexity for climate change study

Kamenkovich, I.V., A Sokolov, and P.H. Stone. 2000. A coupled atmosphere-ocean model of intermediate complexity for climate change study. MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Report No. 60.

Climate variability and forest fires in the Pacific Northwest

Keeton, W.S., and J.F. Franklin. 2000. Climate variability and forest fires in the Pacific Northwest. Accepted for Proceedings of the Ecological Society of America, 85th Annual Conference, August, Sun Bird, Utah.

Interannual variability of equatorial Pacific fluxes estimated from temperature and salinity data

Loukos, H., F. Vivier, P.P. Murphy, and D.E. Harrison. 2000. Interannual variability of equatorial Pacific fluxes estimated from temperature and salinity data. Geophysical Research Letters 27(12):1735-1738.

Ocean conditions and Columbia River salmon

Mantua, N.J. 2000. Ocean conditions and Columbia River salmon. Written testimony provided for the House Subcommittee on Power and Water hearing, Pasco, Washington, April 27, 2000. (unpublished manuscript)

Fire frequency in the Columbia River Basin: Building regional models from fire history data

McKenzie, D., D.L. Peterson, and J.K. Agee. 2000. Fire frequency in the Columbia River Basin: Building regional models from fire history data. Ecological Applications 10(5):1497-1516.

Spatial variation in fire frequency in the Interior Columbia River Basin

McKenzie, D., D.L. Peterson, and J.K. Agee. 2000. Spatial variation in fire frequency in the Interior Columbia River Basin. pp. 257-263. In L. F. Neuenschwander and K. C. Ryan (eds) Proceedings of the 1999 Joint Fire Science Conference and Workshop. Moscow, Idaho: University of Idaho.

Pacific Northwest integrated assessment of the impacts of climate variability and change: The potential role of spatial comparisons and synthesis

Miles, E.L., A.K. Snover, A.F. Hamlet, B.M. Callahan, and D.L. Fluharty. 2000. Pacific Northwest integrated assessment of the impacts of climate variability and change: The potential role of spatial comparisons and synthesis. In G. James West and L. Buffaloe (eds.), Proceedings of the Sixteenth Annual Pacific Climate Workshop, Santa Catalina Island, CA, May 24-27, 1999, Technical Report #65, pp 141-146.

Pacific Northwest regional assessment: The impacts of climate variability and climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River Basin

Miles, E.L., A.K. Snover, A.F. Hamlet, B.M. Callahan, and D.L. Fluharty. 2000. Pacific Northwest regional assessment: The impacts of climate variability and climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 36(2):399-420.

Designing a GCM experiment: Fundamentals of the planning process

Mote, P.W. 2000. Designing a GCM experiment: Fundamentals of the planning process. pp. 119-126. In P.W. Mote and A. O'Neill (eds.), Numerical Modeling of the Global Atmosphere in the Climate System. Dordrecht, Holland: Kluwer Academic Press, 517 pp.

Numerical Modeling of the Global Atmosphere in the Climate System

Mote, P.W., and A. O'Neill. 2000. Numerical Modeling of the Global Atmosphere in the Climate System. Dordrecht, Holland: Kluwer Academic Press, 517 pp.

Snow White and the six dwarves run climate models in Italy

Mote, P.W., D. Paquin, and J. Yin. 2000. Snow White and the six dwarves run climate models in Italy. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 81: 1041-1045.

Seasonal predictions

Mote, P.W., E.S. Sarachik, and M. Deque. 2000. Seasonal predictions. pp. 387-402. In P.W. Mote and A. O'Neill (eds.), Numerical Modeling of the Global Atmosphere in the Climate System, Dordrecht, Holland: Kluwer Academic Press, 517pp.

Pacific Northwest

National Assessment Synthesis Team 2000. Pacific Northwest. pp.68-73, in National Assessment Synthesis Team, Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, Overview Report, Washington, D.C.: US Global Change Research Program. 154 pp.

Improving Atmospheric Temperature Monitoring Capabilities

National Research Council 2000. Improving Atmospheric Temperature Monitoring Capabilities. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. 17pp. (Committee chair: Wallace)

Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change

National Research Council 2000. Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. 85pp. (Committee chair: Wallace)

Review of NASA's Earth Science Enterprise Research Strategy for 2000-2010

National Research Council 2000. Review of NASA's Earth Science Enterprise Research Strategy for 2000-2010. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. 40 pp. (Committee member: Sarachik)

Potential consequences of climate variations and change for the Pacific Northwest

Parson, E.A., P.W. Mote, A.F. Hamlet, N.J. Mantua, A.K. Snover, W.S. Keeton, E.L. Miles, D.J. Canning, and K.N. Ideker. 2000. Potential consequences of climate variations and change for the Pacific Northwest. Chapter 9 in National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variations and Change (Washington D.C.: USGCRP).

Monitoring air quality in mountains: designing an effective network

Peterson, D.L. 2000. Monitoring air quality in mountains: designing an effective network. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 64:81-91.

Disturbance in mountain forests

Peterson, D.L., S.J. Prichard, and D. McKenzie. 2000. Disturbance in mountain forests. pp. 51-58. In M.F. Price and N. Butt (eds.), Forests in Sustainable Mountain Development. Wallingford, United Kingdom: CABI Publishing.

Research and management issues in large-scale fire modeling

Peterson, D.L., and D.L. Schmoldt. 2000. Research and management issues in large-scale fire modeling. In H. Salminen, J. Saarikko, and W. Virtanen, (eds.), Proceedings Resource Technology '98 Nordic, Research Paper 791, Vantaa, Finland:Finnish Forest Research Institute.

Carbon distribution in subalpine forests and meadows of the Olympic Mountains, Washington

Prichard, S.J., D.L. Peterson, and R.D. Hammer. 2000. Carbon distribution in subalpine forests and meadows of the Olympic Mountains, Washington. Soil Science Society of America Journal 64(5):1834-1845.

Subsidence and upper-tropospheric drying along trajectories in a general circulation model

Salathé, E.P., and H. Hartmann. 2000. Subsidence and upper-tropospheric drying along trajectories in a general circulation model. Journal of Climate 13: 257-263.

The application of climate information

Sarachik, E.S. 2000. The application of climate information. (by invitation) Consequences 5:27-36.

Analytical group decision making in natural resources: methodology and application

Schmoldt, D.L., and D.L. Peterson. 2000. Analytical group decision making in natural resources: methodology and application. Forest Science 46:62-75.

Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I: Month-to month variability

Thompson, D.W.J., and J.M. Wallace. 2000. Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I: Month-to month variability. Journal of Climate 13:1000-1016.

Annular modes in extratropical circulation. Part II: Trends

Thompson, D.W.J., J.M. Wallace, and G.C. Hegerl. 2000. Annular modes in extratropical circulation. Part II: Trends. Journal of Climate 13:1018-1036.

A linear stochastic dynamical model of ENSO. Part I: Development

Thomson, C.J., and D.S. Battisti. 2000. A linear stochastic dynamical model of ENSO. Part I: Development. Journal of Climate 13:2818-83.

Westerly wind events, El Niño and surface temperature changes in the tropical Pacific

Vecchi, G., and D.E. Harrison. 2000. Westerly wind events, El Niño and surface temperature changes in the tropical Pacific. Journal of Climate 13:1814-1830.

North Atlantic Oscillation/Annular Mode: Two paradigms - one phenomenon

Wallace, J.M. 2000. North Atlantic Oscillation/Annular Mode: Two paradigms - one phenomenon. Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 126:791-805.

New regionalism in the Pacific Northwest: Design and transformation of institutions for sustainability

Willard, S.R. 2000. New regionalism in the Pacific Northwest: Design and transformation of institutions for sustainability. MMA thesis, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle.

Rayleigh friction, Newtonian cooling, and the linear response to steady tropical forcing

Wu, Z., D.S. Battisti, and E.S. Sarachik. 2000. Rayleigh friction, Newtonian cooling, and the linear response to steady tropical forcing. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 57:1937-1957.

The vertical structure of convective heating and the 3D structure of the forced circulation in the troposphere

Wu, Z., E.S. Sarachik, and D.S. Battisti. 2000. The vertical structure of convective heating and the 3D structure of the forced circulation in the troposphere. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 57:2169-2187.

Airborne Doppler observations of a landfalling cold front upstream of steep coastal orography

Yu, C-K., and B.F. Smull. 2000. Airborne Doppler observations of a landfalling cold front upstream of steep coastal orography. Monthly Weather Review 128:1577-1603.

1999

A consistent model for the large scale steady surface atmospheric circulation in the tropics

Battisti, D.S., E.S. Sarachik, and A.C. Hirst. 1999. A consistent model for the large scale steady surface atmospheric circulation in the tropics. Journal of Climate 12:2956-2964.

Policy implications of climate forecasts for water resources management in the Pacific Northwest

Callahan, B.M., E.L. Miles, and D.L. Fluharty. 1999. Policy implications of climate forecasts for water resources management in the Pacific Northwest. Policy Sciences 32:269-293.

An observational and numerical study of a cold front interacting with the Olympic mountains during COAST IOP5

Colle, B.A., C.F. Mass, and B.F. Smull. 1999. An observational and numerical study of a cold front interacting with the Olympic mountains during COAST IOP5. Monthly Weather Review 127(6):1310-1334.

Interhemispheric effects of interannual and decadal ENSO-like climate variations on the Americas

Dettinger, M.D., D.S. Battisti, G.J. McCabe Jr., C.M. Bitz, and R.D. Garreaud. 1999. Interhemispheric effects of interannual and decadal ENSO-like climate variations on the Americas. In V. Markgraf (ed.) Present and Past Inter-hemispheric climate linkages in the Americas and their Societal Effects, Academic Press.

1999: Interannual (ENSO) and interdecadal (ENSO-like) variability of the tropospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere

Garreaud, R.D., and D.S. Battisti. 1999. 1999: Interannual (ENSO) and interdecadal (ENSO-like) variability of the tropospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere. Journal of Climate 12:2,113-2,123.

The impacts of drought on Yakima Valley irrigated agriculture and Seattle municipal and industrial water supply

Gray, K.N. 1999. The impacts of drought on Yakima Valley irrigated agriculture and Seattle municipal and industrial water supply. MMA thesis, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle.

Climate variability and flood events in Pacific Northwest rivers

Hamlet, A.F., and D.P. Lettenmaier. 1999. Climate variability and flood events in Pacific Northwest rivers. Unpublished paper. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle.

Columbia River streamflow forecasting based on ENSO and PDO climate signals

Hamlet, A.F., and D.P. Lettenmaier. 1999. Columbia River streamflow forecasting based on ENSO and PDO climate signals. ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 125(6):333-341.

Effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the Columbia River Basin

Hamlet, A.F., and D.P. Lettenmaier. 1999. Effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the Columbia River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35(6):1597-1623.

Overview of Columbia basin long-lead streamflow forecasts

Hamlet, A.F., and D.P. Lettenmaier. 1999. Overview of Columbia basin long-lead streamflow forecasts. Conference proceedings paper for the American Water Resources Association, October 1999.

Inverse production regimes: Alaskan and West Coast Pacific salmon

Hare, S.R., N.J. Mantua, and R.C. Francis. 1999. Inverse production regimes: Alaskan and West Coast Pacific salmon. Fisheries 21(1):6-14.

On the termination of El Nino

Harrison, D.E., and G. Vecchi. 1999. On the termination of El Nino. Geophysical Research Letters 26:1593-1596.

A global isopycnal OGCM: Validations using observed upper ocean variability's during 1992-93

Hu, D., and Y. Chao. 1999. A global isopycnal OGCM: Validations using observed upper ocean variability's during 1992-93. Monthly Weather Review 127:706-725.

Markov model studies of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation

Johnson, S.D. 1999. Markov model studies of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Washington, Seattle.

Interdisciplinarity and integrated assessment.

Kaje, J.H. 1999. Interdisciplinarity and integrated assessment.. Unpublished manuscript. Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington, Seattle.

Simulations of the ENSO hydroclimate signals in the Pacific Northwest Columbia River Basin

Leung, L.R., A.F. Hamlet, D.P. Lettenmaier, and A. Kumar. 1999. Simulations of the ENSO hydroclimate signals in the Pacific Northwest Columbia River Basin. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80(11):2313-2329.

An exploratory look at Vibrio Parahaemolyticus and PSP in Washington State

Mantua, N.J. 1999. An exploratory look at Vibrio Parahaemolyticus and PSP in Washington State. In Terry Nosho (ed), Proceedings of the 9th Conference for Shellfish Growers, March 16, 1999, Olympia, Washington.

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and climate forecasting for North America

Mantua, N.J. 1999. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and climate forecasting for North America. In Maryam Golnaraghi (ed), Climate Risk Solutions 1(1):10-13 (newsletter).

ENSO impacts on the Pacific Northwest: An integrated assessment

Miles, E.L., N.J. Mantua, and P.W. Mote. 1999. ENSO impacts on the Pacific Northwest: An integrated assessment. In W.S. Wooster and W.T. Burke (eds), Proceedings of the Public Program, School of Marine Affairs 25th Anniversary, pp.90-98. School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington.

Pacific Northwest regional assessment: The impacts of climate variability and climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River Basin

Miles, E.L., A.K. Snover, A.F. Hamlet, B.M. Callahan, and D.L. Fluharty. 1999. Pacific Northwest regional assessment: The impacts of climate variability and climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River Basin. Paper prepared for the American Water Resources Association Specialty Conference on the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change to Water Resources of the United States, Atlanta, Georgia, May 10-12, 1999.

Interdecadal modulation of interannual climate variability

Minobe, S., and N.J. Mantua. 1999. Interdecadal modulation of interannual climate variability. n M. Angle and A. Bychkov (eds), Ecosystem Dynamics in the Eastern and Western Gyres of the Subarctic Pacific, a special issue of Progress in Oceanography 43:163-192.

Impacts of Climate Variability and Change, Pacific Northwest

Mote, P.W., D.J. Canning, D.L. Fluharty, R.C. Francis, J.F. Franklin, A.F. Hamlet, M. Hershman, M. Holmberg, K.N. Ideker, W.S. Keeton, D.P. Lettenmaier, L.R. Leung, N.J. Mantua, E.L. Miles, B. Noble, H. Parandvash, D.W. Peterson, A.K. Snover, and S.R. Willard. 1999. Impacts of Climate Variability and Change, Pacific Northwest. National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration, Office of Global Programs, and JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, WA. 110 pp.

Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on the Pacific Northwest: Executive Summary

Mote, P.W., M. Holmberg, N.J. Mantua, and Climate Impacts Group. 1999. Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on the Pacific Northwest: Executive Summary. National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration, Office of Global Programs, and JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington. 12 pp.

Decadal variations in forest fire activity in the Pacific Northwest

Mote, P.W., W.S. Keeton, and J.F. Franklin. 1999. Decadal variations in forest fire activity in the Pacific Northwest. In Proceedings of the 11th Conference on Applied Climatology, pp. 155-156, American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA.

Adequacy of Observing Systems

National Research Council 1999. Adequacy of Observing Systems. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. 53pp (Committee member: Sarachik)

Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade

National Research Council 1999. Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. 616 pp. (Committee member: Sarachik)

Making Climate Forecasts Matter

National Research Council 1999. Making Climate Forecasts Matter. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. 175 pp. (Committee member: Sarachik)

Observations of the mesoscale structure of the low-level jet region of a strong landfalling Pacific storm

Persson, P.O., P.J. Neiman, F.M. Ralph, B.F. Smull, and B. Walter. 1999. Observations of the mesoscale structure of the low-level jet region of a strong landfalling Pacific storm. In Proceedings of the 8th Conference On Mesoscale Processes, Boston, Massachusetts: American Meteorological Society.

Shipborne dual-Doppler operations during TOGA COARE: Integrated observations of storm kinematics and electrification

Petersen, W.A., R.C. Cifelli, S.A. Rutledge, and B.S. Ferrier. 1999. Shipborne dual-Doppler operations during TOGA COARE: Integrated observations of storm kinematics and electrification. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80:81-97.

Marine survival of Puget Sound coho salmon: Deciphering the climate signal

Pinnix, W.D. 1999. Marine survival of Puget Sound coho salmon: Deciphering the climate signal. MS thesis, School of Fisheries Science, University of Washington, Seattle.

TOGA

Sarachik, E.S. 1999. TOGA. A short contribution to the Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change, New York, New York: Wiley Publishing.

When science sells: El Niño and the newsprint media

Senkler, J.E. 1999. When science sells: El Niño and the newsprint media. MMA thesis, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle.

Thermally forced surface winds on an equatorial beta-plane

Wu, Z., E.S. Sarachik, and D.S. Battisti. 1999. Thermally forced surface winds on an equatorial beta-plane. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 56:2029-2037.

Response of high-elevation forests in the Olympic Mountains to climatic change

Zolbrod, A.N., and D.L. Peterson. 1999. Response of high-elevation forests in the Olympic Mountains to climatic change. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 29:1966-1978.

1998

The TOGA decade: reviewing the progress of El Nino research and prediction

Anderson, D.L.T., E.S. Sarachik, and P.J. Webster. (Editors) 1998. The TOGA decade: reviewing the progress of El Nino research and prediction. Journal of Geophysical Research 103(C7).

The basic effects of atmosphere-ocean thermal coupling on midlatitude variability

Barsugli, J., and D.S. Battisti. 1998. The basic effects of atmosphere-ocean thermal coupling on midlatitude variability. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 55:477-493.

Generalized inversion of tropical atmosphere-ocean data and a coupled model of the tropical Pacific

Bennett, A.F., B.S. Chua, D.E. Harrison, and M.J. McPhaden. 1998. Generalized inversion of tropical atmosphere-ocean data and a coupled model of the tropical Pacific. Journal of Climate 11:1768-1792.

Impact of an interactive North Atlantic ocean on interannual midlatitude climate variability

Bhatt, U.S., M.A. Alexander, D.S. Battisti, D.D. Houghton, and L.M. Keller. 1998. Impact of an interactive North Atlantic ocean on interannual midlatitude climate variability. Journal of Climate 11:1615-1632.

The physics of El Nino

Chang, P., and D.S. Battisti. 1998. The physics of El Nino. Physics World 8:41-47.

An observational and numerical study of a cold front interacting with the Olympic mountains during COAST IOP5

Colle, B.A., C.F. Mass, and B.F. Smull. 1998. An observational and numerical study of a cold front interacting with the Olympic mountains during COAST IOP5. In Proceedings of the 16th Conference On Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Phoenix, American Meteorological Society, pp. 202-205.

A comparison of temperature, salinity, and chlorofluorocarbon observations with results from a high resolution 3-dimensional global ocean model

Craig, A.P., J.L. Bullister, D.E. Harrison, R.M. Chervin, and A.J. Semtner, Jr.. 1998. A comparison of temperature, salinity, and chlorofluorocarbon observations with results from a high resolution 3-dimensional global ocean model. Journal of Geophysical Research 103:1099-1119.

Effects of interdecadal climate variability on the oceanic ecosystems of the NE Pacific

Francis, R.C., S.R. Hare, A.B. Hollowed, and W.S. Wooster. 1998. Effects of interdecadal climate variability on the oceanic ecosystems of the NE Pacific. Fisheries Oceanography 7(1):1-21.

The role of North Atlantic deep water formation in an OGCM's ventilation and thermohaline circulation

Goodman, P.J. 1998. The role of North Atlantic deep water formation in an OGCM's ventilation and thermohaline circulation. Journal of Physical Oceanography 28:1759-1785.

A configurable Web server for gridded data: A framework for collaboration

Hankin, S., J. Davison, J. Callahan, D.E. Harrison, and K. O'Brien. 1998. A configurable Web server for gridded data: A framework for collaboration. pp. 417-418, In conference proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Interactive Information and Processing Systems for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology Boston, Massachusetts: American Meteorological Society.

Climate requirements for SST

Harrison, D.E. 1998. Climate requirements for SST. In Proceedings, GCOS/GOOS Sea Surface Temperature Workshop, Palisades, NY.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature and wind anomalies, 1946-1993.

Harrison, D.E., and N.K. Larkin. 1998. El Niño-Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature and wind anomalies, 1946-1993.. Reviews of Geophysics 36:353-399.

Seasonal U.S. temperature and precipitation anomalies associated with El Niño: Historical results and comparison with 1997-1998

Harrison, D.E., and N.K. Larkin. 1998. Seasonal U.S. temperature and precipitation anomalies associated with El Niño: Historical results and comparison with 1997-1998. Geophysical Research Letter 25:3,959-3,962.

Sensitivity of the coastal management system in Washington state to the incorporation of climate forecasts and projections

Johnson, Z.P. 1998. Sensitivity of the coastal management system in Washington state to the incorporation of climate forecasts and projections. MMA thesis, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle.

Value of Forecasting Interannual Recruitment Variation for Managing Washington State's Salmon Fisheries

Kaje, J.H. 1998. Value of Forecasting Interannual Recruitment Variation for Managing Washington State's Salmon Fisheries. M.M.A. thesis, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle.

The annual cycle of SST in the eastern tropical Pacific, as diagnosed in an ocean GCM

Kessler, W.S., L.M. Rothstein, and D. Chen. 1998. The annual cycle of SST in the eastern tropical Pacific, as diagnosed in an ocean GCM. Journal of Climate, 11:777-799.

Review and analysis of factors influencing the selection and prioritization of small stream rehabilitation projects in western Washington

Kropp, S.J. 1998. Review and analysis of factors influencing the selection and prioritization of small stream rehabilitation projects in western Washington. MPA thesis, Evans School of Public Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle.

An ecosystem model with iron limitation of primary and export production in the equatorial Pacific at 140W

Loukos, H., B. Frost, D.E. Harrison, and J. Murray. 1998. An ecosystem model with iron limitation of primary and export production in the equatorial Pacific at 140W. Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 44(9-10):2221-2250.

Potential consequences of global warming for the Northwestern US: Water resources and marine ecosystems

Mantua, N.J. 1998. Potential consequences of global warming for the Northwestern US: Water resources and marine ecosystems. Extended abstract for a joint lecture with Professor Dennis Lettenmaier for the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), May 19, 1998.

Variability of DpCO2 in the subarctic North Pacific: a comparison of results from four expeditions

Murphy, P.P., D.E. Harrison, R. Feely, T. Takahashi, R. Weiss, and R.H. Gammon. 1998. Variability of DpCO2 in the subarctic North Pacific: a comparison of results from four expeditions. Tellus 50B:185–204.

Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling to Support Climate Change Assessment Activities

National Research Council 1998. Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling to Support Climate Change Assessment Activities. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. 65 pp. (Committee member: Sarachik)

Decade-to-Century-Scale Climate Variability and Change: A Science Strategy

National Research Council 1998. Decade-to-Century-Scale Climate Variability and Change: A Science Strategy. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. 160 pp. (Committee members: Battisti, Sarachik)

Global Environment Change, Research Pathways for the Next Decade, Overview

National Research Council 1998. Global Environment Change, Research Pathways for the Next Decade, Overview. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. 59 pp. (Committee member: Sarachik)

The Imperatives for Climate and Climate Change Entering the 21st Century

National Research Council 1998. The Imperatives for Climate and Climate Change Entering the 21st Century. National Academy Press, Washington D.C. (Committee members: Battisti, Sarachik)

ENSO theory

Neelin, J.D., D.S. Battisti, A.C. Hirst, F.F. Jin, Y. Wakata, T. Yamagata, and S. Zebiak. 1998. ENSO theory. Journal of Geophysical Research 103:14261-14290.

An observational study of fronts and frontal mergers during the phasing of arctic and Pacific-polar synoptic-scale waves over the continental United States

Neiman, P.J., M.A. Shapiro, F.M. Ralph, B.F. Smull, and D. Johnson. 1998. An observational study of fronts and frontal mergers during the phasing of arctic and Pacific-polar synoptic-scale waves over the continental United States. Monthly Weather Review 126:2,521-2,554.

Comparison of NCEP/NCAR and ECMWF reanalyzed fields with TOGA TAO buoy observations over the tropical Pacific

Smull, B.F., and M.J. McPhaden. 1998. Comparison of NCEP/NCAR and ECMWF reanalyzed fields with TOGA TAO buoy observations over the tropical Pacific. In Proceedingsof the 1st International Conference On Reanalyses, Silver Spring, pp. 227-230

OSTP/USGCRP Regional Workshop on the Impacts of Global Climate Change on the Pacific Northwest: Final Report

Snover, A.K., E.L. Miles, and B. Henry. 1998. OSTP/USGCRP Regional Workshop on the Impacts of Global Climate Change on the Pacific Northwest: Final Report. NOAA Climate and Global Change Program Special Report No. 11 (March).

Oceanic modeling of ENSO

Stockdale, T.N., A.J. Busalacchi, D.E. Harrison, and R. Seager. 1998. Oceanic modeling of ENSO. Journal of Geophysical Research 103:14325-14356.

Electrical structure in thunderstorm convective regions. Part I: Mesoscale convective systems

Stolzenburg, M., W.D. Rust, B.F. Smull, and T.C. Marshall. 1998. Electrical structure in thunderstorm convective regions. Part I: Mesoscale convective systems. Journal of Geophysical Research 103:14,059-14,14,078.

The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields

Thompson, D.W.J., and J.M. Wallace. 1998. The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophysical Research Letter 25:1,297-1,300.

Initial conditions for optimal growth in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model of ENSO

Thomson, C.J. 1998. Initial conditions for optimal growth in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model of ENSO. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 55:537-557.

The development of a linear, stochastic, dynamical model of El Nino/Southern Oscillation

Thomson, C.J. 1998. The development of a linear, stochastic, dynamical model of El Nino/Southern Oscillation. Ph.D. thesis, University of Washington, Seattle.

Position Paper for the International CLIVAR Conference

U.S. CLIVAR 1998. Position Paper for the International CLIVAR Conference. International CLIVAR Conference, Paris. 38 pp. (Member of the Scientific Steering Committee: Battisti)

On the structure and evolution of ENSO-related climate variability in the tropical Pacific: lessons from TOGA

Wallace, J.M., E.M. Rasmusson, T.P. Mitchell, V.E. Kousky, E.S. Sarachik, and H. von Storch. 1998. On the structure and evolution of ENSO-related climate variability in the tropical Pacific: lessons from TOGA. Journal of Geophysical Research 103:14,241-14,259.

Initial CLIVAR Implementation Plan

World Climate Research Programme 1998. Initial CLIVAR Implementation Plan. WCRP-103, WMO/TD No. 869, 290 pp. (Member of the Scientific Steering Group: Sarachik)

Thermally driven surface winds in the tropics

Wu, Z. 1998. Thermally driven surface winds in the tropics. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Washington, Seattle.

Interaction of a Pacific cold front with the coastal mountains of the western U.S.

Yang, M-J., B.A. Colle, B.F. Smull, R.A. Houze, and C-K. Yu. 1998. Interaction of a Pacific cold front with the coastal mountains of the western U.S.. In Proceedings of the 16th Conference On Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Phoenix, American Meteorological Society pp. 87-89.

A Long-Lived Mesoscale Vortex Observed in its Formative Stage by Airborne Doppler Radar

Yu, C-K., J-D. Jou, and B.F. Smull. 1998. A Long-Lived Mesoscale Vortex Observed in its Formative Stage by Airborne Doppler Radar. Monthly Weather Review 127:838-857.

Airborne dual-Doppler observations of a coastal wind maximum associated with a landfalling cold front

Yu, C-K., B.F. Smull, and R.A. Houze. 1998. Airborne dual-Doppler observations of a coastal wind maximum associated with a landfalling cold front. In Proceedings of the 2nd Conference On Coastal & Oceanic Prediction and Processes, Phoenix, American Meteorological Society, pp. 206-209.

1997

The Coastal Observations and Simulations with Topography (COAST) experiment

Bond, N., C.F. Mass, and B.F. Smull. 1997. The Coastal Observations and Simulations with Topography (COAST) experiment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78:1:941-1,955.

Airborne dual-Doppler observations of an intense frontal system approaching the Pacific Northwest coast

Braun, S.A., R.A. Houze, and B.F. Smull. 1997. Airborne dual-Doppler observations of an intense frontal system approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. Monthly Weather Review 125:3,131-3,156.

The potential of climate forecasts for water resource management in the Columbia River basin

Callahan, B.M. 1997. The potential of climate forecasts for water resource management in the Columbia River basin. MMA thesis, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle.

A study of the predictability of tropical Pacific SST in a coupled atmosphere/ocean model using singular vector analysis

Chen, Y-Q., D.S. Battisti, R.N. Palmer, J. Barsugli, and E.S. Sarachik. 1997. A study of the predictability of tropical Pacific SST in a coupled atmosphere/ocean model using singular vector analysis. Monthly Weather Review 125:831-845.

Assessing the coastal zone sensitivity and vulnerability to regional climate variability and change in the Pacific Northwest

Field, J.C. 1997. Assessing the coastal zone sensitivity and vulnerability to regional climate variability and change in the Pacific Northwest. MMA thesis, School of Marine Affairs, University of Washington, Seattle.

Regime scale climate forcing of salmon populations in the Northwest Pacific - Some new thoughts and findings

Francis, R.C., and S.R. Hare. 1997. Regime scale climate forcing of salmon populations in the Northwest Pacific - Some new thoughts and findings. pp.113-128. In R.L. Emmett and M.H. Schiewe (eds.), Estuarine and Ocean Survival of Northeastern Pacific Salmon.U.S> Department of Commerce, NOAA Technical Memo, NMFS-NWFSC-29, 313 pp.

Sharing oceanographic and atmospheric model outputs over the World Wide Web: A portable server for gridded climate data

Hankin, S., J. Callahan, J. Davison, and D.E. Harrison. 1997. Sharing oceanographic and atmospheric model outputs over the World Wide Web: A portable server for gridded climate data. In 1997 Joint Assemblies of the International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences (IAMAS) and International Association for Physical Science of the Oceans (IAPSO) Melbourne, Australia, 1-9 July 97, published on CD ROM.

The Darwin Sea Level Pressure record, 1876-1996; Evidence for climate change?

Harrison, D.E., and N.K. Larkin. 1997. The Darwin Sea Level Pressure record, 1876-1996; Evidence for climate change?. Geophysical Research Letter 24:1,779-1,782.

Surface westerly wind events in the tropical Pacific 1986-1995

Harrison, D.E., and G. Vecchi. 1997. Surface westerly wind events in the tropical Pacific 1986-1995. Journal of Climate 10:3,131-3,156.

Global-scale water masses, meridional circulation and heat transport simulated with a global isopycnal ocean model

Hu, D. 1997. Global-scale water masses, meridional circulation and heat transport simulated with a global isopycnal ocean model. Journal of Physical Oceanography27:96-120.

A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production

Mantua, N.J., S.R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J.M. Wallace, and R.C. Francis. 1997. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78(6):1069-1079.

An intercomparison of near-surface wind products over the ocean on monthly mean and longer time scales, 1985-1995

McDermott, D., D.E. Harrison, and N.K. Larkin. 1997. An intercomparison of near-surface wind products over the ocean on monthly mean and longer time scales, 1985-1995. NOAA Technical Memo, ERL PMEL-110 (PB97-180111), 163 pp.

Anomalous sea surface temperature and local air-sea energy exchange on intra-annual timescales in the northeastern subtropical Pacific

Ronca, R., and D.S. Battisti. 1997. Anomalous sea surface temperature and local air-sea energy exchange on intra-annual timescales in the northeastern subtropical Pacific. Journal of Climate 10:102-117.

White Paper: OSTP/USGCRP Regional Workshop on the Impacts of Global Climate Change on the Pacific Northwest

Snover, A.K. 1997. White Paper: OSTP/USGCRP Regional Workshop on the Impacts of Global Climate Change on the Pacific Northwest. Preparatory White Paper for OSTP/USGCRP Regional Workshop on the Impacts of Global Climate Change on the Pacific Northwest. July 31, 1997.

Westerly wind events in the tropical Pacific, 1986–1995: An atlas from the ECMWF operational surface wind fields

Vecchi, G., and D.E. Harrison. 1997. Westerly wind events in the tropical Pacific, 1986–1995: An atlas from the ECMWF operational surface wind fields. NOAA Technical Memo, ERL PMEL-109 (PB97-188213), 222 pp.

Pan American Climate Studies: Implementation Plan Draft

Forced planetary waves on an equatorial beta-plane

Wu, Z., E.S. Sarachik, and D.S. Battisti. 1997. Forced planetary waves on an equatorial beta-plane. In Proceedings of the 11th AMS Conference on Waves and Stability pp.6-10, Boston Massachusetts: American Meteorological Society.

ENSO-like decade-to-century scale variability: 1900-93

Zhang, Y., J.M. Wallace, and D.S. Battisti. 1997. ENSO-like decade-to-century scale variability: 1900-93. Journal of Climate 10(5): 1004-1020.

1996

Prediction of ENSO: Model forecast skill and optimal error growth

Chen, Y-Q. 1996. Prediction of ENSO: Model forecast skill and optimal error growth. Ph.D. thesis, University of Washington, Seattle.

Climate processes

Dickinson, R.E., V. Meleshko, D. Randall, E.S. Sarachik, P. Silva-Dias, and A. Slingo. 1996. Climate processes. pp. 193-227, In the Second Assessment Report of the International Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.

Climate modeling: atmosphere-ocean-land interactions

Dickinson, R.E., and E.S. Sarachik. 1996. Climate modeling: atmosphere-ocean-land interactions. pp. 3-7, In McGraw-Hill Encyclopedia of Science and Technology 8'th edition. New York, New York: McGraw-Hill (publisher).

A strategy and a tool, FERRET, for closely integrated visualization and analysis

Hankin, S., D.E. Harrison, J. Osborne, J. Davison, and K. O'Brien. 1996. A strategy and a tool, FERRET, for closely integrated visualization and analysis. Journal of Visualization and Computer Animation 7:149-157.

Vertical velocity in the tropical Pacific a circulation model perspective for JGOFS

Harrison, D.E. 1996. Vertical velocity in the tropical Pacific a circulation model perspective for JGOFS. Deep Sea Research Part II: Tropical Studies in Oceanography 43(4-6):687-705.

The COADS sea level pressure signal: A near-global El Niño composite and time series results, 1946-1993

Harrison, D.E., and N.S. Larkin. 1996. The COADS sea level pressure signal: A near-global El Niño composite and time series results, 1946-1993. Journal of Climate 9:3025-3055.

On the computation of diapycnal diffusive and advective scalar fluxes in multilayer isopycnic-coordinate ocean models

Hu, D. 1996. On the computation of diapycnal diffusive and advective scalar fluxes in multilayer isopycnic-coordinate ocean models. Monthly Weather Review 124:1834-1851.

On the sensitivity of thermocline depth and meridional heat transport to vertical diffusivity in OGCMs

Hu, D. 1996. On the sensitivity of thermocline depth and meridional heat transport to vertical diffusivity in OGCMs. Journal of Physical Oceanography 26:1480-1494.

Interactions of the Northern and Southern branches of the thermohaline circulation

McDermott, D. 1996. Interactions of the Northern and Southern branches of the thermohaline circulation. Ph.D. thesis, University of Washington, Seattle.

The regulation of northern overturning by southern hemisphere winds

McDermott, D. 1996. The regulation of northern overturning by southern hemisphere winds. Journal of Physical Oceanography 26:1234-1255.

Thermohaline circulation and variability in a two-hemisphere sector model of the Atlantic

McDermott, D., and E.S. Sarachik. 1996. Thermohaline circulation and variability in a two-hemisphere sector model of the Atlantic. pp.384-396 In D.G. Martinson, K. Bryan, M. Ghil, M.M. Hall, T.R. Karl, E.S. Sarachik, S. Sorooshian, and L.D. Talley, (eds.) The Natural Variability of the Climate System on the 10-100 Year Time Scales Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.

An observational study of ENSO variability in 1950-78 and 1979-92

Mitchell, T.P., and J.M. Wallace. 1996. An observational study of ENSO variability in 1950-78 and 1979-92. Journal of Climate 9:3:149-3,161.

Learning to Predict the Climate Variations Associated with El Niño: Accomplishments and Legacies of the TOGA Program

National Research Council 1996. Learning to Predict the Climate Variations Associated with El Niño: Accomplishments and Legacies of the TOGA Program. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. 192 pp. (Committee chair: Sarachik)

El Nino

Sarachik, E.S. 1996. El Nino. pp. 661-663, In McGraw-Hill Encyclopedia of Science and Technology 8'th edition. New York, New York: McGraw-Hill (publisher).

Mechanisms for decadal-to-centennial variability of the climate

Sarachik, E.S., M. Winton, and F.L. Yin. 1996. Mechanisms for decadal-to-centennial variability of the climate. pp. 157-210 InProceedings of 1995 NATO Advanced Study Institute on Decade-to-Century Scale Climate Variability J. Willebrand and D.L.T. Anderson (eds.), Berlin, Germany: Springer Verlag.

Comparison of NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed fields and surface observations over the TOGA-TAO array

Smull, B.F., and M.J. McPhaden. 1996. Comparison of NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed fields and surface observations over the TOGA-TAO array. In Proceedings of the 21st Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, 28 October-1 November 1996. Climate Prediction Center, Washington, D.C., pp. 57-60.

Natural and forced variability in the climate record

Wallace, J.M. 1996. Natural and forced variability in the climate record. In D.G. Martinson, K. Bryan, M. Ghil, M.M. Hall, T.R. Karl, E.S. Sarachik, S. Sorooshian, and L.D. Talley (eds.),The Natural Variability of the Climate System on the 10-100 Year Time Scales. Washington, D.C.:National Academy Press, 199-217.

Observed climate variability: spatial structure

Wallace, J.M. 1996. Observed climate variability: spatial structure. In Proceedings of NATO Advanced Study Institute Workshop on Decade to Century Scale Climate Variability, Les Houches, France, February 1995, J. Willebrand and D.L.T. Anderson eds., Springer Verlag, pp. 31-81.

Observed climate variability: time dependence

Wallace, J.M. 1996. Observed climate variability: time dependence. In Proceedings of NATO Advanced Study Institute Workshop on Decade to Century Scale Climate Variability, Les Houches, France, February 1995, J. Willebrand and D.L.T. Anderson eds., Springer Verlag, pp. 1-30.

Interpretation of interdecadal trends in Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature

Wallace, J.M., Y. Zhang, and L. Bajuk. 1996. Interpretation of interdecadal trends in Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature. Journal of Climate 9:249-259.

On the role of horizontal boundaries in parameter sensitivity and decadal scale variability of coarse-resolution ocean general circulation models

Winton, M. 1996. On the role of horizontal boundaries in parameter sensitivity and decadal scale variability of coarse-resolution ocean general circulation models. Journal of Physical Oceanography 26:289-304.

1995

Precipitation charge measurements in the stratiform regions of two mesoscale convective systems

Bateman, M.G., W.S. Rust, B.F. Smull, and T.C. Marshall. 1995. Precipitation charge measurements in the stratiform regions of two mesoscale convective systems. Journal of Geophysical Research 100:16,341-16,356.

Decade-to-century time-scale variability in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system: modeling issues

Battisti, D.S. 1995. Decade-to-century time-scale variability in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system: modeling issues. pp.419-429, In D.G. Martinson, K. Bryan, M. Ghil, M.M. Hall, T.R. Karl, E.S. Sarachik, S. Sorooshian, and L.D. Talley (eds.), The Natural Variability of the Climate System on the 10-100 Year Time Scales. Washington, D.C.National Academy Press.

The dependence of the low-level easterly jet on Hadley and Walker circulations

Battisti, D.S., and D.D. Ovens. 1995. The dependence of the low-level easterly jet on Hadley and Walker circulations. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 52:3911-3931.

Understanding and predicting ENSO

Battisti, D.S., and E.S. Sarachik. 1995. Understanding and predicting ENSO. Reviews of Geophysics contributions in Ocean Sciences (supplement) 33:1367-1376.

A new ocean model for studying the tropical oceanic aspects of ENSO

Chen, Y-Q., D.S. Battisti, and E.S. Sarachik. 1995. A new ocean model for studying the tropical oceanic aspects of ENSO. Journal of Physical Oceanography 25:2065-2089.

On the symmetric stability of low-level equatorial flow

Levy, G., and D.S. Battisti. 1995. On the symmetric stability of low-level equatorial flow. The Global Ocean and Atmosphere System 3:341-354.

On the role of competing coupled instabilities in the behavior of the Zebiak-Cane and Battisti coupled ocean-atmosphere models

Mantua, N.J., and D.S. Battisti. 1995. On the role of competing coupled instabilities in the behavior of the Zebiak-Cane and Battisti coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Journal of Climate 8:2897-2927.

"Integrated Assessment of Climate Variability, Impacts, and Policy Response in the Pacific Northwest."

Miles, E.L. 1995. "Integrated Assessment of Climate Variability, Impacts, and Policy Response in the Pacific Northwest.". US GLOBEC NEWS, No. 9 (November): pp. 4-5 and 14-15.

A Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program and NASA's Mission to Planet Earth / Earth Observing System

National Research Council 1995. A Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program and NASA's Mission to Planet Earth / Earth Observing System. National Academy Press 96 pp. (Committee member: Sarachik)

Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales

National Research Council 1995. Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales. D.G. Martinson, K. Bryan, M. Ghil, M.M. Hall, T.R. Karl, E.S. Sarachik, S. Sorooshian, and L.D. Talley (eds.), National Academy Press, Washington, D.C. 630 pp.

Coupled modeling

Sarachik, E.S. 1995. Coupled modeling. pp.414-418, In D.G. Martinson, K. Bryan, M. Ghil, M.M. Hall, T.R. Karl, E.S. Sarachik, S. Sorooshian, and L.D. Talley (eds.), The Natural Variability of the Climate System on the 10-100 Year Time Scales. Washington, D.C.National Academy Press.

El Nino

Sarachik, E.S. 1995. El Nino. pp. 125-129 In S. Parker (ed), The 1995 McGraw-Hill Yearbook of Science and Technology, New York, New York: McGraw Hill.

Review of B.A. Kagan's "Ocean-atmosphere interaction and climate modeling"

Sarachik, E.S. 1995. Review of B.A. Kagan's "Ocean-atmosphere interaction and climate modeling". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 76:1468-1469.

Convectively-induced mesoscale phenomena in the tropical and warm-season midlatitude atmosphere (IUGG Quadrennial Report)

Smull, B.F. 1995. Convectively-induced mesoscale phenomena in the tropical and warm-season midlatitude atmosphere (IUGG Quadrennial Report). Reviews of Geophysics Supplement 33:897-906.

Dynamical contribution to hemispheric-mean temperature trends

Wallace, J.M., Y. Zhang, and J.A. Renwick. 1995. Dynamical contribution to hemispheric-mean temperature trends. Science 270:780-783.

Energetic of deep-decoupling oscillations

Winton, M. 1995. Energetic of deep-decoupling oscillations. Journal of Physical Oceanography 25:420-427.

Why is the deep sinking narrow?

Winton, M. 1995. Why is the deep sinking narrow?. Journal of Physical Oceanography 25:997-1005.

CLIVAR: A Study of Climate Variability and Predictability: Science Plan

World Climate Research Programme 1995. CLIVAR: A Study of Climate Variability and Predictability: Science Plan. World Climate Research Programme Report 89, WMO Technical Document No 690. 157 pp. (Member of the Scientific Steering Group: Sarachik)

A mechanistic model of ocean interdecadal thermohaline oscillations

Yin, F.Y. 1995. A mechanistic model of ocean interdecadal thermohaline oscillations. Journal of Physical Oceanography 25:3239-3246.

On interdecadal thermohaline oscillations in a sector ocean general circulation model: advective and convective processes

Yin, F.Y., and E.S. Sarachik. 1995. On interdecadal thermohaline oscillations in a sector ocean general circulation model: advective and convective processes. Journal of Physical Oceanography 25:2465-2484.

TOGA COARE aircraft mission summary images: An electronic atlas

Yuter, S.E., R.A. Houze, B.F. Smull, F.D. Marks, and J.R. Daugherty. 1995. TOGA COARE aircraft mission summary images: An electronic atlas. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 76:312-328.

1994

Singular vectors and the predictability of weather and climate

Palmer, R.N., R. Buizza, F. Molteni, Y-Q. Chen, and S. Corti. 1994. Singular vectors and the predictability of weather and climate. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series A, Mathematical and Physical Sciences 348:459-475.

Search

Go To Publication by Year:

View Publications by Topic:

View Publications by Author:

Search the Publication Abstracts:

Other CSES Links:

Publications

View: All Publications

In press

State drought programs: Lessons and recommendations from the western U.S.

The tools needed to provide information for adaptation to future climate conditions

ENSO anomalies over the western United States: Present and future patterns in regional climate simulations

In review

Diets indicate potential drivers of steelhead productivity in the North Pacific Ocean

Climate change impacts on dairy production in the Pacific Northwest

A technique to optimally design a meteorological network

Changes in 20th century extreme temperature and precipitation over the western United States from regional climate model simulations and observations

Impacts of regional climate change on the Pacific Northwest white water recreation industry

2012

Paleoreconstruction of cool season precipitation and warm season streamflow in the Pacific Northwest with estimates of uncertainties and applications to climate change assessments

2011

Potential climate change impacts on thermal habitats of Pacific salmon in the North Pacific Ocean and adjacent seas

Projected climate change over Southeast Asia simulated using a WRF regional climate model

Extreme precipitations and temperatures over the U.S. Pacific Northwest: A comparison between observations, reanalysis data and regional models

Adapting to climate change at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park

Impacts of climate variability and climate change on transportation systems and infrastructure in the Pacific Northwest

Temporal and spatial variability in warm season nocturnal air temperatures in two north Idaho mountain ranges

Methodology for developing flood rule curves conditioned on El Niño-Southern Oscillation classification

Regional Climate and Hydrologic Change in the Northern U.S. Rockies and Pacific Northwest: Internally Consistent Projections of Future Climate for Resource Management

Climatic water balance and regional fire years in the Pacific Northwest, USA: Linking regional climate and fire at landscape scales

Managing uncertainty in climate-driven ecological models to inform adaptation to climate change

U.S. National Forests adapt to climate change through science-management partnerships

Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors

Climate change and wilderness fire regimes

The Landscape Ecology of Fire

Past trends and future scenarios for environmental conditions favoring the accumulation of paralytic shellfish toxins in Puget Sound shellfish

Multiscale influence of climate on estuarine populations of forage fish: The role of coastal upwelling, freshwater flow and temperature

Climate change and mountain water resources: Overview and recommendations for research, management, and policy

Simulating the effects of climate change on population connectivity of American marten (Martes americana) in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA

Flow regime, temperature and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change

Interactions between climate and population density in the episodic recruitment of bocaccio, Sebastes paucispinis, a Pacific rockfish

2010

Seasonal hydrologic forecasting: Do multimodel ensemble averages always yield improvements in forecast skill?

Fine scale hydrologic model implementation and fine-scale/macro-scale model inter-comparison study

Regional interdecadal variability in bias-corrected ocean temperature data

Historical meteorological driving data set

Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington State

Macro-scale hydrologic model implementation

Data products test procedures

Quantifying hypoxia impacts on an estuarine demersal community using a hierarchical ensemble approach

Estimating the water budget of major U.S. river basins via remote sensing

Assessing water resources adaptive capacity to climate change impacts in the Pacific Northwest region of North America

Introduction and project overview

Seattle City Light Climate Change Analysis: Climate Change Impacts on Regional Climate, Climate Extremes, Streamflow, Water Temperature, and Hydrologic Extremes

Effects of projected climate change on energy supply and demand in the Pacific Northwest and Washington State

Streamflow locations, sources of natural streamflow data, and key hydrologic products

Statistical downscaling techniques for global climate model simulations of temperature and precipitation with application to water resources planning studies

Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: projected mortality risks due to heat events and air pollution

Overview of website design and implementation

Using a stochastic model and cross-scale analysis to evaluate controls on historical low-severity fire regimes

Assessing Pacific Northwest water resources stakeholder data needs

Daily time step refinement of optimized flood control rule curves for a global warming scenario

Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA

Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and summertime stream temperature and their possible consequences for freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State.

The effects of climatic change and wildland fires on air quality in national parks and wilderness areas

Assessing regional impacts and adaptation strategies for climate change: The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment as a case study

The relative influences of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation on paralytic shellfish toxin accumulation in Pacific Northwest shellfish

Future climate in the Pacific Northwest

Response of Colorado River runoff to dust radiative forcing in snow

Precipitation extremes and the impacts of climate change on stormwater infrastructure in Washington State

Regional climate model projections for the State of Washington

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation Phenomenon

Re-allocating water in the Pacific Northwest

Mandates vs. markets: Addressing over-allocation of Pacific Northwest river basins

Application of partial least squares regression to the diagnosis of year-to-year variations in Pacific Northwest snowpack and Atlantic hurricanes

Assessment of climate change impact on eastern Washington agriculture

Impacts of 21st century climate change on hydrologic extremes in the Pacific Northwest region of North America

Climate change impacts on water management and irrigated agriculture in the Yakima River basin, Washington, USA

Climate change impacts on water management in the Puget Sound region, Washington, USA

Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics

Attribution of projected changes in U.S. ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations to specific global changes